COMMUNITY
 Letters to Editor
Send a letter
BACKSTAGE
 The Magazine
ESPN Radio


 ALSO SEE
War Room: Week 5 previews



 SPORTS
NBA

NHL

M COLLEGE BB

W COLLEGE BB

GOLF

BASEBALL

NFL

COLLEGE FB

SOCCER

EXTREME SPORTS


Wednesday, October 6
War Room: Buccaneers at Packers


Tampa Bay offense vs. Green Bay defense
BUCS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 11
Pass 27
Tot. Yds. 25
Scoring 25
Int's allowed 29
Sacks allowed 25
   
PACKERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 20
vs. Pass 17
Total yds. allowed 18
Ints. 12
Sacks 12
Turnover differential -2
The continued progress of QB Trent Dilfer is a great sign for the Bucs, but he will need another effort like he put in last December in the team's 24-22 victory over the Packers. In that game, Dilfer completed only 9-of-22 passes but two of the completions were 64 and 62 yard touchdowns passes. The biggest strides Dilfer has made since his embarrassing opener are in terms of decision making. Dilfer is avoiding sacks and interceptions by smartly throwing the ball away. In Dilfer's tenure with the team, the Bucs have never had much success through the air against Green Bay.

Aside from Dilfer's ability, the biggest reason for their struggles has been pass protection. The Bucs started Jerry Wunsch in place of Jason Odom last week at right tackle and that experiment backfired, as Minnesota got constant frontside pressure on Dilfer. LOT Paul Gruber was equally as poor on the left side, getting beat repeatedly by John Randle. This could be another long afternoon for the Bucs, as Green Bay's outside pass rush tandem of Keith McKenzie and Vonnie Holliday create big matchup problems with their quickness.

Defensive coordinator Emmit Thomas' secondary is getting solid play from its newcomers, especially LDC Mike McKenzie, but the key coverage player this week will be SS Leroy Butler, who will draw TE Dave Moore. Dilfer is starting to relax in the pocket and take what defenses give him, a fact that is reflected in Moore's increased reception totals (8 rec., 108 yds., 2 TD). Tampa is starting to work the middle of the field more than they have in the past, which is smart with a good zone tight end like Moore. If Moore demands attention over the middle, expect Dilfer to take a couple of shots downfield, as he did last week against the Vikings.

The Bucs had a hard time running the ball last Sunday when they lost H-back Patrick Hape (neck strain), and he has already been listed as inactive for Sunday's contest. With Hape out, the Bucs will be forced to go with their base formation with Dunn and Alstott for the majority of the afternoon, which significantly streamlines the Bucs playbook. The Bucs are running the ball a league-high 54.6 percent of their downs, but they have been more successful when Alstott sees the majority of his carries at halfback and Dunn works the short passing game. The Bucs will be going up against a re-energized Packers run defense, led by RDT Gilbert Brown. Aside from a poor performance in Week 1 by the Raiders, the Packers are giving up only 2.6 yards per carry on the ground this season. Brown's surprising play has been the key because he is beginning to draw the double teams that he frequently saw a couple of years ago. Instead of simply just taking up space, as he did for the better part of the past two seasons, Brown is collapsing the pocket and shedding blockers at the point of attack in order to make tackles. The bye week allowed LDT Santana Dotson and OLB Brian Williams to recover from injuries, which will only help strengthen the run defense.

Green Bay offense vs. Tampa Bay defense
PACKERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 16
Pass 2
Tot. Yds. 2
Scoring 13
Int's allowed 14
Sacks allowed 8
   
BUCS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 1
vs. Pass 3
Total yds. allowed 1
Ints. 24
Sacks 5
Turnover differential -10
It will be a war to attrition in the trenches this week if the Packers intend on running the football against a Bucs defense that his allowing just 58.3 yards per game on the ground. Packers' RB Dorsey Levens is averaging just under 22 carries per game and his 4.3 average is excellent considering the spotty play of the offensive line. The Packers' line has been inconsistent thus far but Levens continues to get the most out of every carry. Green Bay's running game could suffer a big blow if starting ROT Earl Dotson sits out with back problems. His absence would force starting LOG Mike Wahle to right tackle and backup Joe Andruzzi into the lineup at the vacated left guard spot. Andruzzi was rotated in the past couple of weeks and should be solid but Wahle could really struggle against LDE Chidi Ahanotu, who is tied for the team lead with four sacks. If Wahle struggles, it will force the Packers to use TEs Jeff Thomason and Tyrone Davis as blockers, which reduces their options in the passing game.

The Bucs' front four is banged up as well and could play for the second straight week without All-Pro Warren Sapp. In addition to Sapp, injuries to top reserves Steve White and Anthony McFarland are having a two-fold effect on the defense. First, the injuries increase the number of snaps that each regular takes per game and is also is forcing players like Tyoka Jackson and Marcus Jones to play out of position. The state of Tampa's defensive line could really hurt them in the fourth quarter-the time when Levens does the bulk of his damage.

QB Brett Favre has bailed them out in both wins this season but the team realizes his late-game heroics must end. Offensive Coordinator Sherm Lewis has spent the better part of the past two weeks figuring out ways to get WR Antonio Freeman the ball. With premier players like Robert Brooks (retired) and Mark Chmura (injured reserve) out of the lineup, Freeman is seeing increased double teams that prevent him from making the big plays that he became accustomed to. One thing that will help will be the infusion of Tyrone Davis into the passing game. Green Bay didn't get a single reception from either of their tight ends against the Vikings and Davis' underneath work against the Bucs' predominant cover-two defense would pull the safeties up in coverage. The Bucs' secondary gave up a few big plays early to Randy Moss but they clamped down for the final three quarters and held up well despite a non-existent pass rush.

The matchup to watch will be Freeman working against LDC Donnie Abraham. Abraham, who had one interception and two passes defensed in the endzone last week, played well against Freeman in their only meeting a year ago, holding Freeman to 83 yards on five receptions. Freeman missed the second meeting between these teams last year with a fractured jaw.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category TB GB
Punt return avg. 15 12
Kickoff return avg. 12 28
Opp. punt return avg. 8 15
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 1 30
Time of possession 4 14
The Packers' coverage teams have been lousy thus far but the bye week should have given them ample time to fix things. Green Bay has been solid on special teams the past few years but their lack of veteran depth is killing them. Not only are these units unprepared, they also have players out of position. Green Bay P Louis Aguiar might actually be a sufficient answer to the team's punting woes. Aguiar, who was much better two weeks ago than he was in his first game against Detroit, must remain accurate with his directional punting in order to be effective. Tampa PR Jacquez Green continues to struggle but Yo Murphy could be the solution on kickoffs, where he had two returns for 58 yards last week. A week after being named NFC Special Teams Player of the Week, rookie cover demon John McLaughlin blocked a Viking field goal attempt in the fourth quarter to give the team a chance down the stretch. McLaughlin and Co. could have with an unimpeded path to Packers RS Desmond Howard.

Key matchups
  • Tampa MLB Hardy Nickerson vs. Green Bay RB Dorsey Levens...
    Levens has been the Packers workhorse the first three games and he will continue to fill that role. Nickerson will have help against the run but he will be on his own in coverage. Keep in mind, Levens had nine receptions in their Week 3 win over the Vikings.

  • Green Bay RDT Gilbert Brown vs. Tampa LOG Jorge Diaz...
    Brown is coming off his best game since the Packers' '96 Super Bowl season in the team's win over Minnesota. Diaz will get help from OC Tony Mayberry all afternoon and needs to redeem himself after a mistake-filled performance last Sunday.

  • Tampa QB Trent Dilfer vs. Green Bay OLB Brian Williams...
    Dilfer has struggled badly throughout his career against Green Bay but he's coming off a very good performance (25-39, 301 yds., 2 TD, 1 INT) against the Vikings. Defensive coordinator Emmitt Thomas spent the better part of the past two weeks devising ways to get his most versatile athlete.

    Tampa Bay will win if...
  • They get positive yardage on ground on first and second down and don't force Dilfer into too many third-and-long situations. Dilfer will struggle on third down because Defensive coordinator Emmit Thomas loves to rush up to six people in passing situations.

  • The defensive front four can pressure Favre without committing men to the blitz. Favre is one of the rare QBs that can take a pounding all afternoon and consistently beat the blitz.

  • They don't turn the ball over and give the Packers offense a short field from which to operate. Tampa's defense is strong but the Packers have too many weapons to just give them field position.

    Green Bay will win if...

  • They can shut down RBs Alstott and Dunn and make the Bucs beat them through the air. The Packers have a lot of confidence in their young secondary and the Bucs' receivers are not getting good separation.

  • The offensive line and running backs can neutralize the Bucs' pass rush. Favre has withstood a tremendous beating thus far this season but he can't continue being knocked around with such regularity.

  • They get better overall production from their special teams. RS Desmond Howard has had very little room to make anything happen and their suspect cover schemes could be exposed by Jacquez Green.

    The War Room edge
    After falling behind to Vikings in the first quarter, the Bucs rallied and almost pulled out a win in the Metrodome. The Packers' bye week was key because it allowed injured starters LDT Santana Dotson and ROT Earl Dotson to heal. The Bucs have played the Packers tough in Lambeau over the years but haven't quite pulled one out. Tampa's defense will make this one interesting but look for Antonio Freeman to rebound after a couple of subpar performances and lift the Packers to another victory in Lambeau.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


  •   ESPN INSIDER | COMMUNITY | BACKSTAGE
    Copyright 1995-99 ESPN/Starwave Partners d/b/a ESPN Internet Ventures. All rights reserved. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form. ESPN.com Privacy Policy (Updated 12/21/98). Use of this site signifies your agreement to the Terms of Service (Updated 01/12/98).