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Thursday, December 30
War Room: Buccaneers at Bears


Tampa Bay offense vs. Chicago defense
BUCCANEERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 17
Pass 30
Tot. Yds. 28
Scoring 26
Int's allowed 16
Sacks allowed 41
   
BEARS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 6
vs. Pass 29
Total yds. allowed 30
# of Ints. 14
# of Sacks 36
Turnover differential -2
For the second straight week, the Bears face a weapon that exposes their greatest weakness -- lack of speed at linebacker. St. Louis' Marshall Faulk had a career-game last Sunday, piling up 258 yards from scrimmage -- 204 of which came in the passing game. Chicago went after the quarterback with a blitz-heavy scheme that sadly didn't produce a single sack. Kurt Warner simply flipped the ball to Faulk, who carved up a depleted Bears' back-seven in the open field.

Tampa will use RB Warrick Dunn in a similar role this Sunday in attempt to take pressure off rookie QB Shaun King. Neither MLB Barry Minter nor rookie OLB Warrick Holdman will be able to stick with Dunn, who the team likes to isolate on crossing routes and short dump-offs underneath.

The Bucs went with maximum protection for the majority of the game last week against Green Bay, holding the Packers without a sack. While this strategy kept defenders off King, it also reduced the number of options he had in the passing game. Tampa should be able to get by with limited protection schemes this week against a Bear pass rush that could feature many of the team's younger players.

Chicago would like to give rookies Russell Davis and Roosevelt Colvin a look on Sunday to gauge their respective progress. If that's the case, Chicago's secondary must play more fundamentally sound than it did a week ago. Rookie DC Jerry Azumah, who might start in place of injured Walt Harris, was the only defensive back that tackled well against the Rams. The rest of the secondary must elevate their games this week if they don't want to end what has been a fairly positive year on a sour note.

Tony Dungy should get plenty of credit for sticking to the run in the second half of last week's victory over Green Bay. The Packers did a nice job of containing the Bucs with eight-man fronts in the first half but RB Mike Alstott's continuous pounding caught up to them in the second half.

Tampa ran the ball extremely well in the first meeting between these division rivals, piling up 124 yards on just 28 attempts (4.4 avg.) but 31 of those came on scrambles by QB Trent Dilfer. King doesn't pose much of a threat with his feet but the key will be Dungy's willingness to commit to the ground game for four quarters.

Chicago offense vs. Tampa Bay defense
BEARS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 26
Pass 2
Tot. Yds. 7
Scoring 23
Int's allowed 21
Sacks allowed 36
   
BUCCANEERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 6
vs. Pass 3
Total yds. allowed 2
# of Ints. 20
# of Sacks 41
Turnover differential -7
Injuries sustained by many of the starters last week, coupled with the fact that the team has no shot at the playoffs, will dictate numerous personnel changes for the Bears on Sunday. QB Cade McNown was sacked four times last week by the Rams and was subsequently knocked out of the game with a strained right side. The team would like to get one last look at McNown before the off-season.

If McNown can't start, look for backup Shane Matthews to get some more time this week. Matthews played admirably in relief last week, posting solid numbers (23-of-39, 266 yds., 2 TD, 1 INT) against mostly prevent coverages.

Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin blitzed just 17 percent of passing downs last week against the Packers and will most likely take the same approach this week against Chicago's multiple-receiver sets. The Bucs got consistent pressure on Brett Favre with their front four but they sacked him just once.

Tampa should have more success this week against a Bears' offensive line that will feature the second start by rookie ROG Rex Tucker. Tucker faced a speed player last week in St. Louis' D'Marco Farr and gave up one sack; but containing Pro Bowler Warren Sapp will be a much more difficult task for the young hog.

The Bears will see a lot of three-deep zone coverage that will discourage them from going vertical with WRs Marcus Robinson and Bobby Engram. FS Damien Robinson patrolled the deep third of the field better than he had all season in last Sunday's victory, intercepting two passes and delivering big hits when Green Bay's receivers ran crossing routes.

In order to move the ball this week, Chicago must incorporate the tight end into the passing game. The Bucs have been susceptible against the tight end at times this season and the loss of underneath WR Curtis Conway (injured reserve) will put pressure on the Bears' tight ends to produce. The TE trio of John Allred, Ryan Wetnight, and Alonzo Mayes combined for seven receptions and 84 yards last week against a Rams' linebacker corps that compares favorably to Tampa's athletic group.

Whoever plays at quarterback for the Bears must always be aware of OLB Derrick Brooks, who intercepted a pair of passes earlier in the season when the teams met at Raymond James Stadium.

The lack of a running game continues to put Chicago's offense in a hole early. Starting RB Curtis Enis aggravated shoulder and elbow injuries against the Rams, which means youngster James Allen should see plenty of reps this week. Allen piled up 93 yards from scrimmage last week and should be an upgrade from Enis as a receiver out of the backfield.

Last Sunday, the Bucs held the Packers to just 12 yards rushing -- the second lowest total in Green Bay's rich history. Tampa used a double-zone look that put pressure on the front four to stop the run and the unit came through, mostly because of the depth that kept everyone fresh.

The Bears, who are averaging just 87.7 yards per game on the ground, could have a hard time reaching that figure with a speed back like Allen. Teams that have had success running the ball against Tampa this season have generally been able to pound the ball inside with a bigger runner.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category CHI TB
Punt return avg. 2 22
Kickoff return avg. 9 18
Opp. punt return avg. 8 7
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 1 2
Time of possession 20 4
The Bears rid themselves of another kicker this week when they released Chris Boniol, who missed an extra point last week against the Rams. Jarrett Holmes inherits the job and he'll face great pressure, both from the weather and the circumstance, this week against the Bucs. In a matchup that exclusively showcased the kickers earlier in the season, Tampa has the clear advantage with steady Martin Gramatica. One positive the Bears could pull from last week's loss at St. Louis was the performance of P Todd Sauerbrun, who averaged an amazing 51.8 yards on five attempts. The Bucs' special teams pulled a fast one on the Packers, as well as the officials, in last Sunday's win. Damien Robinson, who usually lines up in a wing position on punts, took off from the tackle position and caught a pass from punter Mark Royals on a clever fake. What Ray Rhodes and the referees didn't notice was that Robinson should have been declared as an illegal man downfield on the play. Credit the Bucs' coaching staff for giving the play a try in pivotal game.

Key matchups

  • Tampa Bay RB Warrick Dunn vs. Chicago LB Warrick Holdman
    With QB King at quarterback, Dunn has become a big part of the passing game. The Bucs do a fine job of clearing out one side of the field and isolating Dunn on linebackers. This is a tough assignment for the Bears' rookie.

  • Tampa Bay WR Jacquez Green vs. Chicago DCs Azumah or Harris
    After coming on strong at mid-season, Green's production has tailed off badly. The Bucs have been looking to go vertically less the past few weeks but they must test Chicago's up-and-down secondary. Because of a hamstring injury, Harris doesn't have the speed to run with Green if he's beaten at the line of scrimmage. Azumah could get the start.

  • Chicago OC Olin Kruetz vs. Tampa Bay DT Warren Sapp
    The Bears held the Bucs to just two sacks in their Week 7 contest and Kruetz must have another strong showing to keep Sapp of QB McNown. Chicago's second-year center is one of the few interior linemen in the NFC that has the quickness to compete with Sapp.

    Chicago will win if...

  • The offense does a better job converting on third down they it did in the first meeting. The Bears were successful on just 6-of-18 third down attempts against the Bucs in Week 7 because QB McNown was forced into too many third-and-long situations. RB Enis must consistently gain four yards or more on first down.

  • They pressure QB King into some mental mistakes. Tampa's rookie signal-caller folded badly against the only team (Oakland) that put consistent pressure on him. The last time these two teams met, Trent Dilfer wasn't effected by the Bears' pass rush and thus took good care of the football. The Bears will need some turnovers on Sunday.

  • They play to QB McNown's strengths. Against a tough run defense like Tampa's, Chicago must roll-out McNown and let him make plays outside the pocket. If he can threaten the line of scrimmage and make some of the underneath defenders in Tampa's zone defense leave their coverage responsibilities, McNown will have success in the short passing game.

    Tampa Bay will win if...

  • Head coach Tony Dungy remains patient with the run game. Although they didn't run the ball well in the first half last week against the Packers, Dungy stuck with RB Alstott and his commitment paid off with an efficient ball-control ground attack. Because they've shuffled their linebacker corps since the first meeting, the Bears should provide a stiffer test this time around.

  • They are successful defending the "alley" routes against their zone coverage. Chicago has receivers who can run down the seams of the Bucs' zone, which will put great pressure on safeties Lynch and Robinson. If they walk Lynch up near the line of scrimmage to play the run, look for the Bears to take their shots downfield against the heavy-hitting Robinson.

  • They can make some big plays in the passing game. WR Anthony led the team with just 47 yards receiving in the first meeting and the Bucs will need better production through the air this time around. Chicago did a respectable job of defending the deep ball last week but RB Dunn could give them the same problems Marshall Faulk did in the screen game.

    The War Room edge
    The Bucs have never won a game when the temperature falls below 35 degrees but that streak could come to an end on Sunday. The Bucs came through with another huge defensive effort last Sunday against Green Bay and they're looking to secure the division title this week. Dick Jauron has his Bears fighting but they have little chance of pulling this one out with a rookie at quarterback. Tampa Bay is simply too strong up front for McNown to pull off the upset. Tampa heads into the playoffs on a serious roll after knocking off its second division rival in as many weeks.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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