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Thursday, December 30
War Room: Chargers at Broncos


San Diego offense vs. Denver defense

CHARGERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 31
Pass 14
Tot. Yds. 27
Scoring 25
Int's allowed 22
Sacks allowed 45
   
BRONCOS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 14
vs. Pass 8
Total yds. allowed 6
# of Ints. 13
# of Sacks 45
Turnover differential -7
The Chargers offense and QB Jim Harbaugh rode their no-huddle offense to what was a near playoff birth. As a result of the offensive nuance, Harbaugh has the Charger passing assault ranked 14th in the NFL coming into week 17, averaging 230 yards a game.

Denver's pass defense, with CB's Ray Crockett and Dale Carter, has come on strong in the past eight games, and is now ranked 8th, yielding just 207 yards a contest. This week, the success of the Broncos will not hinge solely on the play of Carter and Crockett, but SS Darrius Johnson as well. Johnson will be called upon to shut down Charger TE Freddie Jones, who has registered a team high 59 catches.

Harbaugh works his entire no-huddle offense around the tight end position, so Johnson will have to make plays on the football early to slow Jones' production. Jones has been catching so many passes in the games early stages that he's attracted the attention of opposing CBs, who then sag off of big play WR's Jeff Graham and Michael Ricks. Harbaugh will try to do the same against the Broncos on Sunday.

The Chargers offensive line has been sporadic in their protection of Harbaugh (Ironically, the Chargers seem to be at their best throwing the football when protection breaks down). Harbaugh is an improvisational quarterback, and WR's Jeff Graham and Michael Ricks ability to adjust their routes, coupled with the Chargers liberating no-huddle offense, are three big reasons for the Chargers success within the no-huddle system.

Expect the Denver secondary and LB's to rely on their coverage prowess to stop the Chargers, not a hefty blitz package. And when they are in coverage look for them to focus on the neutralization of TE Freddie Jones.

On the ground, the Chargers running game has fizzled -- a trend that won't change on Sunday. RB Natrone Means has all but vanished form the San Diego running attack and RB Jermane Fazende isn't getting it done on the ground either. Denver LB's Bill Romanowski and Glen Cadrez will be able to aid in the stoppage of the Charger passing attack because DT Trevor Pryce and the Bronco front won't need any help against the likes of struggling San Diego OG Aaron Taylor. The Chargers haven't been winning games by running the football. However, the deceiving part about the Charger running game is that it's surfaced when it has had to, when San Diego needs to run clock at game's end with the lead.

Denver offense vs. San Diego defense
BRONCOS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 11
Pass 13
Tot. Yds. 11
Scoring 14
Int's allowed 18
Sacks allowed 30
   
CHARGERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 3
vs. Pass 23
Total yds. allowed 14
# of Ints. 15
# of Sacks 37
Turnover differential -5
Both of these teams are coming off big wins, however, they enter this game with nothing but pride lying in the balance. What makes this particular matchup enticing is that the Charger defense just shut down a red hot Raider running game, while the Broncos are fresh from an upset of the playoff-bound Lions that saw Olandis Gary rush for 185 yards on 29 carries.

The Chargers' defensive success should only increase with the return of run stopping SS Rodney Harrison, which will help revive San Diego's aching secondary. The Broncos Olandis Gary has flourished behind his offensive line, especially OC Tom Nalen, just awarded for his play in '99 by being voted to his third Pro Bowl.

Against the Chargers, Nalen and the Denver front will be faced with warding off the penetration of DT's Norman Hand and John Parrella. Hand and Parrella are two big reasons why the San Diego defense is ranked 3rd overall in the NFL, giving up just 85 yards a game on the ground.

The Broncos like to run Gary in the power alleys, between the tackles, so Denver OG's Schlereth and Neil will have to communicate with center Nalen to neutralize Parrella and Hand. If they don't Gary will be bounced outside to either SS Harrison or WLB Seau, who'll be more then willing to put the wraps on him. If Denver cannot run between the tackles they won't be able to run at all.

The San Diego secondary has been riddled with injuries. Jimmy Spencer's broken arm has him out for the season, and although FS Michael Dumas and CB Darryll Lewis are back from injury, both are still ailing. SS Rodney Harrison's return aids San Diego's run defense, but more importantly he also is in intimidator over the middle in pass coverage.

Denver QB Ryan Griese has been playing efficient lately, but has struggled in the face of the blitz, and the Chargers best defense of the pass is their offensive approach to it. They'll blitz defensive backs and linebackers often to make up for their lacking pass coverage.

The last time these two teams met Chris Miller was at quarterback for Denver in the Broncos November 7th victory. Griese hasn't seen this look yet, so look for rushed decisions leading to force throws. San Diego will also be changing coverage's often and switching personnel within their secondary in an effort to keep Griese confused.

Special teams

NFL RANK
Category SD DEN
Punt return avg. 21 23
Kickoff return avg. 26 12
Opp. punt return avg. 15 30
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 17 25
Time of possession 18 10
The Chargers Carney has been streaky kicking big FGs. Luckily, last week's split the uprights. Bennett is averaging just over 43 yards a punt, but his placement is what makes him good. Kenny Bynum is returning kickoffs for 21 yards a shot and Chris Penn is bringing back punts seven yards on average.

The Raiders kicking scenario is getting worse, last week it was Nedney who missed the big kick and on punts Araguz is averaging just 39 yards a punt. Kaufman and Gordon are both threatening returning kicks.

Key matchups

  • Charger DLE Al Fontenot vs. Denver ORT Matt Lepsis
    Lepsis is reliant on fundamentals whereas Fontenot is more of an athletic player. Expect Lepsis to take control of this battle when the Broncos run the ball, however Fontenot will use his quicks to reach Griese on passing downs.

  • Charger TE Freddie Jones vs. Bronco SS Darius Johnson
    Freddie Jones is having incredible success getting open this year by using his hands to gain separation from his defenders off the snap. The key for Johnson will be to give Jones a cushion off the LOS, preventing the physical TE to take control of him by creating space at the POA.

  • Bronco RB Olandis Gary vs. the Chargers front seven
    If the San Diego defensive line can retard the Bronco running attack without the help of their linebacking unit, it will aid them in shutting down Denver's passing attack. However, if Gary gets started early and produces on the ground, it will force the Chargers to stack eight or nine men in the box; giving Griese time to throw underneath to the Denver receivers. The measures taken by San Diego to stop Gary will dictate Denver's production.

    San Diego will win if...

  • Their secondary can confuse Harbaugh. The no-huddle offense calls for a quick decision-making process by Harbaugh and the only team that really made it difficult for him was the Dolphins two weeks ago. Like the Dolphins, the Broncos need to be able to change coverages on the fly, using good communication. This will force Harbaugh into making bad throws.

  • Gary can run between the tackles. Olandis Gary has been on a tear and the Broncos have been winning as a result. If he's given the slightest bit of daylight between the tackles he'll be able to recognize it and pick up yardage.

  • CB Dale Carter can slow WR Jeff Graham. The talent drop off at WR is significant for the Chargers after Jeff Graham. If Carter can shut him down Harbaugh won't have another comforting option and may try to force balls to TE Jones. If Graham is eliminated by Carter the Chargers will be forced to throw into coverage.

    Denver will win if...

  • They can protect Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh isn't being sacked much, but he's being hurried a bunch. The Chargers need to keep blitzing Bronco LBs from hitting him or he'll continue to hurry throws or may end up wounded.

  • SS Harrison can continue to help out defending the run. Now that Harrison is back in the lineup teams are forced to either run at him or WLB Junior Seau. Olandis Gary likes to run between the tackles and if Harrison can come up and provide help early in stopping the Denver run it will change the face of the Bronco gameplan.

  • The running game is established. Part of the reason Harbaugh has been under such heat is that there has been no run threat. The Chargers must run the ball with success so that they can prevent the Bronco secondary and LB' s from teeing off on their QB.

    The War Room edge

    The Broncos have been running the ball too well lately for the Chargers, who are weak up the middle, to stop them on the ground. Bronco corner backs Dale Carter and Ray Crockett will also keep the San Diego WR's in check. Crockett and Carter are veterans and have seen plenty of no-huddle before.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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