Indianapolis offense vs. Buffalo defense

After last weeks' abysmal offensive performance against the Browns, it is clear that the Colts are not a cold-weather team. QB Peyton Manning's throws were erratic, the receiving corps dropped catchable balls and RB Edgerrin James did not seem to run as hard, seemingly to protect the ball from slipping loose.

The Bills are going to look to take advantage of the weather by forcing the Colts to throw the ball early. Expect Buffalo to come out and play their usual active front, but to also walk up SS Henry Jones closer to the line of scrimmage, creating more of a "44" look to stop the run.

The key to the defensive scheme is going to be the matchup between Thomas Smith and Terrence Wilkins. Smith has dominating coverage skills, but last year's knee injury has slowed the corner down some. Wilkins is a speedster, but is not yet polished as a receiver and he has worn down over the course of the season; leading the Bills to believe that Smith can handle the matchup.

The Bills are going to rely heavily on Smith to shut down Wilkins because of the matchup problems they have on the opposite side of the field, where FS Kurt Schultz is going to have to need to keep a real eye on rookie Antoine Winfield help on WR Marvin Harrison. Winfield is an athletic corner that takes a lot of aggressive risks, which can means that he is going to make some plays on Harrison, but he will also get beat over the course of the game and that is when Schultz needs to be available to help in the deep third.

Up front is where this matchup may be won or lost for both teams. When studying film on the Bills, it is impressive how active they are on the line of scrimmage. They run so many variations of twists and stunts that a lot of time they do not even need to blitz on passing downs to get to the quarterback. The most effective and complex look they give is when Bruce Smith and Marcellus Wiley line up on the same side of the line and run a wide stunt to confuse the offensive line's recognition calls.

The Colts are going to have to be extremely patient and alert up front. Indianapolis is perhaps the top pass protection unit in the league, allowing just 14 sacks on the season, but they have not seen a scheme this complex all season long, and it is going to take at least a few possessions for the offensive line to get comfortable with their assignment calls.

Buffalo offense vs. Indianapolis defense

Thomas has been a spark for this offensive unit since returning from injury, and even when RB Antowain Smith is available, the coaching staff will still rely on Thomas to carry some of the load. With a three-man rotation at the position, the Bills are guaranteed fresh legs and a diversified attack throughout the game. This could present a problem to an Indianapolis defense that has given up 151 and 141 yards in the past two weeks to Washington and Cleveland respectively.

This Sunday's game will be a good challenge for the Colts as they head into the post season. In the first meeting between these two teams, Buffalo ran for just 47 yards on 15 carries, but the Colts seemed to have caught the Bills by surprise with a lot of zone-blitz schemes that Buffalo had not seen on film. This time around, the Bills know what to expect from Indianapolis, and should be better prepared when the Colts throw a wrinkle at them.

Buffalo's biggest concern on offense has to be in short yardage, where their play calling has been less than imaginative and the surge from the offensive line has been close to obsolete. And just when the Bills thought they had their offensive line completely intact with the return of Robert Hicks at right tackle, OC Jerry Ostroski suffered a sprained MCL in his right knee and is not likely to play. This means that Dusty Zeigler, who started at center the last two years, will move back to his old position and Jamie Nails will play right guard. This is definitely a hit to the unit, especially on the interior where the team can ill-afford any communication breakdowns or blown assignments.

Special teams

	NFL RANK
	Category	IND	BUF
	Punt return avg.	15	10
	Kickoff return avg.	16	21
	Opp. punt return avg.	31	17
	Opp. kickoff ret. avg.	20	21
	Time of possession	11	1

On a team that is so successful and stacked with talent, Mike Vanderjagt has been overlooked. Vanderjagt is second in the league as the teams' field goal kicker, nailing 32-of-36 attempts, including the game winner against Cleveland last Sunday. Hunter Smith continues to improve as the season progresses. Smith is now averaging 42.7 yards per punt, but has only landed 14 of his 54 punts inside the opponent's twenty-yard line.

Key matchups