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Thursday, September 30
War Room: Saints at Bears


New Orleans offense vs. Chicago defense
SAINTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 11
Pass 26
Tot. Yds. 22
Scoring 16
Int's allowed 8
Sacks allowed 7
   
BEARS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 18
vs. Pass 28
Total yds. allowed 27
Pts. allowed 10
Ints. 27
Sacks 4
Turnover differential +2
The bye week could not have come at a better time for the Saints, who should have RB Ricky Williams back from the hyperextended elbow he suffered against San Francisco.

The Saints rushing offense is ranked ninth in the league, due in large part to the aggressiveness of the offensive line. While right side of ROG Chris Naeole and ROT Kyle Turley is struggling, the Saints are finding plenty of running room behind the veteran left side anchored by LOT Willie Roaf. The Saints are averaging nearly 40 yards per game more on the ground this season than they did a year ago, because position coach Bill Meyers has his unit fighting on every down.

The Saints ideally want Williams to carry the ball 25 times per game, but look for a more pass-heavy scheme on Sunday to protect Williams for at least another week.

The Bears played the run extremely well last week against Oakland, holding Raiders running backs to 62 yards on 21 carries. The Raiders were fortunate to that mobile QB Rich Gannon, who rushed for 47 yards on five carries, was able to break contain and make positive yardage. The Saints won't enjoy that luxury this week with QB Billy Joe Hobert.

If his injured hamstring doesn't heal, the Bears will again be forced to defend the run without LDT Jim Flanigan, who was relegated to nickel situations last week. Fortunately for the Bears, the recent signings of Shane Burton and Van Tuinei have solidified the depth along the defensive front.

As was the case with Williams, an additional week of rest should help TE Cam Cleeland return to near full strength. After the position was shut out in Week 1, Cleeland returned against the Niners and made a couple of nice receptions. Without any go-to possession receivers, it is imperative that Cleeland continue to work his way back into the lineup.

Look for the Saints to test the Bears' deep coverage for two reasons. First, Saints receivers, Eddie Kennison in particular, had great success getting behind the defense in the first two games, but Hobert simply hasn't been able to connect. Kennison should be able to take advantage of RDC Walt Harris, whose confidence is wavering after giving up three touchdowns in as many weeks.

Secondly, after watching film, the Saints' coaching staff will quickly realize how susceptible the Bears' nickel package has been to the big play. In long down-and-distance situations, opponents have converted on second-and-24, second-and-22, third-and-16, and third-and-20. Another thing to look for is more quick slants and "skinny posts" to WR Keith Poole, who has turned one of these routes into long touchdowns in each of the first two games and should take advantage of the huge cushion being given by the Bears' corners.

Chicago offense vs. New Orleans defense
BEARS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 27
Pass 9
Tot. Yds. 17
Scoring 24
Int's allowed 6
Sacks allowed 18
   
SAINTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 28
vs. Pass 18
Total yds. allowed 9
Ints. 22
Sacks 3
Turnover differential -2
The Bears have become far too conservative on offense, and the play calling completely contradicts offensive coordinator Gary Crowton's wide-open system. Look for the Bears to spread the field with more three- and four-receiver sets on Sunday in order to create more running room for RB Curtis Enis.

Enis was held in check last week (72 total yards) because the Raiders never felt the threat of a deep passing game. The Bears don't have a whole lot of confidence in starting QB Shane Matthews' arm strength, but they need to at least let him take some shots downfield to WRs Curtis Conway and Bobby Engram. After a couple of disappointing seasons, Conway is once again playing at a high-level, but he will face a good challenge this week from Saints DCs Ashley Ambrose and Tyrone Drakeford.

If the Saints can take Conway out of the game and force Matthews to check off to his second and third options, look for plenty of underneath passes to the tight ends and Enis coming out of the backfield. The Bears have all but ignored the tight end thus far, but they should be able to exploit strong-side LB Keith Mitchell. Mitchell has played fairly well over the tight end thus far but he's struggled in coverage throughout his career.

Chicago's running game has been unable to get untracked because they are simply overmatched at the point of attack. A change in philosophy (from zone to drop step) will hurt this team until the line becomes comfortable with the angles required of the finesse-based approach.

The Bears might again be without the services of LOT Blake Brockermeyer, which forces the team to go with rookie Jerry Wisne. Wisne struggled in pass protection and his four penalties (three false starts and a tripping call) put the offense in some bad positions. The Saints need a big day from RDE Brady Smith. Oakland edge rusher Lance Johnstone used his speed to beat Wisne for two sacks last week, and Smith is a comparable threat.

The Saints linebacking corps is playing well above expectations to this point. Weakside backer Mark Fields spearheads a Saints run defense that is ranked 10th in the league. Chicago must start getting some bigger plays out of the run game -- Enis' longest run the past two weeks is only 10 yards. Enis' problem is that he has had a hard time getting past the opposition's front seven, because teams are stacking the line with little fear of a deep passing game-another reason Matthews must take some deep shots early.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category NO CHI
Punt return avg. 27 1
Kickoff return avg. 7 1
Opp. punt return avg. 1 20
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 11 12
Time of possession 11 14
New Orleans' biggest concern will be the Bears' return game. RS Glyn Milburn hasn't looked this good since he made the Pro Bowl in 1995. Milburn has been consistent on both kickoffs and punts, averaging 31.5 per kick return.

The Bears have problems on special teams as well. After missing nearly a month due to a hip injury, PK Jeff Jaeger did not look good in his first week back with the team. Despite hitting a 52-yarder, Jaeger hooked two kicks (46, 48 yards) wide left. The good news for the Bears is that Jaeger's injury did not cost him any length.

The duo of Troy Davis and Dino Philyaw has been a pleasant surprise on kick returns for the Saints, averaging 24.7 and 22.0 respectively. Eddie Kennison does not appear to be the answer on punt returns. Although he has outstanding straightline speed, Kennison lacks the anticipation and quickness to make the first wave miss. P Tommy Barnhardt isn't booming many long kicks (37.1 average) but his outstanding height leads to very few returns.

Key matchups

  • Saints RB Ricky Williams vs. Bears defensive front seven
    The Saints have built their whole offense around a power run game, and if Ricky Williams can pile up the yards, they will control the clock and the flow of this game.

  • Chicago offensive coordinator Gary Crowton vs. New Orleans defensive coordinator Zaven Yaralian
    The Bears are getting rave reviews for their offensive creativity and their four and five WR sets, and the Saints must do a good job of matching up and keeping the ball in front of them, not allowing big plays in the passing game.

  • Chicago WRs Curtis Conway and Bobby Engram vs. the New Orleans secondary
    The Bears receivers love this offense, and if they can get New Orleans in single coverage matchups, they can make some big plays. The key here for New Orleans is to not let the receivers get behind them.

    New Orleans will win if...

  • RB Ricky Williams can stay healthy and get 25-30 carries. Mike Ditka would like nothing better than to pound Williams at the Chicago defense and totally control the clock and flow of this game. If they are successful, it keeps the Chicago passing attack on the sideline.

  • The Saints defense keeps the Chicago passing game in front of them. The Bears do a great job of probing defenses and finding matchups that they can take advantage of. The Saints' challenge is to be patient and not give up the big plays, but instead punish the receivers in the short to intermediate routes.

  • QB Billy Joe Hobert can convert favorable matchups in the passing game. Chicago will likely give New Orleans a heavy dose of eight-man fronts to stop Ricky Williams, and Hobert will certainly get his share of single-coverage matchups. If he can make big plays in the Saints' passing game, it gives New Orleans a much better chance.

    Chicago will win if...

  • They continue to spread the ball around on offense. Nine different offensive players had receptions against the Raiders a week ago, and this offense is doing a great job of spreading defenses and distributing the ball.

  • The Bears defense stops RB Ricky Williams and forces QB Billy Joe Hobert to convert in the passing game. The best chance for a Bears' win is if the Saints' QB has to win this game throwing the football. That will play right into the Bears' hands, as New Orleans wants to grind this game out on the ground.

  • RB Curtis Enis gives them offensive balance with an improved run game. They cannot afford to become a one-dimensional passing team. If Enis has a big day, it sets up the passing game and even improves their matchup possibilities.

    The War Room edge
    New Orleans coach Mike Ditka would like nothing more than to beat his old team in his town. However, the only chance New Orleans has is if Ricky Williams can stay healthy and grind out the run game. The Bears hung tough on the road last week against a solid Raiders defense. That game will help them this week. The only thing that will prevent the Bears from winning this game is the health of RB Curtis Enis. This one will come down to which RB can contribute the most. We say Enis.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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