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Thursday, December 30
War Room: Saints at Panthers


New Orleans offense vs. Carolina defense
SAINTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 19
Pass 20
Tot. Yds. 19
Scoring 28
Int's allowed 26
Sacks allowed 38
   
PANTHERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 25
vs. Pass 21
Total yds. allowed 26
# of Ints. 11
# of Sacks 32
Turnover differential -8
The emergence of QB Jake Delhomme provided New Orleans offense with a much-needed spark this week in the team's upset win over Dallas. Delhomme was 16-27 for 278 yards and two touchdowns against the 'Boys, and provided the mobile pocket presence that the Saints have sorely lacked this season.

RB Ricky Williams returned, albeit at less than 100%, from a turf toe injury that has sidelined him for the last four weeks to carry the ball 23 times for 63 yards.

This week against the Panthers, expect New Orleans offensive coordinator Danny Abramowicz to try and establish the passing game early, as Carolina is likely to blitz a lot and put eight men on the line of scrimmage on almost every play.

If Delhomme is effective early, this should open up the running game for Williams against a defense that last week surrendered 206 rushing yards. If Delhomme is under pressure, he will not hesitate to run as he showed against the Cowboys, but will also look to make quick hits to his hot reads, WRs Keith Poole and Eddie Kennison, both of whom are capable of picking up big yardage after the catch.

New Orleans has a huge offensive line, so look for them to try to dominate the point of attack against an undersized Carolina defensive line and a Panther linebacking corps that has trouble wrapping the ball carrier.

After a month of solid defensive play, Carolina's defense hit a stumbling block against the Steelers. Pittsburgh RB Jerome Bettis had a huge day, and the Steelers as a team racked up over 200 yards on the ground. Carolina's defensive line was pushed around at the point of attack, and was unable, even with the help of eight and nine man fronts, to slow down "the Bus."

This week, Carolina will again face a team that can run the football behind a big offensive line, so expect defensive coordinator John Marshall to challenge the Saints to throw the football early. This will leave LDC Eric Davis and RDC Doug Evans in single coverage against New Orleans' receivers on the outside. Both are solid man-to-man cover guys, but could struggle, particularly against Kennison, who can stretch a defense. This means that Carolina's front seven must get to Delhomme and rattle the youngster, who has yet to see any complex blitz schemes. The zone blitz looks that the Panthers are likely to throw at Delhomme should confuse him and cause him to hurry his throws. His mobility also creates a problem for Carolina, as the Cowboys found out last week when Delhomme used his athletic ability to keep plays alive long enough to find his receivers after coverage broke down.

Carolina offense vs. New Orleans defense

PANTHERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 20
Pass 3
Tot. Yds. 5
Scoring 4
Int's allowed 15
Sacks allowed 46
   
SAINTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 21
vs. Pass 19
Total yds. allowed 20
# of Ints. 19
# of Sacks 39
Turnover differential -2
The fact that RB Tim Biakabutuka is unable to stay healthy has caused immeasurable damage to the Panther offense this season. Biakabutuka brings breakaway speed and a big-play ability that alters opposing defenses' game plans, but he has not played a full season in the NFL.

It appears as though Biakabutuka will be unable to go again this weekend against New Orleans, so it will be backup RB Fred Lane's job to carry the football. Last weekend Lane was having a decent game against the Steelers until his goal-line fumble was returned 102 yards for a touchdown.

QB Steve Beuerlein will look to capitalize on a New Orleans secondary that has been susceptible to the big play, particularly RDC Fred Weary. When WR Muhsin Muhammad is matched up with Weary, expect Muhammad to run routes where he can use his size to go up and take the ball away from the smaller, less athletic cornerback. WR Patrick Jeffers is becoming a nice compliment to Muhammad on the other side of the field, and will also be looked to when he is covered by Weary.

The challenge for the Panthers in this contest will be to control the New Orleans front four, which is undoubtedly the strength of the defense. Carolina's offensive line has to prevent the Saints from getting penetration at the point of attack so that Lane can get outside where he can use his quickness to make people miss.

Statistically, the New Orleans defense didn't have a great day against the Cowboys last week, but the unit did enough to keep the team in the game, and came up huge when the game was on the line.

RDC Fred Weary, who has been a target of opposing QB's for much of the year, had a huge day. Weary scored the game-winning touchdown when he recovered a Dallas fumble and returned it 58 yards. Weary also had 10 tackles and an interception. Weary's job will not get any easier this week, as he faces a Carolina offense that is one of the more explosive units in the league.

Defenses that have been able to slow down the Panthers this season have done so by getting to QB Steve Beuerlein. Beuerlein is not nearly as effective throwing on the run as he is when he has time to set up in the pocket, so expect the Saints to use blitzes up the middle of the field to flush Beuerlein out of the pocket.

The New Orleans front four has had a solid year, and is capable of pressuring Beuerlein without any help from a blitzing secondary. When the Saints do blitz, they will probably bring linebackers or one safety, leaving the other to roll to Fred Weary's side of the field. LDC Ashley Ambrose is a solid cover guy who is capable of playing on an island.

Special teams

NFL RANK
Category NO CAR
Punt return avg. 28 29
Kickoff return avg. 15 14
Opp. punt return avg. 3 1
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 29 7
Time of possession 13 21
The Saints are coming off a game where they surrendered over 200 return yards to one player, and that doesn't even include a 97-yard return for a touchdown that was called back due to holding. Carolina KR Michael Bates is a Pro Bowler who is capable of breaking one at any time, so the Saints need to improve their coverage packages in time for Bates. Carolina P Ken Walter has been one of the most consistent punters in the league this season, particularly when it comes to pinning opponents inside their 20-yard lines. Walter has had only one punt roll into the end zone for a touchback all season.

Key matchups

  • New Orleans DC Fred Weary vs. Carolina WR Mushin Muhammad
    This will be one of the week's most enticing matchups, because Weary is coming off such a big game. Panther QB Steve Beuerlein has a tendency to throw to Muhammad in the red zone, so these two will be in on some big plays. Weary is a crafty corner who makes up in smarts for what he lacks athletically, anticipate weary to bait Muhammad and Beuerlein into some crucial mistakes.

  • Panther RDT Sean Gilbert vs. Saints OLG Mike Halapin
    Gilbert will look to keep Halapin off balance in order to stop the run, because if Campbell can get into Gilbert's body he'll be able move him off the ball. Halapin should be able to create running lanes against Gilbert, but he'll need help from the New Orleans blocking backs when in pass pro.

  • New Orleans QB Jake Delhomme vs. Carolina secondary
    The Panthers secondary only has one game to go to in their preparation for the Saints rookie QB. However, expect the Panthers to be constantly changing coverage throughout the game, preventing Delhomme from becoming comfortable with a particular look and keeping him confused.

    New Orleans will win if...

  • They can pressure Beuerlein. The Carolina OL is an improved unit but still struggles with their blitz pickup. The Saints will have to come with a heavy blitz package that won't allow Beuerlein to sit back in the pocket and pick apart their secondary.

  • Their safeties are not taken advantage of by Beuerlein. Sammy Knight and Willie Clay are good safeties, but they struggle covering the pass, because they both lack speed. Where most NFL safeties can make up for a lost step, Clay and Knight cannot, so if the Panthers use a lot of play-fakes or throw to TE Walls often the Saints defense could be in trouble.

  • Their WR's can stretch the Panther secondary. Cam Cleeland is one of the best TE's in the league, but can't do a whole lot in traffic. The Saints WR's Keith Poole and Eddie Kennison will need to take the Carolina secondary into the deep third of the field and open up some space for Cleeland to operate.

    Carolina will win if...

  • They can balance their offensive attack. The Panthers are not balanced on offense and haven't been since losing Biakabutuka, and they're an easy to gameplan for as a result. If Biakabutuka returns, or Lane can generate yards on the ground they'll catch the Saints off guard and be able to have success throwing and running.

  • Beuerlein has time to scan the entire field. Beuerlein's biggest asset is his ability to see the whole field and locate the open man. If he's given time to throw against New Orleans he'll find the breakdown in their secondary and take advantage.

  • The Saints are unable to move the ball on the ground. Delhomme is an inexperienced QB and cannot shoulder the entire offensive load by himself, if Carolina can keep the saints from becoming established on the ground they'll force Delhomme to try and so more than he's capable of.

    The War Room edge
    New Orleans will need production from their running game and won't get it, because with Delhomme under center the Panthers will crowd the box and force the young QB to win the game on his own. When Delhomme begins to take chances the ball-hawking Panther secondary will be waiting. Those takeaways will lead to points and a Carolina win.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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