| Thursday, September 7
By Jeff Potrykus
Special to ESPN.com |
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The importance of Kansas State's trip to Nebraska on Saturday cannot be exaggerated.
If the Wildcats (9-0 overall, 6-0 Big 12) lose for the 16th consecutive time in Lincoln, coach Bill Snyder and his players can wave goodbye to an unbeaten season, the North Division title, a berth in the Big 12 title game and a chance to qualify for the national championship game.
Not much on the line, is there?
But here's the kicker. Even if the Wildcats win on Saturday, win the Big 12 title game and finish the regular season unbeaten, they might still get shut out of the Sugar Bowl. And it isn't impossible that they would be forced to watch a team with a loss, perhaps two once-beaten teams, vie for the national title.
|  | | Bill Snyder and Kansas State face a surprising Washington team. |
Confused? Let's do the math.
Kansas State is ranked No. 5 in the latest Bowl Championship Series rankings. The Wildcats (11.90 points) are behind two other unbeaten teams -- No. 1 Florida State (2.64 points), and No. 3 Virginia Tech (7.40 points).
No shame in trailing the Seminoles and the Hokies.
However, once-beaten Tennessee is No. 2 with 7.07 points and once-beaten Florida is No. 4 with 9.89 points, setting up the possibility of an all-Southeastern Conference matchup in the national title game. Nebraska (8-1, 5-1) is right behind Kansas State at No. 6 with 14.76 points.
The prime suspect keeping the Wildcats from moving any higher thus far has been -- Surprise! -- their own strength of schedule. Ranked No. 76 nationally, it is the second-weakest schedule among the top 15 teams in the BCS rankings. Only No. 10 Mississippi State is worse, with the 94th-ranked schedule.
That disparity cost the Wildcats a whopping 2.72 points compared to Florida, which has the No. 8 schedule. With a stronger non-conference schedule, the Wildcats would be ranked ahead of Florida and closing in on Virginia Tech.
Snyder, who was criticized last season for the Wildcats' weak schedule, doesn't seem to care. He rolled the dice in '98, only to see his team lose to Texas A&M in the Big 12 title game. And he doesn't seem to be worried about his team's BCS ranking in '99, either.
"There seems to be so much made of the final two in the BCS and if you're not there," Snyder said, "I don't know what that relegates you to, what position in life."
Also-rans? National pretenders, rather than contenders?
"I guess so," Snyder said. "And to my way of thinking that is kind of unfortunate. There's so many great programs out there and tremendous football teams and great players who enjoy the game.
"And certainly everybody wants to climb to the top. But if you don't get there, to me it doesn't mean that they need to cash in their football membership card. You still have young people that are worth their salt and have done great jobs for their universities."
Over the years, Nebraska's players certainly have done a great job for their school, particularly when it comes to whipping the Wildcats. The Cornhuskers, whose schedule is rated No. 35, haven't lost at home to Kansas State since 1968. During that 15-game run, they have outscored the Wildcats by a combined 743-196, or by an average of 49.5-13.1.
OK, so the Wildcats beat the Cornhuskers last season in Manhattan, ending a 29-game losing streak in the series. But the Nebraska players remember; defensive back Ralph Brown has guaranteed a victory. Despite an earlier loss to Texas -- a team Kansas State has already beaten -- the Cornhuskers are good enough to ruin Kansas State's national title hopes.
While no one can be certain who will win Saturday, what seems certain is that as long as Snyder is around, Kansas State officials don't seem inclined to beef up their non-conference schedule.
In 2000, Ball State and North Texas are on the schedule, along with Iowa in the Eddie Robinson Classic. One open date remains. In 2001, New Mexico State is on the schedule, leaving three open dates. In 2002, Southwest Louisiana, Utah State and Arkansas State have been penciled in, leaving one open date. And in 2003, Eastern Michigan is the only non-conference foe set.
"We don't worry about the BCS," Snyder said earlier this season. "We only want to do things that give you a chance to be successful on Saturday.
"How good is the BCS? How bad is the BCS? I don't really know. I wasn't really enamored with it a year ago and that hasn't changed."
Classy in victory, classy in defeat
As you watched Glen Mason and Joe Paterno embrace on the field after seconds after Minnesota's stunning 24-23 victory in Happy Valley, you understood Mason's spontaneous emotional explosion.
Mason, in the third year of his rebuilding program at Minnesota, had just seen his team record its sixth victory of the season by toppling the No. 2 team in country on a last-second field goal. The Gophers, who had lost their previous three games by a combined 11 points, are 6-3 and likely bound for a bowl for the first time since 1986.
Naturally, Mason reacted as if he had just won the lottery -- seconds after seeing his first child born.
"To go from a loser to a winner in that type of fashion," Mason said, "against Penn State and in State College, is magnificent."
What you didn't quite understand, though, was the manner in which Paterno reacted. Despite seeing his team's unbeaten season and dreams of a national championship destroyed in a matter of seconds, Paterno seemed thrilled for his conqueror.
In reality, he was.
"I like Glen," Paterno explained. "I've known Glen a long time. I know how hard he has worked. And I felt he should have beaten us two years ago. But because of circumstances, the game was literally taken away from his team."
The specific circumstances of the '97 game in State College were these: Minnesota tailback Thomas Hamner lost a fumble at his own 10-yard line with 4 minutes, 4 seconds left and the Gophers clinging to a 15-10 lead. The Nittany Lions turned the turnover into a touchdown and a 16-15 victory.
On Saturday, both Mason and Hamner were vindicated. Mason beat Paterno for the first time since taking over the Minnesota program and Hamner rushed for 96 yards and caught a 49-yard touchdown pass that gave the Gophers a 21-20 lead in the fourth quarter.
"You'd like it to be in a situation where you have respect for the other guy," Paterno said of suffering a loss, "and you appreciate how much (work) has gone into it. He had lost three tough games prior to our football game, against really good football teams.
"And I was happy for him. I was happy for the Minnesota kids because of the fact that I felt they should have beaten us a couple of years ago and had it taken away from them."
Even Mason, still savoring the victory several days later, admitted to experiencing mixed emotions.
"When you start talking about classy guys, they ought to put his picture next to that in the dictionary," Mason said of Paterno. "I'm sure he was just devastated for himself and his team. But at the same time, it's a game. And you are supposed to go out there and compete.
"I've got to be honest with you. I had mixed emotions in shaking Joe Paterno's hand. I felt very good for myself and for my program and for my coaches. But at the same time I felt sorry for Joe Paterno. And I've never felt that way before in coaching."
Rushing toward history
Wisconsin fans are ready to party.
Tailback Ron Dayne, their adopted son of the last four years, needs a mere 99 yards Saturday against Iowa to break Ricky Williams' NCAA Division I-A all-time rushing mark.
The consensus on campus and throughout Madison is that Dayne will own the record, and the Heisman Trophy, by halftime. A measly 99 yards? The Iowa defense is rated 109th nationally against the run (220.1 yards) and Dayne has rushed for more than 200 yards in two of the last three games and is second nationally in rushing at 168.1 yards per game.
But could the Iowa defenders rise up and prevent Dayne from setting the record? If that is to happen, an inexperienced front seven will have to fashion its finest performance of the season.
Senior defensive tackle Corey Brown and sophomore defensive tackle Jerry Montgomery are both first-year starters. Senior defensive end Scott Pospisil is a first-year starter. Ditto for junior outside linebacker LeVar Woods and freshman outside linebacker Fred Barr.
By contrast, Wisconsin's offensive line has a combined 160 starts.
When Dayne runs up the middle against those inexperienced tackles, he'll be working behind three juniors who started as redshirt freshmen and have a combined 102 starts. Left guard Bill Ferrario (35 starts), right guard Dave Costa (34) and center Casey Rabach (33) aren't going to be fooled or intimidated by Iowa's interior defense.
And left tackle Chris McIntosh, who has started every game at Wisconsin (48), likely will be lining up against a first-year starter in Pospisil. In addition, the 6-foot-4, 260-pound Pospisil will be giving up 3 inches and 50 pounds to the 6-7, 310-pound McIntosh.
The Badgers have run effectively behind McIntosh all season and they won't stray from that side Saturday. However, don't think they can't run to their right side. Right tackle Mark Tauscher, a fifth-year senior who is in his first season as a starter, has played surprisingly well. And when Dayne ripped off a tie-breaking 41-yard touchdown last week against Purdue, he broke loose around Tauscher's side.
Look for Iowa's defensive backs to be busy, as they have been all season. Strong safety Matt Bowen leads the team in tackles with 92, which is 17 more than anyone else on the team. Senior cornerback Tarig Holman is No. 5 on the team in tackles with 53.
"He is going to get his yards, like a great scorer in basketball is going to get his points," Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said of Dayne. "We're going to try to slow him down and contain him a little bit, no question about it.
"But to think that we're just going to go in there and shut him down, that would be kind of foolish. We're going to try to keep him under control. We don't him just to run through us, which he is capable of doing against anybody."
Jeff Potrykus of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.
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