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Wednesday, October 20 War Room: Chiefs at Ravens The War Room Kansas City offense vs. Baltimore defense
Baltimore has been stout all season against the run, ranking seventh in the league and only allowing 83.2 yards per game. As long as this unit stays healthy, it can only get better. The front four has been dominant, plugging holes and shooting gaps. The emergence of Larry Webster has been a major difference up front because of his ability to occupy the offensive line and allow the linebacking corps to make plays. Middle linebacker Ray Lewis is having perhaps the best season of his career. He already has minus-16 yards in tackles and has cleaned up just about everything between the tackles. Peter Boulware hasn't been real productive as far as tackles are concerned, but he's drawing double teams to allow for Jamie Sharper and Lewis to make more plays against the run. The key on Sunday against the run will be the play of strong safety Kim Herring. Herring has only 16 tackles in a system that is designed for the strong safety to make plays. Herring will be playing closer to the line of scrimmage and will be playing more as a 4-4 linebacker who will be counted on to shut down the cutback lanes. The Chiefs, as always, will look to take advantage of a strong run game in order to run play-action and dictate the matchups they are looking for. Quarterback Elvis Grbac has been effective when the team is able to bootleg off the play fake, giving Grbac an easier one-side read with favorable man-to-man matchups on receivers Derrick Alexander and Andre Rison. The Ravens cornerbacks have had a terrible time in coverage, so it has forced defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis to run more cover-two looks, where Duane Starks and DeRon Jenkins are able to play more physical off the line of scrimmage without worrying about getting beat deep because they have help from weak safety Rod Woodson on an individual basis. The key for the Chiefs will be to force Woodson to take some false steps on the play fake and take advantage of the man-to-man coverage on the receivers.
Baltimore offense vs. Kansas City defense
The blocking scheme is devised to run a lot of counters and traps where the hole opens up backside, and Evans is responsible for kicking out the linebacker that is left unguarded. The reason the Ravens have been so successful is that Evans has been nearly flawless as an isolation blocker and Errict Rhett has done an excellent job of finding the cutback lane and hitting the hole hard. Defenses are now clogging the middle of the line against Rhett, so the return of speedy Priest Holmes is a welcomed one. Holmes will now add a change up to Rhett's bruising style, and will be able to take advantage of defenses stacking the middle of the field. Against the Chiefs, Holmes is going to have to play a crucial role running the ball outside and stretching the run defense horizontally. Thanks to a healthy Dan Williams and Chester McGlockton, the Chiefs' front four have helped the team hold opponents to a little more than 77 yards per game on the ground. The defensive tackles are doing a remarkable job of clogging the middle and forcing teams to bounce the ball outside, where defensive end Eric Hicks and Leslie O' Neal have been keeping containment. The Linebackers are making most of the tackles in the cutback holes because runners are finding that the intended hole has been filled. The key to the running game will be the matchup between Evans and the Chiefs linebacking corps. If the Chiefs linebackers are able to shed the isolation block or fight through it as they have done most of the season, the Ravens will be forced to throw the ball to win, something they do not want to be relegated to do. Kansas City has a major advantage in the passing game for two reasons. First, the Chiefs have one of the top cover corner trios in the league, and match up extremely well with the Ravens receiving corps. The ever-improving play of nickel corner Carlton Gray gives the Chiefs depth at the position and allows the linebacking corps to continue to rush the passer, instead of giving help in the short zone on third-down situations. The other reason for optimism is the fact that the Chiefs have established a very effective blitz package. Middle linebacker Marvcus Patton is protected well from his big defensive tackles and has shown excellent instincts when finding a blitz lane to attack. Outside linebacker Derrick Thomas seems to be back to his old self as a pass rusher, and he has been extremely effective coming off the edge and forcing the quarterback to step up in the pocket. The Ravens offensive line has been very consistent all year, but has been hit hard by injury. They have guys playing out of position and reserves filling in. Reserve right tackle Spencer Folua will be a targeted man in the pass rush because of his inexperience and history of trouble against the blitz. The Cheifs are going to be able to apply enough pressure on the Ravens line and should capitalize on miscommunication and broken assignments because of it.
Special teams
Ravens kicker Matt Stover is 9-for-12 on field-goal attempts this season, but his short kickoffs are a concern and are costing the defense valuable starting room. Punter Kyle Richardson had a one-week slump, but looks to have regained his form and is now averaging 42.5-yards per punt. It is obvious that handling punt returns on top of the No. 1 receiving duty is wearing Jermaine Lewis thin as he is averaging just 8.5 yards per return.
Key matchups Chiefs defensive tackles Chester McGlockton and Dan Williams do an excellent job of clogging up the middle and protecting Patton. Patton is given many clear lanes to the ball carrier and makes a lot of plays when he hits the opening hole. Rhett is going to have a lot of "one-man-to-beat" situations and is going to have to break some tackles in the hole in order get into the secondary.
Ismail has great deep speed and will be able to stretch the defense vertically for the Ravens. Dishman has lost a couple of steps, but can still cover the faster players in the league because he is crafty and gets a good jump on routes. If Dishman can cover Ismail in the deep-third without any help, the safeties will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage and help in run support.
Gonzalez has the speed and athleticism to pose a threat for opposing defenses down the seam. Gonzalez does an excellent job getting open on play-action passes because of his good bump-and-release technique. Herring needs to pick Gonzalez up off the line of scrimmage and cannot afford to take false steps on play-action because Gonzalez will get behind him in coverage.
Kansas City will win if...
Baltimore will win if...
The War Room edge
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