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Thursday, September 30
War Room: Patriots at Browns


New England offense vs. Cleveland defense
PATRIOTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 23
Pass 4
Tot. Yds. 9
Scoring 9
Int's allowed 3
Sacks allowed 8
   
BROWNS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 19
vs. Pass 22
Total yds. allowed 29
Pts. allowed 30
Ints. 15
Sacks 22
Turnover differential -6
The Patriots have to concentrate on finding the most successful formula for establishing a running game. There is no question that New England is most dangerous when it open the offense up and allow Bledsoe to throw downfield, but eventually the team's inability to run the football will catch up to them.

There has been little room to run and the backs have been unable to generate any running room on their own. RT Zefross Moss, the teams best run blocker, has been sidelined with a sprained ankle for the last two games but will return to action this Sunday. With Moss at tackle, Max Lane back at guard and the steady improvement of rookie OC Damien Woody, the Patriots have a shot at getting some production out of the run game Sunday.

Veteran RB Terry Allen has been designated as the team's premier back until Kevin Faulk gets healthy and has time to develop. The Browns are at an immediate disadvantage vs. the run with the gap-plugging John Jurkovic out with an undetermined clavicle injury. His spot went to Darius Holland, who is much younger, quicker and more athletic than Jurkovic but does not have as much experience or size to clog up the middle.

The Patriots have the opportunity to make this game as ugly as they want it to be. The Browns are working with a depleted secondary that has little depth and little chance to hold up against New England's receiving corps and TE Ben Coates.

Starting FS Tim McTyer will be out for about five more weeks after fracturing his left forearm in the 26-9 loss to Tennessee two games ago. His replacement is Marlon Forbes, who battled McTyer for the starting job in preseason camp. The Browns should be able to hold up there, although McTyer had been playing the best of anyone in the secondary.

Cornerback Antonio Langham, who started the opener but is now in the substitution packages, will be gone for 1-3 more weeks with a broken left thumb suffered against the Titans. He has been replaced in dime situations by Ray Jackson, who was inactive for the first two games.

When New England decides to open things up and attack the Browns secondary it should have unlimited success. The Patriots have a four-receiver package with Terry Glenn, Shawn Jefferson, Tony Simmons and Troy Brown that puts opposing secondaries at a distinct disadvantage. The Patriots are most productive when they spread the field and give Bledsoe time in the pocket to make his "checklist reads."

The improved play of rookie OC Damien Woody has given the Pats line a big boost and allows Bledsoe to step up in the pocket and follow through on his throws. At 6-foot-3, 319 pounds, Woody is a solid, powerful player who was drafted for his ability to open holes in the middle of the line. The team has found that he can also be a huge factor in the passing game because of his strength at the point of contact. Once he sets himself and establishes a solid base to defend against the defensive rush, he rarely gets pushed back into the quarterback.

Cleveland offense vs. New England defense
BROWNS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 30
Pass 31
Tot. Yds. 31
Scoring 31
Int's allowed 17
Sacks allowed 30
   
PATRIOTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 8
vs. Pass 21
Total yds. allowed 18
Pts. allowed 23
Ints. 5
Sacks 24
Turnover differential +4
With teams stacking eight men in the box, the Browns have had all sorts of trouble running the ball. Last week, Terry Kirby carried the load with 18 attempts but only averaged 2.8 yards per carry.

A concern on the line is the loss of Steve Zahursky to a knee injury, which means that Scott Rehberg will be inserted at the right guard position. Zahursky was one of the Browns' most athletic lineman and beat out Rehberg for the starting job. The Patriots will look to exploit this weakness by lining Chad Eaton head-up on Rehberg while at the same time blitzing a linebacker into his gap to force Rehberg to overextend.

Head Coach Pete Carroll and defensive coordinator Steve Sidwell have done an excellent job of designing a 4-3 defensive scheme that plays an awful lot like a 3-4 system against the run. ROLB Teddy Bruschi is considered an outside linebacker in theory, but his position calls for him to line up as an inside linebacker on most run-down situations in what the Patriots call the "plug" linebacker.

What this does is give the Patriot's defense two inside linbackers (with MLB Andy Katzenmoyer) that play inside the tackles and are able to run-blitz any of the inside gaps. In this scheme, New England never drops Bruschi into coverage, which allows him to concentrate on the run and get upfield.

With every start, rookie quarterback Tim Couch seems to gain confidence and a better understanding of the offense. Couch has not had much time to work in the pocket and doesn't have many weapons to throw to, but his improvement has been impressive, and this early career experience has been beneficial in his development.

New England will take the same approach that Couch's first two opponents have taken, and that is to blitz the rookie frequently and force him to make quick decisions. Couch has developed a good sense of blitz recognition, but he has yet to get on the same page with his receivers. When trying to beat the blitz, the most important factor is how well the quarterback and his receivers work together. Teams that are effective beating the blitz have quarterbacks with an excellent feel for where his receivers are going to be immediately off the line of scrimmage. With more experience together and time to work as teammates, Couch will become more comfortable with where his receivers will be on "hot reads" and he will be able to throw to spots on the field instead of waiting for his receivers to break out of their routes.

Expect New England to match up its corners in man-to-man coverage, leaving the linebackers and SS Lawyer Milloy available to blitz Couch from all angles. The Pats are confident in Ty Law's ability to single cover rookie Kevin Johnson, which will allow CB Steve Israel, who has made monumental strides this season in his coverage ability, to press Leslie Shephard off the line of scrimmage. Israel will play a physical game with Shephard and force him to get upfield where Israel will have help in the deep third from FS Chris Carter.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category NE CLE
Punt return avg. 12 19
Kickoff return avg. 24 25
Opp. punt return avg. 18 15
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 21 26
Time of possession 21 31
PK Adam Vinatieri is making a bid for Patriots team MVP after kicking what has turned out to be all three game-winning field goals. Vinatieri is 7-of-7 on the season with a long of 41 yards. Lee Johnson had a solid performance Sunday night against the Giants, averaging 41.2-yards per punt and landing one of two opportunities inside the 20. The Patriots need to get downfield faster and keep lane contain on kickoffs. The Giants were able to establish good field position on every kickoff return, and it seemed to take the momentum away from the Patriots after each score.

For the Jets, Chris Gardocki could set a new record for punt attempts. Gardocki averaged 44.7 yards per punt on 10 attempts but landed two in the end zone that could have been placed inside the 20. The return game can only be described as boring. Rookie Kevin Johnson has yet to show any big-play flair as a return man.

Key matchups

  • New England ROT Zefross Moss vs. Cleveland LDE Derrick Alexander
    Moss is an outstanding run blocker but has had trouble with speed rush defensive ends. Moss is coming back after missing two weeks with a sprained ankle and may have trouble getting to the outside against Alexander's upfield rush. If Alexander can dominate this matchup, he will disrupt the rhythm of Drew Bledsoe and the passing game and give the Cleveland secondary a chance in coverage.

  • New England TE Ben Coates vs. Cleveland SLB Rahim Abdullah
    Ben Coates makes the Patriots passing game so dynamic because of his ability to get open underneath and pick up crucial first downs. Abdullah will be responsible for covering Coates off the line of scrimmage and will need to eliminate Coates on third down passing situations.

  • Cleveland LG Scott Rehberg vs. New England DT Chad Eaton
    Rehberg has had trouble handling his man in one-on-one situations, but the Browns cannot afford to use OC Dave Walebaugh in double-team situations that will allow MLB Andy Katzenmoyer to get a clear gap on the blitz.

    New England will win if...

  • The Patriots need to create pressure from their front four, which will allow them to drop six and seven men in coverage and throw a lot of different coverage schemes at rookie QB Tim Couch.

  • New England needs to throw the ball in order to set up the run. It is no secret that the Patriots are a pass-oriented offense. By spreading the field with their three-reciever sets and forcing Cleveland into a lot of nickel packages on first and second downs, more running lanes should open up and allow the Pats to catch the Browns by surprise when running the ball.

  • Turnovers and penalties need to be kept to a minimum. New England is superior, talent-wise, to the Browns, but the way to lose games like this one is to turn the ball over and give the underdog a lot of second chances.

    Cleveland will win if...

  • The Browns need pressure form their defensive ends in the nickel package, which they could wind up using most of the afternoon vs. New England's three and four receiver sets.

  • The Browns need to give Tim Couch more time to throw. The rookie has had no time and has been unable to look off the primary receiver and find a second or third option backside or underneath.

  • Cleveland is going to have to get excellent play out of its safeties and third corners in order to cover New England's talented receiver sets as well as TE Ben Coates.

    The War Room edge
    New England has come firing out of the gates with a 3-0 start and will look to make it 4-0 against an inferior Cleveland Browns football team. The Browns are improving with every game, and QB Time Couch has shown great improvement from game to game. The Patriots should be able to take the crowd out of this game early with an explosive passing attack and a tough pass rush on the rookie quarterback. New England should win this game in convincing fashion by getting out to a big lead early and forcing the Browns to play catch-up all afternoon.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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