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Wednesday, October 20 War Room: Bears at Buccaneers The War Room Chicago offense vs. Tampa Bay defense
The Eagles sacked McNown four times last week because he held the ball too long but he did manage to avoid trouble and rush four times for 23 yards. Although it's very difficult for a rookie signal-caller to do, McNown must avoid locking onto his receivers, as he did last week against Philadelphia. Without Curtis Conway (ankle sprain) in the lineup, McNown zeroed in on WRs Bobby Engram and Marcus Robinson, forcing the ball into tight coverage on many occasions. The Bucs' front four is getting great pressure up front but the Bucs' secondary is in shambles. In their loss two weeks ago against the Packers, it didn't matter whether the Bucs played man or zone coverage. Either way, they had a hard time stopping Green Bay's passing game. Tampa simply isn't playing aggressive enough in coverage and they aren't making plays on the football. In their defense, too much is being made of dropped interceptions by members of the secondary. It's hard to fault a defensive back for not coming down with one of Brett Favre's bullets when his own receivers have trouble catching them. Keeping with the league-wide defensive philosophy of picking on a marked man, look for the Bears to target RDC Ronde Barber on Sunday. Though he probably won't get the hook yet, Barber is close to losing his job to rookie nickel back Dexter Jackson, who brings better matchup size to the secondary. Barber made plays late last season because he was always around the football but his zone has been much too soft the past few games. Look for the Bears to come out and try to establish the run early against a tough Tampa run defense that is giving up just over 66 yards per game. Though it will be tough, the Bears need to stick with the run game in order to prevent the Bucs from teeing off on McNown. Chicago needs to start varying their playbook, passing more on first down and running more draws in passing situations. RBs Curtis Enis and Glyn Milburn can have success against the Bucs' 1-gap penetrating defense if they keep the defense guessing. The Bears' OL is playing a very physical brand of ball and Enis must run with patience and not look for the big play on every carry. If the Bears can keep penetration to a minimum it will allow Enis to read the flow of the Bucs' aggressive LB corps, which is exactly what Dorsey Levens did two weeks ago in his 99-yard outing. Tampa Bay offense vs. Chicago defense
Offensive coordinator Mike Shula has been spreading the field with multiple-receiver sets to work the short passing game. Chicago was victimized last week by Philadelphia's suspect passing game, but aside from a 57-yard completion to Deitrich Jells, they kept plays in front of them and tackled well. The Bucs have settled too much for the short timing routes and must start taking some shots deep to Jacquez Green and Reidel Anthony. The Bucs' longest completion of the year to an active player (Emmanuel's long was 39 yards) is just 26 yards, which means Chicago will be able to walk SS Tony Parrish up to the line of scrimmage without fearing their lack of deep help. A matchup to look for is RB Warrick Dunn working on the Bears' MLB. Starter Sean Harris has missed parts of the last two games due to an ankle injury and he has been replaced with rookie Khari Samuel. Samuel, who had seven tackles in second half last week, has reacted well in the middle, but he's never faced a player like Dunn. Behind the strong running of FB Mike Alstott, the Bucs are among the top ground teams in the league with a 131 yards per game average. Tampa's success in the run game is even more impressive considering opponents' blatant disregard for the deep passing game. The Bucs are getting solid play up front but it has been Alstott's ability to wear teams down late in games that could be the difference on Sunday. Through the first five games of the season, Alstott is averaging 7.6 yards per carry in the fourth quarter -- a big discrepancy from his overall average of 4.7 per carry. The Bears are surrendering a hefty 4.5 yards per carry on the ground and their banged up linebacking unit has Coach Dick Jauron concerned. Special teams
The key to the Bears' defense is the ability of the front four to create pressure. In last week's loss to Philadelphia, Flanigan recorded the team's only sack, which explains Doug Pederson's big day. Mayberry, a hog-type linemen, hasn't fared too well in the past against the quicker Flanigan.
Ultimately, the key to this matchup will be Abraham's ability to close on the ball quickly and make Conway pay for catching the football. Although he's not the Bucs' biggest corner, Abraham is physical enough to deter Conway, who's playing at less than full strength, from running crisp routes.
One of offensive coordinator Mike Shula's favorite plays is the short screen to Dunn. The Bucs will look to isolate Dunn on Harris after pounding the ball Alstott. Chicago will win if...
Tampa Bay will win if...
The War Room edge
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