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Thursday, December 30 War Room: Dolphins at Redskins The War Room Miami offense vs. Washington defense
The microscope is obviously on veteran QB Dan Marino, especially after his three-interception performance on Monday night against the Jets, two of which were returned for touchdowns. When breaking down the game, it becomes obvious that Marino is still a solid quarterback in this league, but his decision-making skills have deteriorated simply because he still thinks he can make the throws. Marino is trying to force balls into coverage that maybe three-or-four years ago he had the arm to complete. The case is similar to a power pitcher in Major League Baseball that has lost some of the velocity on his fastball. Marino needs to adjust to his arm strength and learn how to throw the "changeup" instead of trying to zip the ball into his receivers. The Dolphins are now healthy at the receiver position, and Marino has a lot of prominent targets to work with in the passing game. The Redskins are obviously going to work to get pressure on Marino, as teams have done since his return from injury. When Marino is under pressure, he often throws off his back foot and a lot of his balls are sailing. Washington ranks right around the league average with 37 sacks, but have received a big boost from DT Dan Wilkinson in the pass rush. Wilkinson does not play on a lot of nickel packages, but he leads the team in sacks and hurries. RG Kevin Gogan needs to be able to handle the bull rush of Wilkinson, anchoring in on passing downs to neutralize the power and leverage that Wilkinson uses to come off the ball. Perhaps the biggest key in this game will be the Dolphins ability to run the ball against Washington's undersized linebacking corps. The Redskins are allowing 123.6 yards per game on the ground, but in the last three weeks, the unit has done a better job of defending the run. LB's Shawn Barber, Derek Smith and Greg Jones are an undersized linebacking corps who have had trouble against the run all season, allowing 123.6 yards per game on the ground. The unit has done a better job recently against the run because they have been more active and are shedding blocks better at the line of scrimmage. Their production against the run needs to continue to improve this Sunday if the Redskins are going to be able to shut down Dolphin offense. Dolphin RB J.J. Johnson gave the team a scare after he came up hobbling in the first quarter of Monday night's game, but he is healthy and will need to carry the load for Miami on the ground. Johnson finished the game with 86 yards rushing, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. He is the type of back that should have great success against the Redskins because of his bruising running style. If Johnson can wear down the Redskins and the Dolphins are able to stick with the running game for all four quarters, Miami will be in excellent position to win the game in the fourth quarter.
Washington offense vs. Miami defense
The Dolphins, because of the declining play of their cornerbacks, are forced to play a less aggressive scheme against the run in order to protect against the play-action pass. With Davis playing only sparingly, the Redskins will look to RB Skip Hicks to carry the load in the running game. Hicks, who only ran the ball 13 times for 48 yards, is an easily-brought-down slasher, but is a threat in the open field and can create running room on his own.The Dolphins need to be disciplined on defense, a concern for this unit that is often caught out of position and gives up a lot of big plays. However, Miami possesses as much speed as any defense in the league, and should be able to track Hicks down and force the undersized back to work between the tackles. The biggest concern for Washington, now that Davis is not a major factor in the offense, is the passing game, as so much of it is predicated on the success of the run. With Davis out of the lineup, Washington had to take a lot more chances downfield and virtually scrapped the play-action pass from the playbook.There are two aspects of Washington's passing game that strike fear into the Dolphin coaches. First, the Redskins have speed at the wideout positions with Michael Westbrook and Albert Connell, who do an excellent job of slipping coverage and getting downfield. Westbrook will likely be taken out of the game by All-Pro CB Sam Madison, but Connell has also emerged as a vertical receiver for the Redskins, and needs to make some more plays down field against CB's Patrick Surtain and Terrell Buckley, who were exploited last week for two big play touchdowns against the Jets. This is critical because of the speed Miami possesses on the defensive side of the ball. If Connell becomes a presence in the deep third, it forces Miami to be less aggressive at the safety position, and will open up a lot more room underneath for the passing game as well as running lanes for Hicks. Also, the Redskins do an excellent job of getting the ball to their backs out of the backfield, especially Larry Centers and Brian Mitchell. As the Dolphins look to play an aggressive scheme to get pressure on Brad Johnson, look for the Redskins to take advantage of the underneath zone that opens up because of the linebackers who vacate the area on the blitz.
Special teams
Key matchups This is an interesting matchup because it should give us a feel of how much speed Green has lost. Most say that he is still one of the fastest cover corners in the business, but he has shown some signs of losing a step, and Martin is just the guy to exploit that weakness. Martin needs to be productive down field if the Dolphins are going to win this game. The passing game is focused around Martin's ability to stretch the defense, opening room up underneath for O.J. McDuffie to work.
Gogan and Dixon are going to have their hands full in the running game if Stubblefield and Wilkinson continue to play as well as they have in the past five weeks. The Redskins' defensive tackles are finally clogging the middle as they were expected to do for the last two seasons, and it is a direct correlation to the defenses improved play against the run. The Dolphins need to run the ball if they are to win the game, which means that Gogan and Dixon are going to have to improve their level of play inside.
Gardener has been dominating all season long. He is a tough and physical defensive tackle that has done an excellent job of occupying attention inside while creating a strong surge. Sims is back from injury, but he is still not at full strength and is going to have some real trouble with the power and quickness of Gardener off the snap.
Miami will win if...
Washington will win if...
The War Room edge
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