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Wednesday, October 6 War Room: Buccaneers at Packers The War Room Tampa Bay offense vs. Green Bay defense
Aside from Dilfer's ability, the biggest reason for their struggles has been pass protection. The Bucs started Jerry Wunsch in place of Jason Odom last week at right tackle and that experiment backfired, as Minnesota got constant frontside pressure on Dilfer. LOT Paul Gruber was equally as poor on the left side, getting beat repeatedly by John Randle. This could be another long afternoon for the Bucs, as Green Bay's outside pass rush tandem of Keith McKenzie and Vonnie Holliday create big matchup problems with their quickness. Defensive coordinator Emmit Thomas' secondary is getting solid play from its newcomers, especially LDC Mike McKenzie, but the key coverage player this week will be SS Leroy Butler, who will draw TE Dave Moore. Dilfer is starting to relax in the pocket and take what defenses give him, a fact that is reflected in Moore's increased reception totals (8 rec., 108 yds., 2 TD). Tampa is starting to work the middle of the field more than they have in the past, which is smart with a good zone tight end like Moore. If Moore demands attention over the middle, expect Dilfer to take a couple of shots downfield, as he did last week against the Vikings. The Bucs had a hard time running the ball last Sunday when they lost H-back Patrick Hape (neck strain), and he has already been listed as inactive for Sunday's contest. With Hape out, the Bucs will be forced to go with their base formation with Dunn and Alstott for the majority of the afternoon, which significantly streamlines the Bucs playbook. The Bucs are running the ball a league-high 54.6 percent of their downs, but they have been more successful when Alstott sees the majority of his carries at halfback and Dunn works the short passing game. The Bucs will be going up against a re-energized Packers run defense, led by RDT Gilbert Brown. Aside from a poor performance in Week 1 by the Raiders, the Packers are giving up only 2.6 yards per carry on the ground this season. Brown's surprising play has been the key because he is beginning to draw the double teams that he frequently saw a couple of years ago. Instead of simply just taking up space, as he did for the better part of the past two seasons, Brown is collapsing the pocket and shedding blockers at the point of attack in order to make tackles. The bye week allowed LDT Santana Dotson and OLB Brian Williams to recover from injuries, which will only help strengthen the run defense. Green Bay offense vs. Tampa Bay defense
The Bucs' front four is banged up as well and could play for the second straight week without All-Pro Warren Sapp. In addition to Sapp, injuries to top reserves Steve White and Anthony McFarland are having a two-fold effect on the defense. First, the injuries increase the number of snaps that each regular takes per game and is also is forcing players like Tyoka Jackson and Marcus Jones to play out of position. The state of Tampa's defensive line could really hurt them in the fourth quarter-the time when Levens does the bulk of his damage. QB Brett Favre has bailed them out in both wins this season but the team realizes his late-game heroics must end. Offensive Coordinator Sherm Lewis has spent the better part of the past two weeks figuring out ways to get WR Antonio Freeman the ball. With premier players like Robert Brooks (retired) and Mark Chmura (injured reserve) out of the lineup, Freeman is seeing increased double teams that prevent him from making the big plays that he became accustomed to. One thing that will help will be the infusion of Tyrone Davis into the passing game. Green Bay didn't get a single reception from either of their tight ends against the Vikings and Davis' underneath work against the Bucs' predominant cover-two defense would pull the safeties up in coverage. The Bucs' secondary gave up a few big plays early to Randy Moss but they clamped down for the final three quarters and held up well despite a non-existent pass rush. The matchup to watch will be Freeman working against LDC Donnie Abraham. Abraham, who had one interception and two passes defensed in the endzone last week, played well against Freeman in their only meeting a year ago, holding Freeman to 83 yards on five receptions. Freeman missed the second meeting between these teams last year with a fractured jaw. Special teams
Levens has been the Packers workhorse the first three games and he will continue to fill that role. Nickerson will have help against the run but he will be on his own in coverage. Keep in mind, Levens had nine receptions in their Week 3 win over the Vikings.
Brown is coming off his best game since the Packers' '96 Super Bowl season in the team's win over Minnesota. Diaz will get help from OC Tony Mayberry all afternoon and needs to redeem himself after a mistake-filled performance last Sunday.
Dilfer has struggled badly throughout his career against Green Bay but he's coming off a very good performance (25-39, 301 yds., 2 TD, 1 INT) against the Vikings. Defensive coordinator Emmitt Thomas spent the better part of the past two weeks devising ways to get his most versatile athlete. Tampa Bay will win if...
Green Bay will win if...
The War Room edge
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