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Thursday, December 30
War Room: Rams at Eagles


St. Louis offense vs. Philadelphia defense
RAMS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 9
Pass 1
Tot. Yds. 1
Scoring 1
Int's allowed 11
Sacks allowed 28
   
EAGLES DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 26
vs. Pass 17
Total yds. allowed 22
# of Ints. 24
# of Sacks 32
Turnover differential +2
With his team having clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs, it will be interesting to see whether Ram coach Dick Vermeil will open up his offense versus a young and aggressive Philadelphia defense. The Eagles have nothing to lose, so expect defensive coordinator Jim Johnson to loosen the reigns and allow his defense to come after whoever is in the game at QB for the Rams.

With a first-round bye in the playoffs, it is likely that Vermeil will play his starters for the first half, and then regardless of the score, allow his reserves to come on and play the remainder of the game -- injuries at this point in the year would devastate a team that has managed to remain healthy through most of the season.

Before QB Curt Warner gives way to backup QB Justin Watson, expect him to look deep downfield early. WR Isaac Bruce has deep speed and will be a favorite target of Warner this week, particularly if he is matched up against Philadelphia RDC Al Harris, playing in place of Bobby Taylor, who is out for the season with a broken jaw. Harris is a solid cover guy, but leads the Eagles with a team-high 14 pass interference penalties. RB Marshall Faulk should see most of the action in the first half, but will most likely be replaced by Robert Holcombe at the start of the second.

Philadelphia will try to end the season on a positive note, but it will be difficult against a Rams' offense that has a compliment of weapons rivaled by no other team in the NFC. In the only other game where the Eagles faced this kind of firepower, they were manhandled by the Colts, who put up 41 points.

Philadelphia has difficulty getting to opposing quarterbacks, especially if the team is rushing only four players. In such situations, a quarterback like St. Louis QB Warner has all day to make his reads. This means Philadelphia will have to blitz, and blitz often; leaving cornerbacks Al Harris and Troy Vincent in single coverage for much of the day. Nickel back Allen Rossum will be on #3 WR Az-Zahir Hakim, probably also in single coverage, so the potential for a big play is there.

When Philadelphia does blitz, they'll need to get to Warner quickly, otherwise he will find RB Marshall Faulk out of the backfield. Faulk is having an MVP-caliber season and is one of the more elusive backs in the NFL, so the Eagle linebackers will have to wrap up Faulk to prevent him from getting a lot of yards after the catch.

FS Brian Dawkins was voted to the Pro Bowl and is the big-play guy in the Eagle secondary. He will spend a great deal of his time on the line of scrimmage, as Philadelphia will rely on him to put pressure on Warner.

Philadelphia offense vs. St. Louis defense
EAGLES OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 13
Pass 31
Tot. Yds. 29
Scoring 29
Int's allowed 16
Sacks allowed 46
   
RAMS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 1
vs. Pass 25
Total yds. allowed 12
# of Ints. 27
# of Sacks 54
Turnover differential -10
Philadelphia's offense is one of the worst in the league, despite the year that RB Duce Staley had. A great deal of the problem revolves around the fact that the team lacks a speed receiver on the outside to stretch the field. Often the Eagles rely on TE Luther Broughton running deep patterns over the middle to open things up for the wide receivers and backs on the underneath patterns.

Against the Rams, look for the Eagles to continue playing a lot of the team's younger receivers as an audition for next season. Two weeks ago against New England, this young unit put 28 points on the board as the Eagles bashed the Patriots, 28-9.

QB Donovan McNabb will return to the lineup after missing the Patriots game with a sprained MCL, and will look for WR's Torrance Small, Na Brown and Dietrich Jells. Small has improved steadily all season, and finally seems to have regained his confidence in catching the football.

Moving the football against the Rams will not be easy, but as it has all year, the Eagles' offense will revolve around Staley. Philadelphia will try to run Staley hard early in the game to establish the run and to set up play action for McNabb so that he has a little more time to throw the football. With his performance last week, backup QB Koy Detmer has shown that he deserves to be the team's #2 QB.

St. Louis' defense has been consistent all season long, and the team's rushing defense is tops in the NFL, which spells trouble for the Eagles and Staley. The unit is anchored by RDE Grant Wistrom and LDE Kevin Carter, both of whom are solid run defenders, and terrors rushing from the end position. Wistrom is undersized at only 268 pounds, but he has great hands and uses leverage to keep opposing blockers away from his body. He will be matched up against mammoth LOT Tra Thomas, and will try to use his quickness to neutralize Thomas' strength. If Wistrom allows Thomas to lock on to him and drive block, Wistrom could be a liability against the run.

LDC Todd Lyght was named to the Pro Bowl last week, and as a reward he will be asked to spend much of the day covering Philadelphia's #1 WR Torrance Small (who would be a #3 on most other teams). The Eagles will spend most of their time throwing to whoever is being covered by RDC Dexter McCleon. McCleon is good on the shorter routes, but has been susceptible to the deep ball all season long. The Rams have a big-play defense that thrives on attacking and creating confusion. Depending on how long the starters stay in the game, it could be a long day for an inexperienced Philadelphia offense.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category STL PHI
Punt return avg. 12 20
Kickoff return avg. 1 7
Opp. punt return avg. 5 11
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 30 22
Time of possession 6 29
St. Louis' special teams units have dominated opponents all season. Kick and punt returners Horne and Hakim have each scored return touchdowns this season, and the Eagles are susceptible to big plays, particularly in kickoff coverage. Philadelphia's Allen Rossum is finally living up to the hype that he generated for himself with his performances in college. Both teams have talent at the special teams positions, so there could be some fireworks in this game.

Key matchups

  • Rams WR Isaac Bruce vs. Eagles DC Troy Vincent
    If the Eagle defense has a strong suit it's at the cornerback position, which will pay dividends against the high-flying Rams offensive attack. WR Issac Bruce is Kurt Warner's favorite target and his deceptive speed is what turns him loose. Vincent is notorious for giving receivers too much room at the LOS, however, against a crafty receiver like Bruce, this will only help in coverage.

  • Eagles RB Duce Staley vs. Rams front four
    The Rams front four will have to stay aggressive, however they'll need to be mindful of their assignments. Staley is a powerful runner, but some of the infidelity of the Eagles OL has helped improve his vision. Staley recognizes cutback lanes now more than ever, so if the Rams are too far upfield on running plays Staley will take advantage.

  • Rams RB Marshall Faulk vs. the Eagles LBs
    Faulk is obviously a threat running the football, but his 72 receptions to date is what makes him so difficult to gameplan against. The Eagle LB's will look to MLB Jeremiah Trotter to keep him in check, deploying him as a "spy", mirroring Faulk's every move on passing downs.

    St. Louis will win if...

  • Their defense is able to produce a turnover. To beat the Rams the Eagles will have to play the perfect game. If St. Louis can cause a turnover, either a fumble or an interception, they'll win.

  • They stay conscious of Detmer's ability to throw. Although Duce Staley is the main component of the Philly offense, Detmer has the ability to put up big numbers. The Rams must be mindful of his ability to throw and keep from putting too many men in the box.

  • Faulk is able to catch for over 100 yards. The Eagles secondary will have enough to worry about with the Rams talented WR corps, however, if Faulk can draw a lot of attention, the Philadelphia defensive backfield will be in serious trouble.

    Philadelphia will win if...

  • Staley can run for 150 yards. For the Eagles to win Staley needs to have a huge day. This will allow Detmer to locate his receivers underneath and behind the St. Louis secondary.

  • Their defense must create multiple turnovers. The Eagles don't have the horses to run with the Rams so they'll need a lot of help. If they can force Warner into some bad throws and cause Faulk to cough up the ball they may have a shot.

  • The Rams are looking ahead to the playoffs and rest key players. If St. Louis prepares for the post season a bit early and sits some of their skill guys and interior studs, it will open the door for an upset. In a game like this, the Rams may sit players with the slightest of injuries.

    The War Room edge
    The Rams will try to get up on the Eagles early by going vertical on their secondary, with hopes of resting most of their starters in the second half. The Eagles will unload a heavy blitz package in the face of Rams QB Kurt Warner, but won't be able to put up nearly enough points on the board to come within three scores of St. Louis.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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