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Thursday, September 30
War Room: Buccaneers at Vikings


Tampa Bay offense vs. Minnesota defense
BUCCANEERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 7
Pass 29
Tot. Yds. 29
Scoring 26
Int's allowed 29
Sacks allowed 24
   
VIKINGS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 21
vs. Pass 26
Total yds. allowed 28
Pts. allowed 13
Ints. 31
Sacks 23
Turnover differential -2
The Bucs were the only team last season that executed the perfect game plan to defeat the Vikes -- ball control offense. In their 27-24 victory in Week 8, RBs Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott combined for 243 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

Conversely, in their 31-7 season-opening loss last year, the Bucs' backfield duo posted a paltry 59 yards. Judging from those numbers, the Bucs must run the football and keep their defense off the field in order to win.

Tampa's offensive line had its best game of the season last week in the run game, paving the way for Alstott's career-best 131 yards. The Bucs also got a big game from fullback/tight end Patrick Hape who did a tremendous job on isolation blocks out of the team's Rhino set.

OC Tony Mayberry and LOG Jorge Diaz handled the Broncos' inside but they will face a tougher test this week in the Vikings' John Randle and Tony Williams. Randle was shut down last week against the Packers and he rarely has consecutive poor outings. Mayberry should fare well this week because he plays much better uncovered and Minnesota's starting defensive tackles are penetrating one-gap players.

Look for Vikings' veteran reserve Joe Phillips to see plenty of time on Sunday, because he will give the Bucs more problems at the point of attack. If Phillips and MLB Ed McDaniel can do the job inside, the Bucs will have a hard time getting Dunn going on the perimeter.

Last week, QB Trent Dilfer executed the game plan about as well as could be expected, completing 15-of-18 passes for 135 yards. The big key for the Bucs was that Dilfer did not turn the ball over, and he didn't put the defense in bad position. Don't expect head coach Tony Dungy to deviate from that philosophy again this week. The Bucs have the weapons to open things up but Dilfer is much better off in a low-risk, high-percentage offense.

As good as Tampa's offensive line was opening holes for Alstott, they were equally as bad protecting Dilfer. Some injuries during the course of the game forced some reshuffling of the unit and consequently resulted in seven Bronco sacks. A number of the sacks could be attributed to solid coverage in the secondary, but ROT Jason Odom is really struggling.

The Vikings' aggressive defense was sliced by Brett Favre last week but 77 of his 304 yards came on the final game-winning drive. Minnesota will go after Dilfer early with many of the same blitz looks that Denver threw his way last week, because the Vikings don't feel Dilfer will have the same patience two weeks in a row.

Vikings offense vs. Bucs defense
VIKINGS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 22
Pass 7
Tot. Yds. 13
Scoring 20
Int's allowed 19
Sacks allowed 20
   
BUCCANEERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 1
vs. Pass 1
Total yds. allowed 1
Pts. allowed 2
Ints. 22
Sacks 3
Turnover differential -9
The Vikings offense struggled to put up points again last week, and some members of this unit are beginning to question offensive coordinator Ray Sherman's game plan.

Teams are playing a simple "cover 2" defense against the Vikings, with soft coverage on the corners, but the Vikings have not devised a way to beat it yet. It will be important of for the Vikings to jump out to an early lead, which will force the Bucs to play tighter man coverage on WRs Randy Moss, Cris Carter, and Jake Reed.

The key to the Bucs success thus far has been the ability to put pressure on the passer with their front four. The same holds true this week. DT Warren Sapp will be playing with a heavy wrap on his left hand, which will limit his pass rush moves, so look for rookie Anthony McFarland to receive more than his normal 12-15 plays on Sunday.

Against a zone defense, QB Randall Cunningham must be patient and have confidence that his veteran receiving corps, including TE Andrew Glover, will find the soft spot and seams in the zone. Cunningham played extremely well in his only start against the Bucs last season, completing 21-of-25 passes for 291 yards and two touchdowns. FS Damien Robinson and backup DC Brian Kelly will be the key players for Tampa.

Minnesota ran the ball extremely well in its opener last season against the Bucs, but the Vikes were shut down later in the year in the team's only regular-season loss. RBs Robert Smith and Leroy Hoard are both struggling this season without an experienced fullback in the lineup, rushing for 206 yards on 56 carries (3.1 avg.) combined. The loss of lead blocker Charles Evans has magnified the inconsistent play of the offensive line.

The Vikings also are struggling to get any sort of consistency from the guys up front, and much of their struggles can be attributed to the lack of an explosive passing game. Without the fear of Randy Moss getting open deep, defenses are starting to cheat up a step, making it that much more difficult for the offensive line.

The Bucs' top-ranked run defense was stout again last week, holding Denver's Terrell Davis to less than three yards per carry. If Minnesota doesn't strike quickly, SS John Lynch will become a huge factor in the run game.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category TB MIN
Punt return avg. 14 29
Kickoff return avg. 15 4
Opp. punt return avg. 9 25
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 1 15
Time of possession 5 17
RS Jacquez Green's muffed punt last week led to the only touchdown the Bucs' defense has surrendered all year, and you can bet Green has heard about it all week. Green hasn't looked nearly as explosive this season, and he needs to start setting up his offense with better field position.

P Mark Royals has been excellent, dropping the ball inside the 20 seven times. Royals must have a good day with his directional punting against Minnesota RS David Palmer, who has been close to breaking a number of big plays in the first three weeks.

The Vikings' special teams played their best game of the season last week against the Packers. PK Gary Anderson finally seems to have his problems figured out, and the coverage units took care of the Packers' Desmond Howard.

Key matchups

  • Minnesota OL vs. Tampa Bay DL
    The Vikings OL is among the best in the NFL, but they have not played well the entire 1999 season , and they face the best defensive front-four in the NFL. This game will be won in the trenches.

  • Minnesota WRs (Carter, Moss, Reed) vs. Bucs secondary
    If Minnesota can get single coverage matchups with the Bucs DCs, they can convert some big plays in the passing game. The key in this matchup is the pressure that Tampa Bay puts on Minnesota with their front-four.

  • Bucs RB Mike Alstott vs. Minnesota defensive front
    Tampa Bay will try to pound the interior of the Minnesota defense with Alstott to give them ball-control and time of possession.

    Tampa Bay will win if...

  • They run the football like they did a year ago vs. Minnesota, when the Bucs rushed for more than 250 yards and controlled the clock. The way you beat the Vikings is to keep their offense on the sidelines, control the clock, and limit their offensive possessions.

  • The defensive-front four puts pressure on QB Randall Cunningham and forces bad reads. The key for the Bucs is to get to Cunningham with only four rushers, which will allow them to commit seven defenders to pass defense, which will in turn, give them some double coverage packages on the talented Viking WRs.

  • If QB Trent Dilfer doesn't have to win the game in the fourth quarter. The Bucs want to win this one with a time-consuming, ball-control attack and a great defensive effort. If they are playing from behind in the fourth quarter and have to throw the football, they could be in trouble.

    Minnesota will win if...

  • Their defense can stop the Bucs' run game. Although the Vikes have not shown the offensive explosiveness expected, they cannot afford to let Tampa Bay limit their offensive possessions with a run game that eats up the clock.

  • If they force QB Trent Dilfer to convert in the passing game. The way to beat Tampa Bay is to force Dilfer to make plays, and Minnesota will commit eight to the run and encourage him to throw the football.

  • If they can score early and force Tampa Bay to play from behind. The Bucs are not an explosive come from behind offense, and an early Viking lead would force them to abandon their run game and throw the football more than they would like.

    The War Room edge
    This promises to be a very physical game and is a classic matchup between a great Tampa Bay defense and an explosive Minnesota offense that hasn't yet found its stride in 1999. If the Bucs can pressure Cunningham with their front four and run the football effectively, they have a chance to steal this one, but Minnesota has too many offensive weapons and too much pride to continue their slide. Look for the Vikings to turn their season around with a very physical low-scoring win at home.

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