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Thursday, December 30
War Room: Dolphins at Redskins


Miami offense vs. Washington defense
DOLPHINS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 25
Pass 12
Tot. Yds. 21
Scoring 12
Int's allowed 19
Sacks allowed 33
   
REDSKINS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 28
vs. Pass 24
Total yds. allowed 28
# of Ints. 22
# of Sacks 37
Turnover differential +9
The Dolphins find themselves backed up against the wall as they head into Washington to take on the 9-6 Redskins. Miami is doing a lot of positive things on offense that go unnoticed, but turnovers and untimely breakdowns have cost the unit a lot of potential scoring drives.

The microscope is obviously on veteran QB Dan Marino, especially after his three-interception performance on Monday night against the Jets, two of which were returned for touchdowns. When breaking down the game, it becomes obvious that Marino is still a solid quarterback in this league, but his decision-making skills have deteriorated simply because he still thinks he can make the throws.

Marino is trying to force balls into coverage that maybe three-or-four years ago he had the arm to complete. The case is similar to a power pitcher in Major League Baseball that has lost some of the velocity on his fastball. Marino needs to adjust to his arm strength and learn how to throw the "changeup" instead of trying to zip the ball into his receivers.

The Dolphins are now healthy at the receiver position, and Marino has a lot of prominent targets to work with in the passing game. The Redskins are obviously going to work to get pressure on Marino, as teams have done since his return from injury. When Marino is under pressure, he often throws off his back foot and a lot of his balls are sailing.

Washington ranks right around the league average with 37 sacks, but have received a big boost from DT Dan Wilkinson in the pass rush. Wilkinson does not play on a lot of nickel packages, but he leads the team in sacks and hurries. RG Kevin Gogan needs to be able to handle the bull rush of Wilkinson, anchoring in on passing downs to neutralize the power and leverage that Wilkinson uses to come off the ball.

Perhaps the biggest key in this game will be the Dolphins ability to run the ball against Washington's undersized linebacking corps. The Redskins are allowing 123.6 yards per game on the ground, but in the last three weeks, the unit has done a better job of defending the run.

LB's Shawn Barber, Derek Smith and Greg Jones are an undersized linebacking corps who have had trouble against the run all season, allowing 123.6 yards per game on the ground. The unit has done a better job recently against the run because they have been more active and are shedding blocks better at the line of scrimmage. Their production against the run needs to continue to improve this Sunday if the Redskins are going to be able to shut down Dolphin offense.

Dolphin RB J.J. Johnson gave the team a scare after he came up hobbling in the first quarter of Monday night's game, but he is healthy and will need to carry the load for Miami on the ground. Johnson finished the game with 86 yards rushing, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. He is the type of back that should have great success against the Redskins because of his bruising running style.

If Johnson can wear down the Redskins and the Dolphins are able to stick with the running game for all four quarters, Miami will be in excellent position to win the game in the fourth quarter.

Washington offense vs. Miami defense
REDSKINS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 5
Pass 6
Tot. Yds. 2
Scoring 2
Int's allowed 14
Sacks allowed 29
   
DOLPHINS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 9
vs. Pass 4
Total yds. allowed 4
# of Ints. 19
# of Sacks 37
Turnover differential -2
The Redskins are in cruise control after wrapping up the NFC East division title, which means that RB Stephen Davis will only see time if necessary. This is a huge boost for the Miami defense that allowed RB Curtis Martin to rush for 72 yards on 20 carries last Monday night, and could not stop the back when they had to down the stretch..

The Dolphins, because of the declining play of their cornerbacks, are forced to play a less aggressive scheme against the run in order to protect against the play-action pass.

With Davis playing only sparingly, the Redskins will look to RB Skip Hicks to carry the load in the running game. Hicks, who only ran the ball 13 times for 48 yards, is an easily-brought-down slasher, but is a threat in the open field and can create running room on his own.

The Dolphins need to be disciplined on defense, a concern for this unit that is often caught out of position and gives up a lot of big plays. However, Miami possesses as much speed as any defense in the league, and should be able to track Hicks down and force the undersized back to work between the tackles.

The biggest concern for Washington, now that Davis is not a major factor in the offense, is the passing game, as so much of it is predicated on the success of the run. With Davis out of the lineup, Washington had to take a lot more chances downfield and virtually scrapped the play-action pass from the playbook.

There are two aspects of Washington's passing game that strike fear into the Dolphin coaches. First, the Redskins have speed at the wideout positions with Michael Westbrook and Albert Connell, who do an excellent job of slipping coverage and getting downfield.

Westbrook will likely be taken out of the game by All-Pro CB Sam Madison, but Connell has also emerged as a vertical receiver for the Redskins, and needs to make some more plays down field against CB's Patrick Surtain and Terrell Buckley, who were exploited last week for two big play touchdowns against the Jets. This is critical because of the speed Miami possesses on the defensive side of the ball.

If Connell becomes a presence in the deep third, it forces Miami to be less aggressive at the safety position, and will open up a lot more room underneath for the passing game as well as running lanes for Hicks. Also, the Redskins do an excellent job of getting the ball to their backs out of the backfield, especially Larry Centers and Brian Mitchell.

As the Dolphins look to play an aggressive scheme to get pressure on Brad Johnson, look for the Redskins to take advantage of the underneath zone that opens up because of the linebackers who vacate the area on the blitz.

Special teams

NFL RANK
Category MIA WAS
Punt return avg. 7 24
Kickoff return avg. 3 20
Opp. punt return avg. 18 29
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 18 26
Time of possession 9 19
Olindo Mare is still atop the league in field goals made, connecting on 37-of-43 with a long of 54. The Dolphin return game is still one of the best overall units in the league as Nate Jacquet averages 13.5 yards per punt return and Brock Marion averages 24.5 yards per kickoff return. Miami's coverage units could use some improvement. The punt return team is allowing 10.3 yards per return while the kickoff team has allowed 22.2 yards per return.

Brett Conway is struggling some having connected on just 22-of-25 field goal attempts this season with a long of 51. Matt Turk is in the midst of his worst average of his career, averaging just 41.1 yards per punt, but is only allowing 11.8 of those punts to be returned. Washington's coverage units have been suspect all season long as they are averaging 11.4 yards allowed per punt return and 23.0 yards allowed per kickoff return.

Key matchups

  • Miami WR Tony Martin vs. Washington CB Darrell Green
    This is an interesting matchup because it should give us a feel of how much speed Green has lost. Most say that he is still one of the fastest cover corners in the business, but he has shown some signs of losing a step, and Martin is just the guy to exploit that weakness. Martin needs to be productive down field if the Dolphins are going to win this game. The passing game is focused around Martin's ability to stretch the defense, opening room up underneath for O.J. McDuffie to work.

  • Miami's OGs Kevin Gogan and Mark Dixon vs. Washington DTs Dana Stubblefield and Dan Wilkinson
    Gogan and Dixon are going to have their hands full in the running game if Stubblefield and Wilkinson continue to play as well as they have in the past five weeks. The Redskins' defensive tackles are finally clogging the middle as they were expected to do for the last two seasons, and it is a direct correlation to the defenses improved play against the run. The Dolphins need to run the ball if they are to win the game, which means that Gogan and Dixon are going to have to improve their level of play inside.

  • Washington LG Keith Sims vs. Miami DT Daryl Gardener
    Gardener has been dominating all season long. He is a tough and physical defensive tackle that has done an excellent job of occupying attention inside while creating a strong surge. Sims is back from injury, but he is still not at full strength and is going to have some real trouble with the power and quickness of Gardener off the snap.

    Miami will win if...

  • Dan Marino is not put in the position of winning the game. Marino can still go out and throw for over 300 yards, but lets face it, he is not as strong-armed as before his injury and he is not making great decisions with the football. The Dolphins are a run-oriented team that thrives when they dominate the time of possession battle and give the defense a full field to work with. Marino can find a way to win throwing 35-plus times, but the Dolphins have a significantly better chance at victory if they are able to establish a run game and slow down the tempo of the contest.

  • The offense capitalizes in the redzone. Miami has just a 38.6-touchdown percentage in the redzone, and the biggest problems have been the lack of a presence at the receiver position and the inability to run the ball between the tackles. McDuffie is back, but Oronde Gadsden is out, which means that the team still has just one possession receiver and nobody with great size at the position. J.J. Johnson is also healthy and gives the team a power back that can carry the load inside.

  • Its front-four generates consistent pressure on QB Doug Johnson. Johnson, voted to the Pro Bowl because of the tremendous season he had for the Redskins, has still yet to see a consistent pass rush. Because of such a strong running attack, Johnson has had a lot of time to throw in the pocket. Not to take anything away from Johnson, but the Dolphins have a greater chance of shutting down the high-powered Redskin offense if they force Johnson to beat the blitz.

    Washington will win if...

  • The linebacking corps stacks up versus the run. Shawn Barber, Derek Smith and Greg Jones are an undersized linebacking corps that has had trouble against the run all season, allowing 123.6-yards per game on the ground. Miami is going to look to establish the run early on in this contest for a variety of different reasons, which means the onus is going to be on the Redskin linebacking corps to do a better job inside the box versus the run. The unit has done a better job recently against the run because they have been more active and are shedding blocks better at the line of scrimmage. Their production against the run needs to continue to improve this Sunday if the Redskins are going to be able to shut down Dolphin offense.

  • WR Albert Connell stretches the Dolphin secondary vertically. Connell has emerged as a vertical receiver for the Redskins, and needs to make some more plays down field against the dolphins. This is critical because of the speed Miami possesses on the defensive side of the ball. If Connell becomes a presence in the deep third, it forces Miami to be less aggressive at the safety position, and will open up a lot more room underneath for the passing game as well as running lanes for Skip Hicks and Stephen Davis.

  • The front-seven disrupts the timing of the Dolphin passing game. Dan Marino still has a quick release and does not get sacked a whole lot, but consistent pass rushes have forced the veteran to throw off his back foot and make a lot of coverage read mistakes. The key to shutting down Miami's passing attack is to get pressure on Marino. The Redskins have a speedy linebacking corps, and will need to use a heavy blitz scheme on passing downs in order to upset the timing of the Dolphin passing game.

    The War Room edge

    After clinching the NFC East, the Redskins are primed for a letdown against a Miami team that finds itself in a must-win situation to clinch a Wild Card birth. The Dolphins are going to look to exploit the undersized linebacking corps of the Redskins by running the football over 35 times. Washington will put points on the board even if RB Stephen Davis plays only sparingly, but it will not be enough after a slow start. The Dolphins are going to play more aggressive than in weeks' past on defense, which will throw off the timing of the Redskin passing game. Miami will take matters into their own hands by winning the season finale on the road, and will do so by slowing down the tempo of the game and winning in a low-scoring battle against one of the more prolific offensive attacks.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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