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Thursday, September 30
War Room: Panthers at Redskins


Carolina offense vs. Redskins defense
PANTHERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 16
Pass 19
Tot. Yds. 21
Scoring 18
Int's allowed 7
Sacks allowed 27
   
REDSKINS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 31
vs. Pass 29
Total yds. allowed 31
Pts. allowed 29
Ints. 3
Sacks 11
Turnover differential +3
The Panthers' offense received a huge boost last week from RB Tshimanga Biakabutuka, who rushed for 132 yards on just eight carries. Carolina coach George Seifert wants nothing more than to run the football, and Biakabutuka looks like the big-play running threat that this franchise has always lacked. Although Seifert has said he will continue to use a platoon system, as he did in the first three games, look for Fred Lane to take a diminished role in the second half if Biakabutuka continues to make plays.

After being shredded in Week 1, Washington's run defense stiffened the past couple of weeks. Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has done an excellent job of motivating DTs Dana Stubblefield and Dan Wilkinson. The Skins are playing great one-gap technique up front, and the penetration they get up the middle is forcing a lot of plays outside, where speedy OLBs Shawn Barber and Greg Jones can string plays to the sideline. Washington needs big games from both SS Sam Shade and FS Leomont Evans, who must prevent Biakabutuka from breaking the long runs outside (67, 62 yards) he made a week ago.

The player that will benefit most from a running game is QB Steve Buerlein, who has completed more than 60 percent of his passes thus far. A productive running game will discourage the Redskins from teeing off on Buerlein, as was the case in the Panthers' first two games when he was sacked 11 times.

One area that Washington has improved each week is its pass rush. Since being torched by Dallas' Troy Aikman in the opener, the Skins have done a good job of getting after average quarterbacks (Kent Graham and Rick Mirer) that have sat too long in the pocket. Rookie ROT Chris Terry has held up well, but he'll have a tough test with LDE Kenard Lang, who erupted for three sacks last week against New York's Jason Fabini.

It will be an interesting matchup on the perimeter between the Carolina WRs and Washington's DCs. Darrell Green and rookie Champ Bailey form arguably the top tandem in the league, but Muhsin Muhammad and Rae Carruth are similar to Dallas' combo of Michael Irvin and Rocket Ismail. Muhammad, seventh in the league with 284 receiving yards, poses difficult matchup problems for the Redskins because of his size. Washington will attempt to cover deep threat Carruth with either of their DCs and roll coverage in Muhammad's direction.

REDSKINS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 8
Pass 6
Tot. Yds. 1
Scoring 1
Int's allowed 2
Sacks allowed 6
   
PANTHERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 27
vs. Pass 12
Total yds. allowed 25
Pts. allowed 5
Ints. 30
Sacks 9
Turnover differential -5
Redskins offense vs. Panthers defense
Except for a couple of breakdowns and miscues in the secondary, the New York Jets played well defensively last week against the Redskins. But despite that solid effort, Brad Johnson & Co. still managed to post 27 points.

The success of Washington's offense is based upon the protection given to Johnson, who has only been sacked twice all season. Washington's revamped offensive line shouldn't have many problems keeping the Panthers away from Johnson. Rookie ROT Jon Jansen held up well in his only real test vs. the Giants' Michael Strahan, but LDE Jason Peter should test him.

The Panthers have totaled nine sacks in three games, but they cannot afford too many zone-blitzes, which leaves their corners exposed to single matchups on Albert Connell and Michael Westbrook. LDC Eric Davis, who dropped two sure interceptions last week against the Bengals, has played well, but he must capitalize on opportunities this week if the Panthers have a chance at an upset.

Look for Washington TE Stephen Alexander to get plenty of work against veteran SLB Michael Barrow. Alexander, who has nine catches for 148 yards and two touchdowns in the past two weeks, is excellent at finding seams and should be able to run away from Barrow. With the addition of veteran WR Irving Fryar and Alexander's emergence as a legitimate downfield threat, coach Norv Turner is using more three-receiver sets to spread the field on third down.

The Skins went away from using third down back Larry Centers last week, and the offense suffered as a result. When they do go three-wides, expect Centers to at least have four or five balls thrown his way this week, especially if Carolina is mounting any sort of a pass rush -- nothing slows down a rush like a well-executed play in the flat.

Washington's vertical passing game is most successful when Johnson can play-action with RB Stephen Davis, so the Panthers must clamp down between the tackles early. The inside duo of Tim Morabito and ex-Redskin Sean Gilbert must stack at the point of attack and occupy the interior line, which will allow MLB Steve Tovar and SS Brent Alexander to fill and make tackles.

When the Redskins run game struggles, which hasn't been very often this season, they tend to favor running behind the right side of Jansen and LOG Tre Johnson. Unlike the first two weeks, the Redskins had to work for every yard the gained on the ground last week.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category CAR WAS
Punt return avg. 28 6
Kickoff return avg. 12 18
Opp. punt return avg. 4 2
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 4 25
Time of possession 30 18
The Panthers expected big things when they signed PR Eric Metcalf, and special teams coach Scott O'Brien is still waiting. Metcalf fumbled a punt last week and is averaging only 5.3 yards per return, and KOR Michael Bates (23.5 avg.) has yet to break anything either. Carolina's elite punt cover units are allowing just 2.2 yards per return, but they will be tested by Washington's Brian Mitchell, who is averaging a respectable 11.2 yards per punt return.

The Redskins appear to have found themselves a kicker to complement P Matt Turk. Brett Conway, a former third-round pick of the Green Bay Packers, has connected on all five of his field goal attempts, including three from beyond 40 yards. The only question mark surrounding Conway is his ability to convert with the game on the line. Carolina's John Kasay has the clear edge if the Panthers somehow keep this one close.

Key matchups

  • Redskin DTs Dana Stubblefield and Dan Wilkinson vs. Carolina RB Tim Biakabatuka
    The Redskins DTs are high-priced underachievers, but if they can control the Carolina run game, it gives them an excellent chance to win. Biakabatuka is becoming a key to Carolina's offensive success, and they must contain him.

  • Redskin WRs Michael Westbrook and Albert Connell vs. Carolina DCs Davis and Evans
    Although the Carolina corners are veterans, they are on the short end of this matchup, unless the Carolina pass rush can put pressure on QB Brad Johnson.

  • Carolina WR Muhsin Muhammad vs. Redskin DC Darrell Green
    Muhammad is quickly becoming Carolina's big-play WR, but he faces arguably the best DC in the business in Green, and may also get a dose of rookie Champ Bailey. If Washington shuts down Muhammad, it shuts down a lot of Carolina's capabilities.

    Carolina will win if...

  • QB Steve Beuerlein stays cool and makes good reads. He is a veteran facing a defense that he can exploit, but he must get good backside protection and have time to throw the football. Patience is the key here.

  • If they run the football and keep the Redskin offense off the field. A ball-control attack with Biakabatuka gives Carolina its best chance for a win. They must limit QB Brad Johnson and Co.'s offensive possessions.

  • If they don't allow big plays in the passing game. This is not a football team that can play from behind. They must make Washington drive the length of the field and try to create turnovers and hope for offensive mistakes. They are in trouble if they get into an offensive shootout.

    Washington will win if...

  • They show patience on defense. Carolina is not explosive enough on offense to beat them with big plays. If they keep the ball in front of them and force Carolina into multiple long drives, it is unlikely that the Panthers can score enough to stay in this game.

  • They can hit on some big plays in the passing game early. Carolina's worst nightmare is to have to play from behind early, which would mean they would have to abandon their emerging run game with Biakabatuka. Look for Washington to attack the Carolina secondary right out of the box.

  • If they can contain Carolina RB Tim Biakabatuka. He gives the Panthers their best chance for a ball-control, low-scoring football game, and if Washington can come after him with eight in the box, it will force Beuerlein and Co. to open up the passing attack, which is not really their strength.

    The War Room edge
    The Redskins are simply too explosive on offense for Carolina. The Skins' passing game is in a zone, and they will probably get a lead early. That will force Carolina to forgo its run game and play from behind, which is the worst thing that could happen to the Panthers. The Redskins are on a roll right now, and it should continue with an easy win over an out-manned Carolina team.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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