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Thursday, December 30
War Room: Cardinals at Packers


Arizona offense vs. Green Bay defense
CARDINALS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 29
Pass 28
Tot. Yds. 31
Scoring 30
Int's allowed 27
Sacks allowed 42
   
PACKERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 22
vs. Pass 12
Total yds. allowed 16
# of Ints. 23
# of Sacks 27
Turnover differential +2
The Cardinals offense sputtered badly in the second half last Sunday, as QB Jake Plummer continues to spray the ball around the field. However, when he spreads the ball around to all his weapons, Plummer can effectively lead this unit, as he did last week on a pair of impressive scoring drives.

The biggest problem the third-year signal-caller is having relates to his field vision. Plummer isn't seeing the field well at all and WR Rob Moore's vertical presence has been non-existent the past month. Since hauling in seven passes for 102 yards against the Giants in late November, Moore has been held under 40 yards receiving the last four games.

If the Cards can continue to work TE Terry Hardy (4 rec., 38 yds.) like they did early on against the Falcons, it should open up post and corner routes for Moore and WR David Boston.

The guy that Arizona should go after is struggling rookie DC Mike McKenzie. After starting the season as one of Green Bay's most dependable defenders, McKenzie has been victimized as of late and a veteran player like Moore should be able to take advantage of his inexperience.

Green Bay's lack of a pass rush has killed them all season and last week's loss to Tampa was no different. The Packers have registered only one sack in the past three games and Tampa used a lot of maximum protection to double-team DE's Vonnie Holliday and Keith McKenzie on more than half of the passing downs. Defensive coordinator Emmitt Thomas even tried using newly signed DE Roy Barker on 14 snaps but he too was a non-factor.

While neither Mario Bates nor Murrell is known for their receiving ability -- the pair has combined for just two receptions all season -- Arizona must test Green Bay's nickel package, especially LB's Jim Nelson and Jude Waddy. The Bucs did an excellent job of this last week -- flooding one side of the field with their receivers and slipping RB Warrick Dunn out of the backfield, where he was isolated on a linebacker.

After being notified by the coaching staff of his starting assignment just prior to kickoff, backup Bates did a nice job of running the ball early before the Cards were forced to the air when they fell behind big to the Falcons. Bates, who rushed 14 times for 39 yards and scored a pair of goal line touchdowns, should have some success against a run defense that is giving up almost 115 yards per game on the ground.

Still, the Packers are getting solid run defense up the middle from DTs Santana Dotson and Gilbert Brown. While neither is getting a consistent push against the pass, both veterans are playing their best ball of the season versus the run and should dominate a young Arizona interior line.

Green Bay offense vs. Arizona defense
PACKERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 23
Pass 8
Tot. Yds. 12
Scoring 15
Int's allowed 22
Sacks allowed 34
   
CARDINALS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 30
vs. Pass 7
Total yds. allowed 19
# of Ints. 16
# of Sacks 31
Turnover differential -10
Arizona stumbles into this game a battered and beaten group. In last week's loss at Atlanta, only five defensive starters -- DT Jerry Drake, MLB Ronald McKinnon, OLB Rob Fredrickson, DE Simeon Rice, and FS Kwame Lassiter -- made it through the contest unscathed.

While they were within striking distance at 21-14 heading out of the locker room at halftime, the Cardinals allowed Falcons' QB Chris Chandler to orchestrate at demoralizing 10:21 drive to start the second half. Arizona's defense never recovered, surrendering 30 unanswered points to a suspect Atlanta offense.

The Packers have a lot of corrections to make in practice this week in order to duplicate the Falcons' performance. Consistent breakdowns in the passing game continue to haunt the Packers. Last week the culprit was WR Bill Schroeder, who had four drops and a costly fumble in Packers' territory. WR Corey Bradford did his best to compliment Schroeder with a pair of drops of his own.

Without the benefit of a running game to setup play-action, QB Brett Favre continues to force the ball into coverage in a passing scheme that often appears ill conceived. Green Bay kept its running backs and tight ends in to block on passing downs more than usual against the Bucs and it resulted in very few options (two or three receivers) for Favre.

With shut-down artist DC Aeneas Williams at less than full strength, WR Antonio Freeman needs to find a way to make an impact this week. Although he notched his third consecutive 1,000-yard season against Tampa Bay, Freeman hasn't caught a ball over 28 yards in the past nine games. The lack of a big play dimension in the passing game will allow the Cards to overplay the underneath routes and negate RB Dorsey Levens' role on screens and dump-offs.

Green Bay's futility on the ground continued again last week, as they were held to just 12 yards rushing -- the second lowest total in franchise history. Levens, who was held to just six yards on ten carries, never even had a chance against the Bucs' swarming defense.

Arizona's injury-riddled unit is exactly what Levens could use to get untracked in the finale. Because of all the injuries, defensive coordinator Dave McGinnis has been forced to insert many of his players out of position. For example, OLB Patrick Sapp lined up at defensive end for much of last week's game and would stand little chance holding up against the run versus OT's Mike Wahle and Earl Dotson.

The Cards are giving up a staggering 139.3 yards (4.1 avg.) per game on the ground and a marginal Falons' backfield netted 163 last Sunday. One thing the Packers must do to create opportunities for Levens is spread the field and run draw plays up the middle behind resurgent OC Frank Winters. If the Packers are going to minimize FB William Henderson's role with more multiple-receiver sets, as they did a week ago, the draw would attack the soft middle of Arizona's defense.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category GB ARI
Punt return avg. 26 8
Kickoff return avg. 31 10
Opp. punt return avg. 10 4
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 10 9
Time of possession 24 30
Because their offense is struggling to score points, the Packers desperately need a better effort from P Louis Aguiar, who averaged just 36 yards per attempt in last week's loss. After reviewing film of the Tampa game, Green Bay's coaching staff noticed that the receiver on the Bucs' fake punt attempt was actually ineligible and the play should have never counted. It's hard to fault the Packers for that one. This could finally be the week that Arizona PR Mac Cody breaks a long return. Although he has been close countless other times, the Packers' susceptible coverage teams should provide enough opportunities. Green Bay RS Charles Jordan was unimpressive against the Bucs, failing to field the ball cleanly on numerous occasions, so don't be surprised if special teams coach Steve Ortmeyer goes back to Antuan Edwards on punts and Basil Mitchell on kickoffs.

Key matchups

  • Arizona QB Jake Plummer vs. Green Bay SS LeRoy Butler
    The Packers blitzed less last Sunday than they did two weeks ago and it resulted in little pressure on Tampa Bay QB Shaun King. Third-year player Plummer has yet to face a safety that blitzes as well as Butler and the Packers will probably revert back to using him after registering just one sack the past three weeks.

  • Arizona RBs Bates and Murrell vs. Green Bay MLB Bernardo Harris
    With Michael Pittman still banged up, Bates and Murrell must carry the load on Sunday. Big backs have had success wearing down the Packers this season and the Cards have a chance at pulling off the upset if they keep Favre off the field.

  • Green Bay FB William Henderson vs. Arizona MLB Ronald McKinnon
    Green Bay's struggling ground game can be attributed to many things, but not the play of Henderson. Offensive coordinator Sherm Lewis needs to commit himself to the run, with Henderson's lead blocking as the focal point.

    Green Bay will win if...

  • The offensive line protects QB Favre. This unit did a respectable job last week against the Bucs and they should get a reprieve with some of the Cards' starters banged up. With instability at the left tackle position, look for RDE Simeon Rice to play a major role in Sunday's outcome. Look for Arizona to go with another blitz-heavy scheme this week against the Pack.

  • They force a couple of early turnovers. DC Williams' interceptions sparked the team last week and QB Plummer is a guy they should be able to rattle with some pressure in the first quarter. The question is, who will supply the pressure?

  • RB Levens gets on track. The Packers have not consistently run the ball well in the second half the past few weeks and it has put too much pressure on the passing game. Levens normally plays extremely well in the inclement conditions at Lambeau and Arizona was thrashed last week by one of the worst running teams in the league (Atlanta).

    Arizona will win if...

  • They establish balance offensively. Head coach Vince Tobin doesn't expect QB Plummer to win this game on his own. The Cardinals will be able to expose some mismatches in the passing game if RBs Murrell and Bates are able to keep the Packers from sagging into coverage.

  • They can keep it close until the fourth quarter. The Packers haven't been able to put away opponents all season and the Cards stand a good chance of pulling the upset if they can stick around until the final quarter. Victories in Lambeau by Carolina and Chicago give Arizona hope.

  • They defend well on third down. Arizona had too many blown assignments last Sunday against Atlanta and they'll be facing much better receivers on Sunday. While WR's Freeman, Bradford, and Schroeder can all make the big play, they rarely come up with the key receptions to sustain drives.

    The War Room edge
    Green Bay is a team that appears to be packing it in for the season. After holding a lead at half time on the road at Tampa Bay, the Packers didn't compete in the second half. While it will take a long shot for them to get into the playoffs, they at least have something to play for on Sunday. Conversely, the Cardinals were eliminated from the playoff picture last week in Atlanta and they seem destined to drop another without any semblance of a running game. Look for Green Bay head into a long off-season with an inconsequential victory.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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