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Thursday, December 30 War Room: Ravens at Patriots The War Room Baltimore offense vs. New England defense
New England is allowing 111.7 yards per game on the ground, but has been much more equipped to stop the run since the return of MLB Ted Johnson. Johnson has done an excellent job of jumping back into the lineup, giving the Patriots production between the tackles versus the run. The Patriots defensive tackles have been stout in the middle, and are not wearing down as easily as they were in the beginning of the season when they had such a huge responsibility to protect rookie MLB Andy Katzenmoyer. The newest challenge for front seven now is to protect its defensive backfield, which means the linebacking corps needs to be more active either on the blitz to get to the quarterback or in coverage. The Patriots have undergone an almost complete overhaul in the secondary because of injury. Injuries to cornerbacks Ty Law (broken hand), Steve Israel (sprained ankle) and safety Chris Carter (hamstring) left the Patriots with rookie Kato Serwanga at cornerback, rookie Tony George at free safety and second year man Tebucky Jones at cornerback, as well as first-year player Terry Billups in the nickel package. That is expected to be the lineup for this game as well. Even though Serwanga and Jones have held up marvelously for inexperienced players at the cornerback positions, the Ravens marginal receiving corps is improving and should be able to generate some offense in the passing game. The key to this game is the fact that head coach Brian Billick is one of the best offensive coordinators in the league when it comes to creating matchups for his receiving corps.Everyone looks at the offensive production and the passing numbers of QB Tony Banks and automatically assumes that Banks has done a 180-degree turnaround as a passer. What is really happening in this offense is that the system has been scaled down and the reads for Banks have been reduced. Banks is still making mistakes -- in the last two games he has been under 50% passing -- but he is making a lot more big plays as a passer. The offensive scheme has been tailored to Banks abilities, making his reads simpler and his role in the offense is more defined. The Raven receivers are among the worst unit as a whole in the entire NFL, but Billick has done such a great job of working matchups and putting his receivers in position, that the offense is benefiting from the scheme. This is important to note because of the inexperience in the Patriot secondary. On paper, the matchups for the receiving corps looks to be even, but the Baltimore passing scheme is going to be the difference as they will exploit New England's weaknesses and capitalize on a few breakdowns for big plays.
New England offense vs. Baltimore defense
This week, the task will not be as easy as the Ravens come into town allowing just 78.8 yards per game on the ground -- second in the entire league. Baltimore's defensive tackles, Tony Siragusa, Larry Webster and Lional Dalton can take the majority of the credit for this stout run-defense unit because of their ability to clog up the interior of the opponents offensive line, forcing teams to string the ball outside where they are usually met by the athletic, speed-oriented Baltimore linebacking corps. Allen is a crafty, veteran runner with solid skills, but if the holes are not created up front, he is usually ineffective as a runner because he only possesses marginal speed, burst and quickness. The Raven's big advantage against the Patriots is the that they can create a pass rush without having to use a heavy blitz scheme with their linebackers. This allows the unit to play very disciplined, filling holes and keeping containment on the edges. New England is going to struggle to establish a running attack against the Ravens because they will not catch them off guard, and the offensive line is not big enough or physical enough to create a surge against Baltimore's front four. The Patriot passing woes are no secret. Bledsoe is getting limited time to make his reads and throws in the pocket, and the veteran quarterback has reverted to a lot of his old habits -- keying on receivers and throwing off his back foot. Bledsoe provided his worst performance of his seven-year career last week, completing 10-of-21 passes for just 101 yards. Teams are still pressing the Patriot receivers when they blitz, forcing Bledsoe to make hot-reads to his receiving corps that has shown very little ability to break free from the tight coverage on the line of scrimmage. Bledsoe gets WR Terry Glenn back after he missed last weeks' game with a 101 temperature, but the passing woes still existed with Glenn in the lineup. Baltimore's cornerbacks are not spectacular, but are solid enough in coverage that they should be able to hold up with a strong pass rush. DeRon Jenkins, Chris McAllister and Duane Starks are all a bit undersized, but play physical enough that the team ought to be able to play the usual tight, man-to-man coverage that the Patriot receivers have proven completely ineffective against. The key for the Ravens is getting to Bledsoe to throw off the timing of offensive coordinator Ernie Zampese's offense. Baltimore ranks 11th in the league in pass defense, but they have sacked opponents 47 times this season and their constant pressure should be enough to throw off Bledsoe and the Patriot passing attack.
Special teams
Key matchups Because Ted Johnson is still not at full strength, the Patriots are using Katzenmoyer in most the nickel packages, where he is generally assigned to the back out of the backfield. The Ravens have found tremendous success in recent weeks spreading the ball around the field, getting the running backs involved in the passing game. Evans is an athletic and versatile fullback who does an excellent job of catching the ball and is a threat in the open field because of his size/speed ratio. Katzenmoyer will key on Evans, looking to take him out of the passing game as well as using the fullbacks' movements to dictate his assignments.
This becomes the critical matchup on this side of the ball. Israel has been nicked up the past few weeks, and was not even active in last week's game versus the Bills. He will be lined up on the speedster Ismail in what should be a matchup that dictates the secondary's approach for the Patriots. If Israel has trouble with this matchup in the deep third, as we suspect, the Ravens' complementary receivers are going to get a lot more room underneath to work. New England is going to have to use more of a cover two look, which gives the Raven running backs, tight ends and slot receivers plenty of space in the short-to-intermediate zone.
The marquee matchup in the trenches. Armstrong has undoubtedly been slowed by injury and age, but he is still one of the top pass blocking offensive tackles in the league. He has slimmed down some and plays better against speed rush defensive ends, which bodes well against a guy like McCrary. McCrary is having a career year with 8.5 sacks, emerging as one of the top edge rushers in all of football. McCrary will be aided by a heavy blitz package aimed to pressure Drew Bledsoe and throw the timing off in the passing game. This will give McCrary mostly one-on-one situations against the aging veteran and should even confuse the offensive line enough in the stunt/twist package to give him some free shots at the Patriot quarterback.
Baltimore will win if...
New England will win if...
The War Room edge
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