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Thursday, September 30 War Room: Saints at Bears The War Room New Orleans offense vs. Chicago defense
The Saints rushing offense is ranked ninth in the league, due in large part to the aggressiveness of the offensive line. While right side of ROG Chris Naeole and ROT Kyle Turley is struggling, the Saints are finding plenty of running room behind the veteran left side anchored by LOT Willie Roaf. The Saints are averaging nearly 40 yards per game more on the ground this season than they did a year ago, because position coach Bill Meyers has his unit fighting on every down. The Saints ideally want Williams to carry the ball 25 times per game, but look for a more pass-heavy scheme on Sunday to protect Williams for at least another week. The Bears played the run extremely well last week against Oakland, holding Raiders running backs to 62 yards on 21 carries. The Raiders were fortunate to that mobile QB Rich Gannon, who rushed for 47 yards on five carries, was able to break contain and make positive yardage. The Saints won't enjoy that luxury this week with QB Billy Joe Hobert. If his injured hamstring doesn't heal, the Bears will again be forced to defend the run without LDT Jim Flanigan, who was relegated to nickel situations last week. Fortunately for the Bears, the recent signings of Shane Burton and Van Tuinei have solidified the depth along the defensive front. As was the case with Williams, an additional week of rest should help TE Cam Cleeland return to near full strength. After the position was shut out in Week 1, Cleeland returned against the Niners and made a couple of nice receptions. Without any go-to possession receivers, it is imperative that Cleeland continue to work his way back into the lineup. Look for the Saints to test the Bears' deep coverage for two reasons. First, Saints receivers, Eddie Kennison in particular, had great success getting behind the defense in the first two games, but Hobert simply hasn't been able to connect. Kennison should be able to take advantage of RDC Walt Harris, whose confidence is wavering after giving up three touchdowns in as many weeks. Secondly, after watching film, the Saints' coaching staff will quickly realize how susceptible the Bears' nickel package has been to the big play. In long down-and-distance situations, opponents have converted on second-and-24, second-and-22, third-and-16, and third-and-20. Another thing to look for is more quick slants and "skinny posts" to WR Keith Poole, who has turned one of these routes into long touchdowns in each of the first two games and should take advantage of the huge cushion being given by the Bears' corners.
Chicago offense vs. New Orleans defense
Enis was held in check last week (72 total yards) because the Raiders never felt the threat of a deep passing game. The Bears don't have a whole lot of confidence in starting QB Shane Matthews' arm strength, but they need to at least let him take some shots downfield to WRs Curtis Conway and Bobby Engram. After a couple of disappointing seasons, Conway is once again playing at a high-level, but he will face a good challenge this week from Saints DCs Ashley Ambrose and Tyrone Drakeford. If the Saints can take Conway out of the game and force Matthews to check off to his second and third options, look for plenty of underneath passes to the tight ends and Enis coming out of the backfield. The Bears have all but ignored the tight end thus far, but they should be able to exploit strong-side LB Keith Mitchell. Mitchell has played fairly well over the tight end thus far but he's struggled in coverage throughout his career. Chicago's running game has been unable to get untracked because they are simply overmatched at the point of attack. A change in philosophy (from zone to drop step) will hurt this team until the line becomes comfortable with the angles required of the finesse-based approach. The Bears might again be without the services of LOT Blake Brockermeyer, which forces the team to go with rookie Jerry Wisne. Wisne struggled in pass protection and his four penalties (three false starts and a tripping call) put the offense in some bad positions. The Saints need a big day from RDE Brady Smith. Oakland edge rusher Lance Johnstone used his speed to beat Wisne for two sacks last week, and Smith is a comparable threat. The Saints linebacking corps is playing well above expectations to this point. Weakside backer Mark Fields spearheads a Saints run defense that is ranked 10th in the league. Chicago must start getting some bigger plays out of the run game -- Enis' longest run the past two weeks is only 10 yards. Enis' problem is that he has had a hard time getting past the opposition's front seven, because teams are stacking the line with little fear of a deep passing game-another reason Matthews must take some deep shots early.
Special teams
The Bears have problems on special teams as well. After missing nearly a month due to a hip injury, PK Jeff Jaeger did not look good in his first week back with the team. Despite hitting a 52-yarder, Jaeger hooked two kicks (46, 48 yards) wide left. The good news for the Bears is that Jaeger's injury did not cost him any length. The duo of Troy Davis and Dino Philyaw has been a pleasant surprise on kick returns for the Saints, averaging 24.7 and 22.0 respectively. Eddie Kennison does not appear to be the answer on punt returns. Although he has outstanding straightline speed, Kennison lacks the anticipation and quickness to make the first wave miss. P Tommy Barnhardt isn't booming many long kicks (37.1 average) but his outstanding height leads to very few returns.
Key matchups The Saints have built their whole offense around a power run game, and if Ricky Williams can pile up the yards, they will control the clock and the flow of this game.
The Bears are getting rave reviews for their offensive creativity and their four and five WR sets, and the Saints must do a good job of matching up and keeping the ball in front of them, not allowing big plays in the passing game.
The Bears receivers love this offense, and if they can get New Orleans in single coverage matchups, they can make some big plays. The key here for New Orleans is to not let the receivers get behind them.
New Orleans will win if...
Chicago will win if...
The War Room edge
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