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Wednesday, December 22
Updated: December 23, 9:04 PM ET
 
War Room: Chiefs at Seahawks

The War Room

Kansas City offense vs. Seattle defense
CHIEFS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 5
Pass 24
Tot. Yds. 13
Scoring 7
Int's allowed 12
Sacks allowed 21
   
SEAHAWKS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 26
vs. Pass 18
Total yds. allowed 25
# of Ints. 25
# of Sacks 33
Turnover differential 0
A solid running game matched by an opportunistic passing game has been the winning equation for the Kansas City Chief's offense. Watching film on this unit is not an exciting chore. The blocking schemes are vanilla, the running back corps has limited speed and flair, and Elvis Grbac is just another guy. However, the effectiveness of this system and the players within cannot be denied.

The Chiefs are averaging 130.1-yards per game on the ground without a premier back. FB Tony Richardson has been the biggest difference for this unit over the current four game winning streak, as he has rushed for 209-yards on 37 carries, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. He has flashed some unexpected speed, but more importantly for this offense is the fact that he is wearing teams down as the game goes on. The Seahawks run defense over their four game losing streak has been a major problem. The team now ranks 26th in the league versus the run, allowing 120.4-yards per game, but that statistic is misleading because of the injury to DT Sam Adams. In the first seven games of the season, when Adams was healthy, DT Cortez Kennedy was dominant in the middle, recording 5 + sacks and 34 tackles. In the three games that Adams sat out because of injury, Kennedy faced regular double and triple teams, recording zero sacks and just 19 tackles. Adams is back healthy and this unit has the potential to once again dominate in the middle. Kennedy is going to see a lot more one-on-one matchups, where he should be able to generate the type of surge and penetration that made this front seven so tough to run on early in the season. The key for the Seahawks is going to be between the tackles. If they can clog the middle and force the Chiefs to bounce the ball outside, Kansas City's running attack and playaction pass game will be effectively neutralized.

QB Elvis Grbac is having his best season as a professional. He looks poised as a passer, taking advantage of single-man coverage on his wideouts off the play action fake, while also exploiting the linebacker coverage on TE Tony Gonzalez. Gonzalez is having a Pro Bowl season because he is such a weapon in the passing game. Gonzalez has scored six of his ten touchdowns in the last four game where he has been matched up against linebackers that do not have the speed to cover him off the line of scrimmage. The Seahawks are going to be forced to pay closer attention to Gonzalez in the passing game, using FS Jay Bellamy in coverage instead of relying on one of their speed linebacker to handle the chore. Bellamy has a ton of range and has the athleticism to stick with Gonzalez, but the concern is the size difference as Gonzalez should be able to muscle himself into position. This is an interesting matchup because what it does is open up some room in the deep third for the Chief's receivers to get down field in mostly single-man coverage situations. The play action passing game is going to be crucial in this game, because the Chiefs are going to take some chances down field. CB Shawn Springs is one of the top cover corners in the league, and will be allocated to man-to-man coverage on Andre Rison. Springs should be able to take Rison out of the game, which will allow SS Darryl Williams to give CB Willie Williams help in the deep-third against WR Derrick Alexander. Alexander has done a fine job of taking advantage of single-man coverage for most of the season. He has established himself as the big play threat on offense, averaging 15.8-yards per catch. If Springs can dominate his matchup with Rison on the outside, the Seahawks should be in good shape using double coverage to Alexander's side of the field.

Seattle offense vs. Kansas City defense
SEAHAWKS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 22
Pass 15
Tot. Yds. 21
Scoring 9
Int's allowed 14
Sacks allowed 34
   
CHIEFS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 13
vs. Pass 16
Total yds. allowed 14
# of Ints. 23
# of Sacks 33
Turnover differential +23
Seattle's offensive struggles stem from their inability to run the ball with any consistency. The team is averaging just 93.9-yards rushing per game, and seems to have gotten away from establishing the ground game during the four game slide. Last week, RB Rickey Watters rushed for 115 yards on just 16 carries, but the effort has not been consistent enough throughout the year. In the first meeting between these two teams on November 21st, Watters for an average of 4.5 yards per carry, and will again need to be the work horse on offense. The problem the Seahawks will face is the fact that Kansas City is healthy up front, and DT's Dan Williams and Chester McGlockton are finally playing up to their billing on the interior defensive line. The key to the Seahawks offensive game plan is going to be its ability to spread the Kansas City defense out with a lot of three-and-four receiver sets to open up running lanes up front.

In the Seattle "West Coast" scheme, the emphasis is on the quarterbacks ability to spread the ball around to his receiving corps in a low-risk fashion. Last week's game against Denver was a perfect example of how effective Dan Kitna can be within the system. He finished the game with 278-yards passing, zero interceptions and used eight different receivers in the process. However, the crux of the Seattle problems has been Kitna's inefficiency as a passer. The receiver/cornerback matchups this week will probably dictate the outcome of the game. Seattle has been running a majority of three-receiver sets with WR's Joey Galloway, Derrick Mayes and Sean Dawkins handling most of the duties at the position. The last time these two teams played, Kansas City varied their defensive attack, using a lot of nickel packages, even on first downs. Nickel corner Eric Warfield was called upon to handle the slot receiver (Dawkins), while James Hasty and Chris Dishman played press coverage on the outside receivers. The interesting part of the coverage was the fact that Kansas City would walk up Reggie Tongue close to the line of scrimmage to either come on the blitz or cover the underneath zone, while Jerome Woods played a deep centerfield. The coverage seemed to bother Kitna, as he finished the game 14 for 33 with an interception. Kitna's problems seemed to stem from Tongue's roaming play in the middle of the field. He had trouble reading the safety in coverage, and got caught throwing into a lot of double coverage situations. Another critical matchup to keep an eye on will be in the slot where Warfield will matchup on Dawkins for most of the afternoon. This is a nickel package matchup that will dictate a lot of Kitna's reads. Dawkins is an excellent slot receiver with great speed to stretch the defense, but Warfield has stood up to the test this season as opponents have targeted the rookie in their three receiver sets.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category KC SEA
Punt return avg. 5 1
Kickoff return avg. 26 8
Opp. punt return avg. 10 28
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 12 3
Time of possession 13 28
Pete Stoyanovich has had an up-and-down season connecting on just 20-of-29, but he is still solid mechanically and has the boom in his leg. Daniel Pope is battling back after a tough start, and now is averaging 42.2-yards per punt. Tamarick Vanover is also coming on strong after a silent first half of the season, and is averaging 11.7-yards per punt return.

Todd Peterson is still one of the top kickers percentage-wise, even after his meltdown two weeks ago against the Chargers. Peterson is now 28-of-34 with a long of 51-yards. Ahman Green has done a soid job as the teams kickoff return specialist, averaging 23.4-yards per return with a long of 54-yards. The punt return unit ranks just about at the bottom of the league, allowing opponents 11.3-yards per return, while the kickoff return group has been spectacular, giving up just 18.2-yards per return.

Key matchups

  • Kansas City TE Tony Gonzalez vs. FS Jay Bellamy
    Gonzalez has established himself as the premier receiving tight end in the league, forcing teams to use defensive backs in coverage, because he is too much for linebackers to handle. Bellamy has a ton of range and has the athleticism to stick with Gonzalez, but the concern is the size difference as Gonzalez should be able to muscle himself into position.

  • Kansas City LG Dave Szott vs. Seattle DT Cortez Kennedy
    Kennedy has battled some nick recently, but seems healthy and should be as much of a presence in the middle as ever. The new one-gap system has worked to Kennedy's strength, because it allows the explosive tackle to get out of his stance and limits his responsibility. Szott is going to have trouble with Kennedy's quickness and strength, but Szott is a crafty veteran that should be able to get in good position and anchor in against the bull rush. This matchup is extremely important because if the Chiefs are forced into using OC Tim Grunhard on the double-team, it will open up a lot more blitz lanes for the Seahawks to exploit.

  • Seattle WR Sean Dawkins vs. Kansas City DC Eric Warfield
    This is a nickel package matchup that is going to be critical to the game. Dawkins is an excellent slot receiver with great speed to stretch the defense, but Warfield has stood up to the test this season as opponents have targeted the rookie in their three receiver sets.

    Kansas City will win if...

  • They establish an inside running game. The Chiefs offense is averaging around 120-yards per game running the ball without one premier back. The offensive line has done an excellent job creating inside surge in the run game, and FB Tony Richardson has been one of the most underrated blockers in the league. Kansas City's offense is predicated on a strong inside run game to soften up the defense and make the play action fake that much more effective.

  • They get the ball in the hands of WR Derrick Alexander. Alexander has done a fine job of taking advantage of single-man coverage for most of the season. He has established himself as the big play threat on offense, averaging 15.8-yards per catch.

  • The defense does a better job of tackling. Kansas City's defense has given up a lot of big plays on defense, mostly due to poor tackling. The Seahawks have some explosive playmakers, especially on the wide receiving corps, that can make plays after the catch. The Chiefs need to keep the play in front of them and force the Seahawks, who are making a lot of mistakes on offense, to sustain drives.

    Seattle will win if...

  • John Kitna makes better decisions when reading coverage. Kitna was impressive early in the season because of his maturity and decision making skills. Recently, teams have been throwing a lot more diverse schemes at the young quarterback, and he is not handling the looks real well.

  • They get RB Rickey Watters in a rhythm running the football. Watters is the type of back that needs to get carries early in the game in order to get his head into the game. He has the ability to take over the game if he gets in the right running rhythm, but the Seahawks have only been giving the back the ball an average of 21 times per game.

  • If CB's Shawn Springs and Willie Williams hold up in single-man coverage. The Seahawks are going to gamble against the Chiefs in order to shut down the running lanes up front. Expect the safeties to play a big role in run support, which means Springs and Williams are going to be forced to play on an island for most first and second down situations.

    The War Room edge
    Two teams, heading in completely opposite directions, square off in what could be the deciding game of the division. The Chiefs are on a four game winning streak as their offense is firing on all cylinders and the defense is taking advantage of the gambling scheme. The Seahawks, however, are on a four game slide and could not be any more frustrated with their execution. Seattle has a chance to redeem itself and jump right back into the thick of things with a win at home on Sunday. The Chiefs are playing better football, but Mike Holmgren's team is not going to lose five in a row, especially not a big game like this one in front of a home crowd.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
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