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Wednesday, October 20
War Room: Bills at Seahawks


Buffalo offense vs. Seattle defense
BILLS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 7
Pass 18
Tot. Yds. 13
Scoring 17
Int's allowed 6
Sacks allowed 10
   
SEAHAWKS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 22
vs. Pass 22
Total yds. allowed 22
No. of INTs 11
No. of Sacks 14
Turnover differential -3
Buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Pendry abandoned the run far too early last week, considering the fact that RB Antowain Smith ripped off a 52-yard touchdown on his second carry of the day. Buffalo running backs carried the ball a total of ten times against the Raiders but Pendry will have no choice but to stick to the ground this week because of WR Eric Moulds' absence. If Buffalo commits to running the ball they should have success against a surprisingly soft Seahawks defense that is giving up 112.4 yards per game (4.1 avg.).

Seattle played the run well last week, holding San Diego's Natrone Means to just 35 yards on 17 carries. The Bills cannot let Seattle's success last week deter them from pounding the football with Smith. Means was playing on two tender ankles and the Chargers don't have a punishing lead blocker like Sam Gash. Seattle's linebacker trio combined for just 16 tackles last week but that total should have been much higher if it weren't for such shoddy tackling. Defensive coordinator Jim Lind's defense will be in for a long afternoon if they try to arm-tackle Smith.

QB Doug Flutie endured his worst game of the season last week (19-41, 210, 1 TD, 3 INT) but give the Raiders credit for an outstanding defensive effort. Flutie's problems were a result of creative game-planning and solid execution by Oakland's defense. The biggest reason for the Bills' struggles in the passing game was the tight man coverage on the perimeter, which forced Flutie to thread the ball to receivers who had little or no separation from the DC.

Seattle DCs Willie Williams and Shawn Springs should rise to the occasion this week without playmaker Moulds in the lineup. Buffalo will find it difficult to implement their normal game plan without Moulds because rookie Peerless Price simply doesn't have the game experience to immediately be a factor in the deep passing game. Price has struggled getting a clean release off the line of scrimmage and will be jammed by Springs on the majority of passing downs. In fact, Price's inability to get open resulted in interceptions the only two times Flutie threw his way last week.

The offensive line did a great job in pass protection last week but the loss of All-Pro LOG Rueben Brown hurts this unit. Don't be shocked if backup Jamie Nails holds his own against RDT Cortez Kennedy. Nails matches up well size-wise with Kennedy and he excels in short set pass protection against bull rushers like Kennedy.

Seattle offense vs. Buffalo defense
SEAHAWKS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 29
Pass 16
Tot. Yds. 26
Scoring 19
Int's allowed 2
Sacks allowed 18
   
BILLS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 9
vs. Pass 6
Total yds. allowed 5
No. of INTs 5
No. of Sacks 10
Turnover differential -4
Seattle coach Mike Holmgren, who is 2-6 lifetime following bye weeks, couldn't find an answer last week for San Diego's aggressive defense. The Seahawks must rebound on Sunday and Holmgren must address the team's poor play from its offensive line. While the Chargers are stingy against he run, Seattle's problems on the ground have been a season-long concern. Last week, ROG Brian Habib started and played courageously after having his knee scoped just two weeks earlier but his inspiration was not enough. Too much has been made of the struggles at right tackle, where Grant Williams and Todd Weiner are clearly in over their heads.

Lost in the team's 71.4 per game rushing average (2.7 per carry) is the lackluster play of OC Kevin Glover and LOG Pete Kendall. These are two players that the team counted on prior to the season that just aren't getting it done. RB Rickey Watters is running hard but opposing LBs are having success shooting gaps into the backfield before Watters has a chance to make them miss.

Buffalo entered last week's loss to Oakland with the No. 1 run defense in the league but they were subsequently steamrolled by Tyrone Wheatley and Co. for 195 yards. Buffalo will sorely miss the play of run-specialist John Holecek, who was lost early in the first quarter last week. Joe Cummings doesn't have the same instincts as Holecek nor does he share the same chemistry with fellow ILB Sam Cowert. Look for the Seahawks to pound the ball inside early to test the newcomer. Cummings will be slower to the hole than Holecek, which should give lead blocker FB Reggie Brown a good chance to size him up.

QB Jon Kitna didn't have a horrible game last week (17-29, 151 yds., 1 TD, 1 INT) but he didn't go downfield with enough frequency. For the first time all season, Seattle's passing game clearly missed the deep speed of WR Joey Galloway. Help could return in the form of Charles Jordan this week, who has been sidelined since the opener with a hamstring injury. While Jordan cannot compare to Galloway, he will at least give the Seahawks a receiver that can threaten the deep third of the field.

A big key for Buffalo on Sunday will be the play of their safeties. Both FS Kurt Schultz and SS Henry Jones had crucial pass interference calls last week because they were caught out of position. Buffalo doesn't have much experience defending the West Coast system and it is imperative this duo play smarter this week.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category BUF SEA
Punt return avg. 7 1
Kickoff return avg. 22 15
Opp. punt return avg. 7 25
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 19 5
Time of possession 16 26
Special teams didn't necessarily cost the Seahawks a win last week but it contributed greatly. PK Todd Peterson's missed 48-yard field goal hurt and, aside from a 42-yard kickoff return by Ahman Green, the return units also failed. Seattle's rookie PR Charlie Rogers is fighting through some consistency problems but his balance and ability to set up blockers makes him a threat every time he fields the ball. The Bills' sixth ranked punt coverage unit (6.3 yds. allowed per return) has been solid but Green could have a big day on kickoffs. Buffalo RS Kevin Williams could be slowed down by the fact that he will see increased time in three-receiver sets on offense.

Key matchups
  • Seattle RB Ricky Watters vs. Buffalo LBs
    Watters needs to get the job done and keep Flutie off the field. The rest of this unit, including substitute Joe Cummings, must make up for the loss of John Holecek.

  • Buffalo WRs Price & Reed vs. Seattle secondary
    The Seahawks' DB's did not play well last week against the Chargers and continue to give up too many big plays. Price and Reed, who were awful last week, must compensate for the loss of Moulds.

  • Seattle QB Jon Kitna vs. Buffalo front four
    Kitna was sacked only three times last week but he was hurried into many poor throws. Bruce Smith & Co. cannot afford to let Kitna get into a rhythm early.

    Buffalo will win if...
  • They commit themselves to running the football. The Bills were extremely effective on the ground last week and they'll need another strong outing without a big-play dimension in the passing game.

  • NT Ted Washington dominates. The loss of starting MLB John Holecek is a huge blow to the Bills' run defense, which means Washington must play big and demand double teams from OG's Kendall and Habib.

  • They can roll Flutie and give him better throwing lanes. Seattle always gets a strong upfield rush from DE's Sinclair and Daniels so it might be a case where Flutie must be patient while his OT's ride defenders out of the play.

    Seattle will win if...

  • They keep QB Flutie in the pocket and don't let him beat them with his feet. Oakland did an outstanding job of this last week and it resulted in three Flutie interceptions.

  • Their corners, without Moulds to contend with, can hold up in man coverage. Defensive Coordinator Jim Lind's defense is at its best when the front seven is freed up to rush the passer.

  • They get better production from the run game. The Seahawks gained just 61 yards on 27 carries last week, which allowed the Chargers to sit back in coverage and overplay the pass.

    The War Room edge
    The loss of Moulds really hurts the Bills because he took a lot of pressure off the running game and opened up things for Riemersma and Reed underneath. The Bills desperately need big games from WR's Peerless Price and Kevin Williams in order to stay with the Seahawks on the road. Mike Holmgren's club played well enough to win last week at San Diego but they couldn't capitalize on turnovers. Jon Kitna, who always seems to play better at home, will get the job done on Sunday.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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