Cincinnati offense vs. Jacksonville defense

	BENGALS OFFENSE
	Ranking in the NFL:
	Run	4
	Pass	19
	Tot. Yds.	9
	Scoring	22
	Int's allowed	16
	Sacks allowed	49
	JAGUARS DEFENSE
	Ranking in the NFL:
	vs. Run	5
	vs. Pass	9
	Total yds. allowed	5
	# of Ints.	17
	# of Sacks	54
	Turnover differential	+11

The Bengals are finished with their typical late-season winning streak that means nothing, and it is now back to reality for the 4-11 franchise. Offensively, Cincinnati took a huge blow when RB Corey Dillon left the game with a sprained left knee. Dillon is listed as questionable, and even though it looks like he will play at least sparingly on Sunday, the featured back is not going to be a threat and should be extremely ineffective against the speed of the Jacksonville defense.

The Bengals are forced to turn to RB Michael Basnight in relief of Dillon, and even though he carried the ball for an average of 4.1-yards on 10 carries, Basnight is not elusive or powerful enough to make a difference.

The Jaguars are coming off a disturbing 41-14 loss to the Tennessee Titans, and are now forced to win for the rights to the AFC Central championship title. Jacksonville was exposed last week defensively, allowing the Titans to rush for 148 yards on 37 carries, and much of the blame can be placed on a defensive front four that got hardly any penetration, allowing the offensive line to get out and seal off the linebacking corps.

MLB Lonnie Marts is the man to watch for Jacksonville in order to get a feel of how effective the defense is going to be against the run. If Marts has room to move around in the box, the Jaguars are a tough team to run the football on because it means that the front four, especially DT's Seth Payne and Larry Walker, are doing their job. If Marts is constantly fighting over traffic, than the offensive line is getting too much room to work and Payne and Walker are being handled.

The Bengals are going to have to run the ball to avoid a catch-up situation. The key to running the ball is going to be the play of the interior line. O'Dwyer and Leeuwenburgh are solid veterans who have been disappointments for the Bengals this season, and need to step up their level of play against Payne and Walker.

If Jacksonville does not get to QB Jeff Blake, the press coverage on Scott and Pickens could backfire because Beasley and Bryant will have to hold up too long. These are two outstanding cover corners, but when left on an island for an extended period of time, even the best cover corners will get burned.

Despite the implications of this game concerning the AFC Central, this game is an excellent test for the Jaguars, who need to do a better job of coverage in the deep third, and need to improve the consistency of their pass rush in the nickel package.

Jacksonville offense vs. Cincinnati defense

	JAGUARS OFFENSE
	Ranking in the NFL:
	Run	2
	Pass	16
	Tot. Yds.	8
	Scoring	6
	Int's allowed	11
	Sacks allowed	39
	BENGALS DEFENSE
	Ranking in the NFL:
	vs. Run	15
	vs. Pass	27
	Total yds. allowed	23
	# of Ints.	12
	# of Sacks	33
	Turnover differential	-4

Without QB Mark Brunell behind center, the Jaguars will run the football close to 40 times on Sunday. RB James Stewart is healthy and may see some snaps, but only to spell Fred Taylor. When watching film of last week's game against the Titans, the thing that sticks out about the Jaguar running game was that Taylor was unable to generate any cutback yardage. Taylor is a slashing back who usually finds a lot of backside creases and misdirection lanes to exploit when teams over pursue.

The Bengals need to find a way to remain as disciplined as the Titans did a week ago. The key on the backside is the play of the defensive ends and outside linebackers, who must not get caught too far upfield or down the line where the play has already passed.

Cincinnati is much improved versus the run with their new "Elephant Package," featuring a "43" look with John Copeland anchoring on the strong side. Copeland is the guy responsible for getting the best push against the opponent's offensive line. With two converted nose tackles, Oliver Gibson and Kimo von Oelhoffen stacking in the middle of the line, the Bengals have done a better job of clogging up the run lanes between the tackles and are now allowing just 105 yards per game on the ground.

The Bengals are allowing teams to pass for an average of 247.3 yards per game on them, and most of the problems have come at the cornerback position where Heath and Hawkins have done a poor job of playing the ball all season long. What this does is eliminate a golden opportunity to stack the line of scrimmage with eight-men in the box to stop the run. The Bengals, however, are going to take some chances with the blitz and will look to incorporate the safeties in the scheme as well.

The key is going to be the pressure the Bengals put on Jay Fiedler, who is starting his first game of the season. Fiedler looked rusty last week, as expected after not seeing significant action since Week 6. The Bengals best chance to slow down the Jaguars offensive attack is to force the inexperienced quarterback to make quick decisions with the ball. Fiedler has a decent arm and good vision as a quarterback, but he has limited experience and a tendency to force throws instead of taking the sack or looking to get rid of the ball out of bounds.

Special teams

	NFL RANK
	Category	CIN	JAC
	Punt return avg.	3	9
	Kickoff return avg.	2	25
	Opp. punt return avg.	27	6
	Opp. kickoff ret. avg.	6	25
	Time of possession	14	7

Doug Pelfrey is 18-of-26, and cannot afford to miss any more field goal attempts if he plans to keep his job for another season. Brad Costello is another special teams player that will be fighting for a job next summer. In his five punts this season, Costello is averaging just 37.7 yards. Tremain Mack, barring anymore off the field troubles, is one special teams player that has secured a job. He is second in the league as a kickoff return specialist, averaging 27.3-yards per return with a touchdown.

Key matchups