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Thursday, December 30
War Room: Seahawks at N.Y. Jets

The War Room

Seattle offense vs. New York defense

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:
Run 22

Pass 17

Tot. Yds. 22

Scoring 10

Int's allowed 13

Sacks allowed 36

JETS DEFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:

vs. Run 19

vs. Pass 22

Total yds. allowed 25

# of Ints. 23

# of Sacks 25

Turnover differential +13

This is as big as it gets for the Seahawk's franchise, and that is why you can expect to see RB Ricky Watters in the backfield on Sunday. He may not take the majority of the snaps, but he will give the offense at least ten carries to provide some spark. People constantly question Watters' heart and concern for the team, but what many do not realize about Watters is that he is one of the most dedicated professionals in the business and will rise to the occasion as long as he feels the cause is worthy.

Watters does have a sprained right knee, and his change of direction and speed will be limited, which means that RB Ahman Green is going to have to accept the challenge of carrying some of the load on Sunday. Green has only carried the ball 25 times this season and has shown little flash as a runner. The one-two punch of Watters and Green needs to be effective against a Jets defense that is allowing 4.1-yards per rush on the season.

One advantage the Jets have against the Seahawks depleted run game is that they are disciplined on defense. They usually struggle to stop the run because they have a hard time stacking at the line of scrimmage and sometimes the "34" defense is not enough to occupy blockers up front.

With Green's ability in question and Watters hobbled, the Seahawks are not much of a threat to run the ball, which means that they will likely have to throw the ball to win -- not something you want to do in early January at The Meadowlands.

With the game possibly hanging in the balance of the Seahawks passing attack, Jon Kitna is the most important player on the field. His struggles have been well-documented, and even though he looked as if he regained form last week, Kitna is still in the process of maturing into a National Football League starting quarterback.

Kitna got off to an excellent start mostly in part to coach Mike Holmgren's passing scheme and the simplified reads that he had to work with. Holmgren is a master-mind at creating matchups and putting the receivers in great position for the quarterback to get them the ball. However, as teams began to blitz Kitna more and disguise coverage with greater frequency, Kitna began to fall apart. What used to be easy reads were now the wrong reads and so on. Kitna is a talent at the position and he has the type of moxie to shake off the problems that he experienced, but he is still dependent on the system, and this week that system is going to be challenged.

The Jets are last in the league in sacks with 25, but defensive coordinator Bill Belichick is going to make coverage reads as complicated as Kitna has ever had to work against, and the blitz package will be just enough to force Kitna into a few ill-advised throws.

New York Jets offense vs. Seattle defense

	JETS OFFENSE
	Ranking in the NFL:
	Run	12
	Pass	28
	Tot. Yds.	25
	Scoring	18
	Int's allowed	14
	Sacks allowed	36

	SEAHAWKS DEFENSE
	Ranking in the NFL:
	vs. Run	24
	vs. Pass	20
	Total yds. allowed	24
	# of Ints.	28
	# of Sacks	37
	Turnover differential	+3

Ray Lucas' continued success comes as a surprise. His maturity level, poise and athleticism have never been questioned, but his accuracy as a passer has, and he gets more and more on target each week. The Jets are a tough team to face at this stage of the season, because they are playing with extreme confidence, especially in their quarterback.

Remember, this is a team that many predicted to play in the Super Bowl before the season started, and now after running off six of their last seven, it is safe to say that they are one of the toughest teams to beat in the AFC. The Seahawks have their hands full as they look to steal this one on the road for an automatic clinch of the AFC West title.

Seattle unveiled a more aggressive defensive scheme last week, and it was obviously more suited for the unit's personnel. Shawn Springs is one of the top cover corners in the game and can take away a third of the field. His ability to take a receiver out of the game allows this defense some leeway at the safety position. By walking SS Darryl Williams closer to the line of scrimmage, they add a player in the "box" and can do more in the blitz package.

On Sunday, the wide receiver/cornerback matchups are going to be as important as any. Because Keyshawn Johnson draws so much attention, the Seahawks will be forced to play cloud coverage to his side, rolling FS Jay Bellamy over to CB Willie Williams side to create more of a double coverage look. This leaves Shawn Springs in single-man coverage on the opposite side against Wayne Chrebet, which should be an excellent matchup of athleticism and technique.

These matchups are not only critical in the passing game, but will also dictate the Jets' ability to run the football. The Seahawks were so effective against the Chief's receivers last week that they were allowed to get more personnel involved in run support, which translated into allowing just 72 yards on the ground against a Kansas City running attack that averaged almost 190 yards per game in the last previous three weeks.

Special teams

NFL RANK

Category SEA N.Y.

Punt return avg. 1 27

Kickoff return avg. 11 4

Opp. punt return avg. 23 14

Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 5 31

Time of possession 28 17

Todd Peterson has leveled off after a tough, three-miss performance against the Chargers. Peterson has now connected on 31-of-37 field goal attempts with a long of 51-yards. Charlie Rogers is still atop the league with a 15.1-yard per return average as the teams' punt return specialist. Ahman Green has struggled some as the kickoff return man this season, averaging just 22.7-yards per return.

John Hall has battled back from a dismal start and has now connected on 22-of-28 field goal attempts. Tom Tupa ranks third in the league in punting with an average of 45.4 yards per attempt. Dwight Stone has been a pleasant surprise as the kickoff return specialist for the Jets, averaging 25.3 yards per return.

Key matchups

Seattle OC Chris Gray vs. New York NT Jason Ferguson
This matchup could be a problem for the Seahawks in the run game. Gray has the athletic ability to mirror and slide against Ferguson in pass pro, and should be able to get good enough position in the short set to neutralize Ferguson's bull rush, but Gray is not physically strong enough to move Ferguson in the run game. The Seahawks are going to have to use a double team here with one of the offensive guards, which means that the Jets are going to have some open blitzing lanes in the interior of the Seattle offensive line.

Seattle WR Joey Galloway vs. New York CB Aaron Glenn
Glenn, at 5-9, is going to have trouble with the size of Galloway, 6-3. The Seahawks have been working tirelessly to get Galloway more involved in the offense, and this could be just the matchup that they have been looking for. Glenn has great athleticism and should be able to stick with Galloway down the field, but in the redzone and on 9-routes, this matchup definitely favors Galloway.

New York OG Kerry Jenkins vs. Seattle DT Cortez Kennedy
Jenkins has played well for the Jets this season, but he could have some trouble with Kennedy because of his inability to anchor in. Jenkins has great strength and size, but plays without a good base, which will be trouble against Kennedy, who's one-gap burst and power is tough to handle.

Seattle will win if...

DT's Cortez Kennedy and Sam Adams protect MLB Anthony Simmons. Simmons is averaging almost nine tackles per game in the middle in the last six games, and much of his success can be attributed to the fine play of DT's Kennedy and Adams. Kennedy and Adams draw the attention of not only the offensive guards, but the center as well, which means that there is nobody to get out and chip the middle linebacker. The Jets are going to look to establish the run early in the game, but the Seahawks should be able to thwart that effort against an undersized and less physical interior line.

RB Ahman Green picks up the slack in the running game. There has been talk of Green getting his chance for the past two years, and now that Watters is out for the week, he gets a chance to prove he can handle the load. The Seahawks have had a streaky running attack, but fumbles and short-yardage woes have been the life of this unit. Green needs to step up as the premier back in what turns out to be the deciding game of the season. Green has all the skills to handle the duty of full-time running back, but he tends to wear down and has a propensity for fumbleitis.

QB Jon Kitna does a better job reading coverage. Kitna is the glue for this offense. Holmgren's offense revolves around his quarterback making good decisions with the ball and making the throws when the receiver breaks open on timing routes. Kitna has been streaky this season, starting off strong and then tailing off. Needless to say, his play dictates the success of the entire team, and it is critical that he stay poised against what should be a complex defensive scheme drawn up by Jets' defensive coordinator Bill Belichick.

New York Jets will win if...

The front-seven establishes a pass rush on its own. The Jets rank last in the league with just 25 sacks on the season, and need better production from the front seven in this the final game of the season. The Jets are going to have to play conservative with its secondary because of Seattle's explosive receiving corps, which means that the front seven is on its own to create a pass rush.

QB Ray Lucas distributes the ball to his offensive weapons. Lucas has done an excellent job as the caretaker since taking over the starting role, but he needs to do a better job of getting the ball to his receivers. He has taken some chances and has created some big plays, but if the Jets are going to stay in this game, Lucas needs to get the ball to Keyshawn Johnson and Wayne Chrebet down the field.

WR Keyshawn Johnson forces Seattle to roll coverage to his side of the field. Johnson is a presence at the receiver position, but with Lucas at the helm, Seattle may be tempted to play single-man coverage on the receiver with CB Shawn Springs. Springs is fully capable of shutting down Keyshawn, but if Johnson can make a couple big plays early in the game, it changes the Seahawks entire defensive philosophy. The Jets would love for the Seahawks to back off the coverage, giving Chrebet more room to work underneath.

The War Room edge
Seattle knows that a loss takes them out of the playoffs, but they face a dangerous opponent that has rallied around the idea of playing the role of spoiler down the stretch. The Seahawks proved last week against the Chiefs that they still have enough offensive firepower to compete with the top teams in the league, but the task is tougher this week as they take on a stingy Jets' team on the road. Seattle is going to dominate on the defensive side of the ball, which will put the offense in a lot of favorable field position situations. Kitna is going to have to prove that he can make the reads against a complex Jet's defensive scheme, and should be able to do so against the league's worst pass rush. With time to throw in the pocket and an explosive receiving corps, the Seahawks will come out on top in the season finale and win the AFC West.

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