The 2026 NFL season is underway, and while it's still very early, we're already starting to track the playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LXI. Which teams have the best chances to make the 14-team postseason field? Which have a lot of work to do to ultimately get in?
We used ESPN's Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl in February. Plus, we also have the FPI's projections for every game on the upcoming slate and how a win -- or a loss -- might impact each team's playoff chances, independent of other results.
Here's everything you need to know about the playoff picture right now, including which teams are trending up and down in each conference.
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AFC picture | NFC picture
Game stakes
Trending up after Week 4: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have the second-best odds at making the playoffs in the AFC, and they're the second-best team in ESPN's overall FPI rankings. A big reason for their 3-1 start has been their stout defense, which hasn't allowed more than 20 points in 10 consecutive regular-season games. Now, the Jaguars head to London to face the Eagles and Texans. ESPN Analytics gives the Jaguars a 45% chance of going 2-0 before flying back to the United States.
Trending down after Week 4: Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh had a chance to start 2-0 in the AFC North, but it fell to Browns in Week 4 on a last-second field goal. Now, it has less than a 10% chance to win the division. The Steelers struggled in the trenches against Cleveland. Aaron Rodgers took his most sacks in a game with the Steelers (five), while Deshaun Watson faced his lowest pressure rate in a Browns uniform (22%).
Trending up after Week 4: Atlanta Falcons
After an 0-2 start, ESPN Analytics had the Falcons with a 1.9% chance of making the playoffs. But with back-to-back wins on the road by 20-plus points, they're up to 36%. Now, Atlanta gets to head back home for a Sunday night matchup against the Ravens, who could be without quarterback Lamar Jackson (ankle).
Trending down after Week 4: Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have had the exact opposite start to the Falcons, losing their past two games after starting 2-0. Philly's playoff chances have dropped from 65.1% after Week 2 to under 25% now. What's concerning is the Eagles' depleted and stale offense. They haven't converted on 17 straight third downs, going back to Week 3.
NFL playoff schedule
Jan. 16-18, 2027: Wild-card round
Jan. 23-24: Divisional round
Jan. 31: AFC and NFC championship games
Feb. 14: Super Bowl LXI (in Los Angeles)