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Thursday, September 30 War Room: Jets at Broncos The War Room New York offense vs. Denver defense
The Jets are without their starting quarterback and No. 2 receiver and are playing with an offensive line that was supposed to be protected by elite talent at the skill positions. Now that opponents are able to put more men in the box without concern for the passing game, the offensive line's deficiencies become exposed. The Jets did establish a run game on Sunday and were able to spell Curtis Martin with newly acquired Bernie Parmalee. Knowing that Denver is going to attack Rick Mirer and force him to make quick decisions with the football, Bill Parcells will, more than ever, turn to the running game to set the pace early to hush the Mile High crowd. Denver's most serious concern may be against the run, where the defense has allowed an average of 154.7 yards per game. The Broncos' undersized defensive line has been exposed over the course of the first few weeks and has been unable to protect its linebackers. Blockers are able to shed the defensive tackles and ends and get downfield to chip the linebackers and take them out of plays. Teams have been running downhill, which allows offensive linemen time to get a good angle, kick out the linebacker and give the running back room to make the cutback into the secondary. The Jets have two inexperienced offensive guards that will be the key to their running game and possibly the entire production of the offense. If Kerry Jenkins and Randy Thomas can handle Trevor Pryce and Keith Traylor, it will allow for OC Kevin Mawae to release off the line and chase down a linebacker in pursuit of the play. Mawae is athletic enough that he becomes in essence an extra fullback if he is uncovered. He will get a lot of isolation blocks in the running game to clear out running lanes for Martin and Parmalee. The Jets glaring weakness is their inability to throw the football with any success or consistency. There are a lot of variables that make up this problem, but the biggest concern is Rick Mirer's understanding of the offense and his ability to execute within the given parameters. The Jets have tried to roll him out, set him up in the pocket, run play-action off of the run and even empty the backfield to spread the field. The one constant is that defenses are coming after Mirer and have been successful doing so because of his inability to beat the blitz on a consistent basis. This week will be an excellent opportunity for the Bronco defense to set a tone for the rest of the season. Denver has been stagnant in its approach and has shown little aggressiveness in coverage.CB Dale Carter has been one of the biggest disappointments for the squad. Carter was brought in to play the roll of "shut-down" corner, allowing the rest of the secondary to roll coverage to Ray Crockett's side, or be able to help in run support. Carter has not given up many big plays, but he has been giving a huge pad to receivers, which is uncharacteristic, and allowing a lot of room underneath. Carter will line up against WR Dedric Ward, and this should be a matchup that the veteran corner dominates. On the far side, Crocket will line head up with Keyshawn Johnson and make this a physical matchup underneath, with the comfort of knowing that his safeties are rolled over and will pick him up in the deep third. This will be very similar to a two-deep coverage, but only will be played on the right side of the defense. The Jets realize that they began to move the ball last week when they found a way to get Keyshawn some more touches. Coach Parcells will scheme a way to get the ball in Johnson's hands anyway possible, so the biggest key to this game could be the secondaries ability to communicate and react to Johnson's motion and movement off the line of scrimmage.
Denver offense vs. New York defense
Davis has had to work for his yardage more than any other season, but when he clears the line of scrimmage he lacks the same burst that propelled him into so many defensive backfields for big gains. With that said, the Jets are going to pack it in tight and make sure that Davis has little room to operate. Last Sunday, and as will be the case this Sunday, the Buccaneers sent linebackers, safeties and cornerbacks at Griese on sure passing downs. The rest of the time, they sent the house against Davis. Expect to see strong safety Steve Atwater close to the line of scrimmage, and Bill Belichick 3-4 defense will be shooting each gap with a different body. The Broncos know what they have to do on offense to take some of the pressure off of Brian Griese but have not been able to execute. Griese has thrown longs of 19 and 21 yards in the last two games, which is hardly the vertical threat that would force defenses to back off their pressure.This week, however, the Broncos draw favorable matchups on receivers Ed McCaffrey and Rod Smith and need to take advantage of the size difference. CB Ray Mickens, in particular, has had trouble matching up with bigger receivers, as witnessed last week with two costly pass interference penalties. The Jets are in a compromising situation in the secondary because of TE Shannon Sharpe's ability to stretch the defense and force coverage from the free safety. New York has been able to roll coverage back and forth to help out its corners in the deep third. With Sharpe streaking down the seams, Mickens and Aaron Glenn are going to be forced into a lot of man-to-man situations. The only way to exploit these matchups will be to spread the field vertically and go up top early in the game. This will drive the linebackers back into coverage and possibly give Griese some time in the pocket to make his reads downfield.
Special teams
Denver's punter, Tom Rouen, has seen his role increase ten-fold from a season ago. Rouen averaged 46.7 yards per punt on seven attempts last Sunday and kept the ball out of Denver territory for most of the game. Rookie Chris Watson has been consistent, and with time should become a top return man in this league.
Key matchups The two inexperienced guards may struggle vs. one of the top defensive tackle tandems in the NFL. If Kevin Mawae is forced to help with the double team, rookie MLB Al Wilson will have a big day blitzing the A and B gaps. The Jets' undersized corners will lock up on many downs in man-to-man coverage against Denvers explosive receivers, daring Brian Griese to exploit the matchups. Ray Mickens has to bounce back after committing two costly interference penalties last week against the Redskins. The Jets will target the inexperienced offensive tackle and force him to recognize and pick up the blitzing linebacker off the edge.
New York will win if...
Denver will win if...
The War Room edge With Rick Mirer at the helm and the injury to WR Wayne Chrebet, the Jets have too many obstacles to overcome on offense. The Broncos also have the built-in advantage of playing the Jets at Mile High Stadium and should be able to translate the emotion of the game into the first win of the season.
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