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Tuesday, January 11
War Room: Vikings at Rams


Minnesota offense vs. St. Louis defense
VIKINGS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 14
Pass 4
Tot. Yds. 3
Scoring 5
Int's allowed 21
Sacks allowed 43
   
RAMS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 1
vs. Pass 24
Total yds. allowed 24
# of Ints. 29
# of Sacks 57
Turnover differential +5
Although he started slow last week against the Cowboys, QB Jeff George made the throws when it counted, finishing with three touchdown passes and, more importantly, zero interceptions. In a game that pits such strong offenses, it will be critical for both teams to avoid turnovers and penalties that kill scoring drives.

The key for the Vikings on Sunday will be George's ability to rise to the occasion in a big game and handle a raucous crowd on the road. This is a huge game for George in a personal sense because it's his opportunity to shed the "loser" label that has followed him throughout his career.

St. Louis must find a way to get to George early and keep their fans in the game. Minnesota's offensive line played extremely well last week but they gave up 43 sacks in the regular season and St. Louis' quickness up front is a big concern for offensive line coach Mike Tice.

The Rams racked up a league-high 57 sacks this season and they have the ability to apply pressure in a variety of different ways because the overall speed of the unit lends itself to countless blitz options. Although they'll need to keep people in coverage against Minnesota's spread offense, the Rams won't be afraid to blitz if that's what it takes to rattle George. St. Louis tends not to blitz their safeties as often as many teams, but George will have to keep an eye on DC's Todd Lyght and Dexter McCleon off the edge if either is covering the slot receiver.

The Vikings have done a tremendous job of incorporating big-play RB Robert Smith into the game plan and last week's win over the Cowboys was no different. Minnesota tied a season high with 175 yards on the ground because Smith got 28 touches. A recent change in personnel groupings that features more two-tight end and conventional fullback sets has sparked their recent ground success and it will important that they continue to feed Smith against the Rams. Smith has regained the burst that hernia problems stole earlier in the season and he is clearly hitting holes and getting past the front seven much more effectively.

Because the Vikings won't force them into so many nickel packages, the Rams need MLB London Fletcher to clamp down against all runs between the tackles. Fletcher is at his best in pursuit when he can use his speed to chase down plays from behind so look for offensive coordinator Ray Sherman to pound Smith and Leroy Hoard inside more than he has in recent games.

St. Louis offense vs. Minnesota defense
RAMS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 15
Pass 1
Tot. Yds. 1
Scoring 1
Int's allowed 15
Sacks allowed 33
   
VIKINGS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 14
vs. Pass 30
Total yds. allowed 27
# of Ints. 12
# of Sacks 46
Turnover differential -10
The thing that must concern the Vikings is that offensive coordinator Mike Martz has had two weeks to prepare a game plan for their suspect secondary. The Rams hold the advantage in nearly every skill position matchup and their ability to run countless formations with adaptable personnel will make them difficult to defend.

This year's St. Louis team nearly duplicated Minnesota's '98 explosive output, scoring over 32 points per game. As was the case with last season's Vikings, the Rams have jumped out to big leads early and simply poured it on late.

In their 38-31 loss to the Vikings a year ago, the Rams got the job done with far less talent and confidence on the offensive side of the ball. Issac Bruce, the lone starter that was playing at the same high level a year ago, scorched the Vikes for 11 receptions and 192 yards. On Sunday, against a secondary that was depleted in the off-season, Bruce probably won't do the same damage but his numbers will be distributed across a more balanced attack.

QB Kurt Warner does an excellent job of getting all of his receivers involved, but he'll be facing an inspired veteran defense that is peaking at the just the right time. The key to Minnesota's resurgence has been the play of the front four. The Vikings cranked up their pass rush late in the season, notching 16 of their 46 sacks in the final three games of the regular season.

Although they got to Troy Aikman just once as a unit last week, the play of DEs Chris Doleman and Duane Clemons has been stellar. Clemons will give ROT Fred Miller fits with his speed but Doleman has had little success against LOT Orlando Pace in the past. Last season, when Doleman had 15 sacks with San Francisco, he was shutout in both meetings against Pace.

The ability to rest workhorse RB Marshall Faulk down the stretch should pay big dividends on Sunday. Faulk's greatest asset is his ability to hurt a defense even if they take away one dimension of his game.

The Vikings allowed 3.9 yards per carry in the regular season, but their inability to tackle in space hurt them on a consistent basis. If the Vikings do contain Faulk on handoffs, his feel in the passing game and ability to set up defenses on screens and short dump-offs will ultimately prove too much for Foge Fazio's crew.

The only sign of hope for Minnesota has been the improved play in recent weeks of OLB Dwayne Rudd and Kailee Wong. This duo is one of the fastest in the league but their propensity to overrun plays and recklessly chase the ball hurt them until late in the season.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category MIN STL
Punt return avg. 21 14
Kickoff return avg. 9 1
Opp. punt return avg. 13 5
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 10 30
Time of possession 21 6
In a game that could go down to the wire, the extra week of rest was clearly beneficial for St. Louis PK Jeff Wilkins, who was able to rest an ailing plant leg that caused him problems late in the year. Minnesota's Gary Anderson would like nothing more than a shot to redeem himself after shanking a game-winner in last season's playoffs. Anderson was just 4-of-11 from beyond 40 yards in the regular season, which means the offense will have to get him close in order to get the chance. Both teams possess outstanding return men but Minnesota's recent rash of mistakes (i.e. turnovers) must cease on Sunday. Although St. Louis' offense can strike from anywhere on the field, Viking P Mitch Berger will play a key role with his big leg on kickoffs and punts.

Key matchups
  • St. Louis MLB London Fletcher vs. Minnesota RB Robert Smith
    The Vikings passing game gets all the glory but last week's decisive win over the Cowboys is a reflection of what Smith means to this team. Smith faced a speedy linebacker corps last week but he did a tremendous job of running with patience and making defenders miss in the open field. London can't get caught over-pursuing plays if the Rams are to stop Minnesota on the ground.

  • Minnesota DC Robert Tate vs. St. Louis WR Az Hakim
    Tate is playing better than practically any player in the Vikings' secondary but he hasn't faced a slot receiver like Hakim since his move to the defensive side of the ball. The Rams will use plenty of motion to get Hakim free in space underneath and Tate must do a solid job of closing on the ball and making the tackle. If Hakim can expose Minnesota's nickel package, it will be a long day for FS Anthony Bass.

  • Minnesota UT John Randle vs. St. Louis ROG Adam Timmerman
    This pair squared off many times when Timmerman was with the Packers so he realizes his importance on Sunday. Timmerman's experience against defensive coordinator Foge Fazio's schemes will help the entire Rams offensive line. The ex-Green Bay hog has had success in the past against Randle, but he'll have to fare well in one-on-one battles in order for the Rams to focus their attention on the Vikings' outside edge rushers.

    Minnesota will win if...
  • They can beat St. Louis deep in the passing game. Dallas chose to position their safeties deep last week but WR Randy Moss still found a way to get open down the field. The Rams nickel package has been burned this season by explosive passing teams (i.e. Detroit) but they can't afford any breakdowns in the coverage on Sunday. Minnesota QB Jeff George always finds a way to fit the ball in if defenders give his receivers a step.

  • They offensive line plays physically. The Vikings ran the ball at will against an undersized Dallas front four last Sunday and they'll face another quick group this week. St. Louis DTs D'Marco Farr and Ray Agnew are one of the top penetrating duos in the league, which means OG's Randall McDaniel and David Dixon need to lock on with their hands and engulf the pair at the point of attack.

  • The defense tackles well in the open field. The biggest way St. Louis can beat an opponent is with big chunks of yardage after the catch. Minnesota has struggled in this area all season and the back-seven has to step up this week. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz does a better job than most in the league of exploiting mismatches in coverage and, with two weeks to prepare, look for a number of different wrinkles from the Rams on Sunday.

    St. Louis will win if...

  • They put consistent pressure on the quarterback. QB Jeff George is streaky passer who has proved to be erratic in the past when opponents get to him. Conversely, if he's given time to stand in the pocket and make reads, George will pick apart the Rams' secondary. LDE Kevin Carter has been a terror all season but it will take a big day from his linemates to make the difference.

  • They win the battle on special teams. Both teams have explosive return men but PR Az Hakim and KOR Tony Horne are much more dependable in their roles than Minnesota's Robert Tate and Randy Moss. Special teams is an area of the game that goes greatly ignored by fans but nothing will get the TWA Dome crowd into it more than a couple of big returns or impact coverage plays.

  • RB Marshall Faulk gets into the flow early. The recent return of TE Ernie Conwell has solidified the outside running game, so look for the Rams to attack the flanks. Conwell's in-line blocking will be pivotal in Faulk's ability to run wide against a run defense that allowed almost four yards per carry in the regular season. With all that has happened to him in his career, there is no reason to believe QB Kurt Warner won't get the job done. All Faulk has to do is keep the Vikings' defense off-balance.

    The War Room edge
    The Vikings are one of the hottest teams in the league, but playing on the road in a hostile environment will be a huge challenge for a team that feels the pressure to redeem itself after last season's disappointing ending. The deciding factor in this game will the play of each team's quarterback. Minnesota's Jeff George hasn't won many big games over the course of his career but at least he's played in a few. St. Louis' Kurt Warner has dealt with adversity before and his mental toughness must get him through what should be an exciting shootout. The Vikings' dream season ended short last season but don't expect the same to happen to Dick Vermeil's Rams. St. Louis rolls into the NFC Championship.

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