To be honest with you, forecasting is fun when you're doing it alone. When you know your private picks are about to become public record, you get a little intimidated.

	In his fourth season in Miami, Jimmy Johnson might have the Dolphins ready to take a Super step.

On sentiment alone, it is easy to justify the Miami Dolphins reaching the Super Bowl because of Dan Marino. And the Dolphins have the talent.

But the AFC field is riddled with so many traps that a lot can happen between now and Jan. 30 when the Super Bowl is played in Atlanta.

The greatest intrigue easily surrounds the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos, who are trying to make history without one of the greatest quarterbacks in history, John Elway. It isn't just Elway's ability on the field (remember, he was the MVP of Super Bowl XXXIII), but his presence in the locker room, that the Broncos will miss.

Broncos coach Mike Shanahan clearly senses the urgency. His sudden switch to Brian Griese at quarterback sends that message to his players. There will be no complacency in the Denver camp.

But there are too many sharks swimming in the water, or sharks disguised as Dolphins, Jaguars, Jets and Bills.

It's going to be a tough deal for Denver.

The team with the best chance to unseat the Broncos is Jacksonville. The AFC Central is down, and the Jaguars have a chance to capture that precious home-field advantage. Jaguars coach Tim Coughlin has a team that is primed for a big run.

In the NFC, the Minnesota Vikings remain loaded with talent, but there's a sense here that we're in for a surprise. Is it the Giants? The Redskins? The Buccaneers? The Cowboys?

Maybe, but the gut pick is the Green Bay Packers. Brett Favre is on a mission to prove a few things, one of them being that he's not just another great quarterback, but one of the greatest who ever played. He has re-dedicated himself, and he would like nothing better than to return to the Super Bowl without his former coach, Mike Holmgren.

So, here's some logic behind the madness:

AFC East
1. Miami Dolphins:
Great defense, spiced with playmakers like cornerback Sam Madison, linebacker Zach Thomas and defensive end Jason Taylor. Jimmy Johnson expects his special teams to be among the league's best. So it comes down to offense, and here are two reasons why the Dolphins will win football's best division: Cecil Collins and Tony Martin. Some of those Olindo Mare field goals will turn into touchdowns. Dan Marino ain't what he used to be, but he's good enough with a new level of skill players.

2. New York Jets: It's hard to bet against a determined Bill Parcells. This team should score plenty of points with Vinny Testaverde proving his '98 Pro Bowl season was not a fluke and Parcells pushing the envelope. In other words, there's no relaxing against the Jets. Look for Curtis Martin to enjoy his best season yet. Defensively, the back seven is strong, although defensive coordinator Bill Belichick draws it up better than the talent.

3. Buffalo Bills: Doug Flutie knows how to make plays. No, teams won't figure out how to stop him. Eric Moulds has stepped into the elite class of receivers. The biggest issue is the offensive line and running game behind Antowain Smith. But here's a guy you should not forget: Thurman Thomas. On the defensive side, Bruce Smith leads one of the league's best units.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Peyton Manning has arrived. It's his team, his offense, and it is one that figures to put points on the board with WR Marvin Harrison making a Pro Bowl run. Edgerrin James should be in contention for Rookie of the Year in this spread offense. Defensively, front-office boss Bill Polian has given coach Jim Mora better players, but it still falls a little short.

5. New England Patriots: Maybe this is too much of a downgrade. QB Drew Bledsoe can throw it with the best, and he's got a bunch of people to throw to, most notably a healthy (for now) Terry Glenn. But the offensive line and running game are suspect, and the defense will again miss MLB Ted Johnson. If the defense can create turnovers, the Pats are capable of anything.

AFC Central
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Tom Coughlin's hard work should finally pay huge dividends. The key: Mark Brunell must stay healthy. The established threat of RB Fred Taylor should keep defenses honest and Brunell on the field. Coughlin's brilliant offseason strokes were hiring ex-Carolina coach Dom Capers, signing Steelers free-agent safety Carnell Lake, and picking up a couple of gems in the draft in CB Fernando Bryant and DT Larry Smith.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers: All eyes are again on Kordell Stewart and how he'll respond to new offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride. If Jerome Bettis can get his 300-plus carries, then the Steelers have a chance. Rookie WR Troy Edwards has star potential. Despite another tough free-agent blow (Lake), Bill Cowher's defense will never play soft. This is an iffy team, based on the big if: Stewart.

3. Tennessee Titans: This is the year Steve McNair is either going to emerge as a true franchise QB, or be just another guy. McNair must push the ball downfield to Yancey Thigpen and Kevin Dyson, or else Eddie George will face the same eight- and nine-man fronts he saw at the end of the '98 season. Jeff Fisher's defense should be solid, but the Titans need more than solid.

4. Baltimore Ravens: Brian Billick will bring a little pizzaz to this club. If he can somehow work a miracle with QB Scott Mitchell, the Ravens are capable of moving into the second-place slot. That's because the defense is loaded with Pro Bowl talent.

5. Cincinnati Bengals: Some people might call this a reach because the Bengals have shown almost no promise in the preseason. Corey Dillon needs a big year to take the heat off QB Jeff Blake, who probably won't have WR Carl Pickens around. The defense should be OK with ILB Takeo Spikes emerging as a star, but the Bengals do little to inspire anybody.

6. Cleveland Browns: Chris Palmer has had a whirlwind start with a short window to get the new Browns ready for their re-entry into the NFL. They should have their competitive moments because the defense is solid. The offense will struggle to score points because the skill talent isn't there yet. Ty Detmer plays until Tim Couch is ready.

AFC West
1. Denver Broncos: Mike Shanahan has tampered with the chemistry here by cutting loose popular safety Steve Atwater and benching likeable veteran Bubby Brister in favor of Brian Griese as John Elway's replacement. But this team has a great system, and the centerpiece is Terrell Davis. The defense should be improved with CB Dale Carter, but Davis will have to run for 2,300 yards to compensate for the loss of Elway.

2. Seattle Seahawks: First, the obvious: Mike Holmgren can coach. But Holmgren has three big question marks that keep this team from achieving greater heights: Can the defense overcome the death of defensive coordinator Fritz Shurmur? Are Jon Kitna or Glenn Foley playoff-caliber quarterbacks? Will Joey Galloway play out his threat to sit the year in a contract dispute?

3. Oakland Raiders: Jon Gruden has settled things down in Oakland, and it would appear QB Rich Gannon was a nice pickup. But will it click on offense? Tim Brown can't do it all. A defense led by young stars like DT Darrell Russell and CB Charles Woodson makes a lot of teams nervous.

4. San Diego Chargers: Junior Seau on defense, Junior Seau on offense. Yes, it's Seau's team, although Mike Riley is the new coach, and it would be a mistake to underestimate his potential because of his nice-guy personality. The defense is excellent while the offense has reputable QBs in Jim Harbaugh and Erik Kramer. There just aren't any receivers to count on -- Seau might turn out to be a nice tight end, but he's no deep threat. Natrone Means must stay healthy at RB.

5. Kansas City Chiefs: This team looked out of synch this preseason. Elvis Grbac was plagued by a tired arm; Chiefs fans were growing tired of him. Warren Moon is in waiting. But the offense lacked identity, and new coach Gunther Cunningham must give it a direction. Defensively, the Chiefs will have their moments, but they need Derrick Thomas and Chester McGlockton to dominate.

NFC East
1. New York Giants: It's very possible QB Kent Graham has caught lightning in the bottle. He could become this year's Chris Chandler, especially with the emergence of WRs Amani Toomer and Ike Hilliard. Coach Jim Fassel is deeper at running back, has a better offensive line, and the defense has one of the game's premier players in DE Michael Strahan. CB Jason Sehorn needs to be on the field early in the season, however.

2. Washington Redskins: If new owner Dan Snyder has done anything, he has created an urgency in the organization. If Norv Turner can keep Brad Johnson healthy, this offense will move the ball and score enough points. The Redskins should be greatly improved on defense, thanks to the underrated free-agent signing of DE Marco Coleman, who provides great leadership. Champ Bailey can learn from the maestro, Darrell Green; watch Bailey provide some big plays.

3. Dallas Cowboys: This Cowboys team is better than the one that went undefeated in the division a year ago. But the division, thanks to the Giants and Redskins, is much improved, and Dallas' schedule will make it tough to repeat as champion. The return of Mark Stepnoski at center should make this offense more stable. QB Troy Aikman remains eerily accurate, and RB Emmitt Smith will not fade. The defense is younger and faster, but it will take a fully healthy Deion Sanders for the Cowboys to keep their title.

4. Arizona Cardinals: All that hope went up in smoke with a rough offseason and preseason. A few key veterans are gone, there were too many contract problems. Combine that with the iffy return of DT Eric Swann, and QB Jake Plummer will have to step into a different stratosphere to pull the Cardinals above .500. Plummer has that magic to him, but magic, remember, is just an illusion.

5. Philadelphia Eagles: New coach Andy Reid is being careful to build a foundation first. He wants a team of character that does not make stupid mistakes. The offense won't scare anyone, but QB Doug Pederson understands it. Reid's biggest problem will be dealing with Philadelphia fans who want Donovan McNabb to do it now. It won't be long.