COMMUNITY
 Letters to Editor
Send a letter
BACKSTAGE
 The Magazine
ESPN Radio


 ESPN.com
NFL

COLLEGE FB

NBA

NHL

M COLLEGE BB

W COLLEGE BB

GOLF ONLINE

BASEBALL

SOCCER

EXTREME SPORTS


Thursday, December 30
War Room: Raiders at Chiefs


Oakland offense vs. Kansas City defense
RAIDERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 1
Pass 10
Tot. Yds. 6
Scoring 8
Int's allowed 12
Sacks allowed 45
   
CHIEFS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 13
vs. Pass 16
Total yds. allowed 13
# of Ints. 23
# of Sacks 36
Turnover differential +20
The biggest obstacle the Raiders must overcome this week, and it could an insurmountable one, is running the football without starting OT's Mo Collins and Lincoln Kennedy, both of whom sustained injuries last week against San Diego. Oakland's bookend tackles have been the key to RB Napoleon Kaufman's outside running game.

If the starters can't go, look for ROG Barry Sims to open on the left side, with Gennaro DiNapoli re-entering the starting lineup at his old right guard spot. Veteran Darryl Ashmore will likely start at right tackle. The shuffled offensive line will require great assistance from banged up FB Jon Ritchie and TE's Rickey Dudley and Jeremy Brigham.

Head coach Jon Gruden knows that whichever team runs the ball more effectively will likely win this high-stakes contest, so look for the Raiders to use more two-tight end sets to help Kaufman get wide, even if that means giving up some big-play potential in the passing game. Gruden will stick to the ground more than he did in the first contest, in which the Raiders piled up 108 yards on 25 carries (4.3 avg.) before foolishly reverting to the pass late in the game.

The Chiefs, who did a nice job containing the running backs in Week 12, must concentrate on staying in their lanes to minimize QB Rich Gannon's role on the ground. Gannon did an excellent job of improvising when the things broke down the last time out against Kansas City, burning them for 30 yards on just four carries. The Chiefs' front four, led by the play of DT Chester McGlockton, dominated last week against the Seahawks, holding Ricky Watters & Co. to just 60 yards on 28 carries.

The one player that the Chiefs can't allow to hurt them is TE Rickey Dudley. The Raiders went to Dudley four times at the Coliseum and he averaged almost 16 yards per catch. His presence in the red zone killed Kansas City, which means that OLB's Derrick Thomas and Donnie Edwards need to do a better job of forcing the Raiders to beat them on the perimeter.

With DC James Hasty posting consistent shut-down efforts on a weekly basis, he should be able to contain Pro Bowl WR Tim Brown by himself, leaving struggling DC Chris Dishman to defend marginal starting WR James Jett. If the Chiefs make Jett beat them, it could be a long day for the Raiders' offense.

Kansas City offense vs. Oakland defense

CHIEFS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 8
Pass 22
Tot. Yds. 16
Scoring 7
Int's allowed 15
Sacks allowed 25
   
RAIDERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 8
vs. Pass 15
Total yds. allowed 10
# of Ints. 20
# of Sacks 43
Turnover differential +5
In their Week 12 showdown, the Raiders took a 14-point lead into the fourth quarter and handed the game away on a pair of big plays. While the defense wasn't responsible for Chris Dishman's 40-yard fumble return, it was defensive coordinator Willie Shaw's unit that allowed TE Tony Gonzalez to break free for a 73-yard touchdown in the opening minutes of the final stanza.

Because Gonzalez has become such an integral part of the Chiefs' passing game, FS Charles Mincy will help strongside linebacker Richard Harvey on the big tight end. When Oakland begins doubling Gonzalez early, look for Kansas City to continue using double-tight end formations with Lonnie Johnson. If Gonzalez is taken out of his game, Johnson will play a key role between the hashes because his presence will open up sideline routes for WR's Joe Horn, Kevin Lockett, and Andre Rison.

Oakland's defense did an excellent job of pressuring QB Elvis Grbac (5 sacks) in the first meeting, but he was able to connect on enough play-action passes to prevent the Raiders from loading up against the run. The majority of the pressure came on outside blitzes with their outside linebackers and safeties. In last week's loss at the Kingdome, Seattle also had success with the wide blitz, especially on the right side against ROT Victor Riley. LDE James Harris doesn't pose much of a threat on passing downs so look for the majority of blitzes to come off the right edge.

Last Sunday, Seattle's pressure forced Grbac to revert back to some bad habits. Instead of taking sacks, the normally careful quarterback tested the Seahawks' tight coverage and subsequently threw three costly interceptions. If Grbac continues to spray the ball this week, Oakland's athletic corners will make him pay, as DC Charles Woodson did at the Coliseum with a 15-yard interception return for a score.

One positive for the Chiefs that might shore up some of the protection problems will be the return of LOG Dave Szott, who missed last week with the flu.

Kansas City is averaging 126.2 yards per game on the ground this season but they were held to just 72 in last week's loss. The Chiefs started slow last week and never were able to get on track. As was the case in the passing game, poor play from the offensive line was the limiting factor on the ground. Numerous 5-yard penalties put the Chiefs in difficult down-and-distance situations and they can't afford another sloppy effort against a run defense that is giving up 91.3 rushing yards per contest.

The Raiders had trouble with shifty RB Mike Cloud in the first meeting but they must prepare for an entirely different style of runner this Sunday. RB Bam Morris had a big first half last week against Seattle (6 att., 33 yds.) but the Chiefs had to abandon their run game after halftime because of the huge deficit they had to overcome.

The key this week will be keeping the game close so that head coach Gunther Cunningham can stick to his ball-control attack and not have to rely on Grbac to pull out the win.

Special teams

NFL RANK
Category OAK KC
Punt return avg. 16 5
Kickoff return avg. 30 24
Opp. punt return avg. 26 13
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 17 8
Time of possession 2 15
Oakland's nightmare kicking game cost them again last week, as PK Joe Nedney missed a makeable kick that would have forced overtime. P Leo Araguz was awful as well, averaging just over 40 yards on four attempts. Kansas City RS Tamarick Vanover is having his finest season on punt returns and will make the Raiders pay if Araguz drills more line drives. Conversely, the Chiefs must be concerned with KOR Napoleon Kaufman, who scorched them for a near-touchdown on 48-yard runback in Week 12. If this one goes down to the wire, Kansas City PK Pete Stoyanovich will make the difference for the Chiefs. His ability to kick in the cold weather has become a strong suit over the past few years.

Key matchups

  • Oakland WR Tim Brown vs. Kansas City DC Cris Dishman
    The Chiefs will need to use Pro Bowler James Hasty's speed to cover deep threat James Jett. Dishman has fought through an inconsistent season and needs to come up with one his better efforts to contain the Raiders' first option.

  • Oakland OC Barrett Robbins vs. Kansas City DTs Barndt and McGlockton
    Kansas City's defensive tackle duo was strong in the first game between these rivals and Robbins will need to pick his play up a notch in the rematch. Oakland needs to pound the ball inside with Wheatley and that will be tough to do if Robbins doesn't play physically against Barndt and McGlockton.

  • Kansas City FB Tony Richardson vs. Oakland MLB Greg Biekert
    The Raiders got a huge 15-tackle effort from Biekert when these teams met in Oakland but too many of those tackles were made downfield. Richardson likely won't see many carries but his lead blocking will be vital to Kansas City's success on the ground.

    Oakland will win if...

  • They can take the crowd out of the game early. Arrowhead is never an easy place to play but Chiefs fans are especially difficult on the Raiders. Oakland must be careful not to commit any early turnovers or permit any big plays early that will excite the Kansas City faithful.

  • The defense plays physically. The Chiefs' offensive game plan is predicated on playing smash-mouth football and the Raiders must match them with muscle at the line of scrimmage. Kansas City will look to pound the ball behind its interior line, which will put pressure on DT Russell and MLB Biekert to make plays.

  • The safeties don't bite on play-action. If the Chiefs have success on the ground early, WR Alexander and TE Gonzalez will see plenty of action down the middle of the field on play-action. QB Grbac beat the Raiders with some sound ball fakes in the first meeting.

    Kansas City will win if...

  • The offensive line protects QB Grbac. The Raiders got consistent pressure on Grbac in the first meeting, sacking him five times and registering many more knockdowns. Although he's one of the most accurate passers in the league if given time in the pocket, Grbac will make costly mistakes with people in his face.

  • They get their wide receivers involved in the passing game. The emergence of TE Tony Gonzalez over the past month has given the Chiefs a new dimension in their passing game, although Grbac has tended to ignore outside receivers. If he doesn't incorporate WR's Alexander, Lockett, and Rison, it will allow Oakland's talented corners to pinch the middle and take away the tight end and running backs.

  • Their defense forces field goals in the red zone. The Raiders have developed into one of the most efficient red zone teams in the league, mostly because of their ability to run the football inside with Wheatley. The Chiefs didn't have an answer for TE Dudley in the prior meeting at the Coliseum. Dudley burned the Chiefs for two touchdowns; OLB Edwards will draw the assignment on Sunday.

    The War Room edge

    The Chiefs are fighting for the division title and Oakland is simply playing for pride in a fierce rivalry game. Both teams are coming off tough road losses, so look for the Chiefs to feed off the home crowd early. The Raiders are a tough team to figure out but one consistent all season -- aside from poor place-kicking -- has been their ability to compete on a weekly basis. Look for Jon Gruden's team to keep it close, although a couple of big plays through the air will ultimately be the difference for the Chiefs.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


  •   ESPN INSIDER
    Copyright 1995-99 ESPN/Starwave Partners d/b/a ESPN Internet Ventures. All rights reserved. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form. ESPN.com Privacy Policy. Use of this site signifies your agreement to the Terms of Service.