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Thursday, December 30 War Room: Raiders at Chiefs The War Room Oakland offense vs. Kansas City defense
If the starters can't go, look for ROG Barry Sims to open on the left side, with Gennaro DiNapoli re-entering the starting lineup at his old right guard spot. Veteran Darryl Ashmore will likely start at right tackle. The shuffled offensive line will require great assistance from banged up FB Jon Ritchie and TE's Rickey Dudley and Jeremy Brigham. Head coach Jon Gruden knows that whichever team runs the ball more effectively will likely win this high-stakes contest, so look for the Raiders to use more two-tight end sets to help Kaufman get wide, even if that means giving up some big-play potential in the passing game. Gruden will stick to the ground more than he did in the first contest, in which the Raiders piled up 108 yards on 25 carries (4.3 avg.) before foolishly reverting to the pass late in the game. The Chiefs, who did a nice job containing the running backs in Week 12, must concentrate on staying in their lanes to minimize QB Rich Gannon's role on the ground. Gannon did an excellent job of improvising when the things broke down the last time out against Kansas City, burning them for 30 yards on just four carries. The Chiefs' front four, led by the play of DT Chester McGlockton, dominated last week against the Seahawks, holding Ricky Watters & Co. to just 60 yards on 28 carries. The one player that the Chiefs can't allow to hurt them is TE Rickey Dudley. The Raiders went to Dudley four times at the Coliseum and he averaged almost 16 yards per catch. His presence in the red zone killed Kansas City, which means that OLB's Derrick Thomas and Donnie Edwards need to do a better job of forcing the Raiders to beat them on the perimeter.With DC James Hasty posting consistent shut-down efforts on a weekly basis, he should be able to contain Pro Bowl WR Tim Brown by himself, leaving struggling DC Chris Dishman to defend marginal starting WR James Jett. If the Chiefs make Jett beat them, it could be a long day for the Raiders' offense.
Kansas City offense vs. Oakland defense
Because Gonzalez has become such an integral part of the Chiefs' passing game, FS Charles Mincy will help strongside linebacker Richard Harvey on the big tight end. When Oakland begins doubling Gonzalez early, look for Kansas City to continue using double-tight end formations with Lonnie Johnson. If Gonzalez is taken out of his game, Johnson will play a key role between the hashes because his presence will open up sideline routes for WR's Joe Horn, Kevin Lockett, and Andre Rison. Oakland's defense did an excellent job of pressuring QB Elvis Grbac (5 sacks) in the first meeting, but he was able to connect on enough play-action passes to prevent the Raiders from loading up against the run. The majority of the pressure came on outside blitzes with their outside linebackers and safeties. In last week's loss at the Kingdome, Seattle also had success with the wide blitz, especially on the right side against ROT Victor Riley. LDE James Harris doesn't pose much of a threat on passing downs so look for the majority of blitzes to come off the right edge. Last Sunday, Seattle's pressure forced Grbac to revert back to some bad habits. Instead of taking sacks, the normally careful quarterback tested the Seahawks' tight coverage and subsequently threw three costly interceptions. If Grbac continues to spray the ball this week, Oakland's athletic corners will make him pay, as DC Charles Woodson did at the Coliseum with a 15-yard interception return for a score. One positive for the Chiefs that might shore up some of the protection problems will be the return of LOG Dave Szott, who missed last week with the flu. Kansas City is averaging 126.2 yards per game on the ground this season but they were held to just 72 in last week's loss. The Chiefs started slow last week and never were able to get on track. As was the case in the passing game, poor play from the offensive line was the limiting factor on the ground. Numerous 5-yard penalties put the Chiefs in difficult down-and-distance situations and they can't afford another sloppy effort against a run defense that is giving up 91.3 rushing yards per contest.The Raiders had trouble with shifty RB Mike Cloud in the first meeting but they must prepare for an entirely different style of runner this Sunday. RB Bam Morris had a big first half last week against Seattle (6 att., 33 yds.) but the Chiefs had to abandon their run game after halftime because of the huge deficit they had to overcome. The key this week will be keeping the game close so that head coach Gunther Cunningham can stick to his ball-control attack and not have to rely on Grbac to pull out the win.
Special teams
Key matchups The Chiefs will need to use Pro Bowler James Hasty's speed to cover deep threat James Jett. Dishman has fought through an inconsistent season and needs to come up with one his better efforts to contain the Raiders' first option.
Kansas City's defensive tackle duo was strong in the first game between these rivals and Robbins will need to pick his play up a notch in the rematch. Oakland needs to pound the ball inside with Wheatley and that will be tough to do if Robbins doesn't play physically against Barndt and McGlockton.
The Raiders got a huge 15-tackle effort from Biekert when these teams met in Oakland but too many of those tackles were made downfield. Richardson likely won't see many carries but his lead blocking will be vital to Kansas City's success on the ground.
Oakland will win if...
Kansas City will win if...
The War Room edge
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