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Wednesday, October 20
War Room: Bears at Buccaneers


Chicago offense vs. Tampa Bay defense
BEARS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 19
Pass 9
Tot. Yds. 12
Scoring 21
Int's allowed 5
Sacks allowed 15
   
BUCCANEERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 2
vs. Pass 9
Total yds. allowed 3
No. of INTs 3
No. of Sacks 18
Turnover differential -14
The Bears are uncertain who will start at quarterback on Sunday. Shane Matthews' hamstring injury is on the mend but the team will probably hold him out for precautionary reasons and give rookie Cade McNown his second straight start. The Bears will need a mobile quarterback against the Bucs' active front four and while the coaching staff would rather start the more experienced player, McNown is the more effective scrambler.

The Eagles sacked McNown four times last week because he held the ball too long but he did manage to avoid trouble and rush four times for 23 yards. Although it's very difficult for a rookie signal-caller to do, McNown must avoid locking onto his receivers, as he did last week against Philadelphia. Without Curtis Conway (ankle sprain) in the lineup, McNown zeroed in on WRs Bobby Engram and Marcus Robinson, forcing the ball into tight coverage on many occasions.

The Bucs' front four is getting great pressure up front but the Bucs' secondary is in shambles. In their loss two weeks ago against the Packers, it didn't matter whether the Bucs played man or zone coverage. Either way, they had a hard time stopping Green Bay's passing game. Tampa simply isn't playing aggressive enough in coverage and they aren't making plays on the football. In their defense, too much is being made of dropped interceptions by members of the secondary. It's hard to fault a defensive back for not coming down with one of Brett Favre's bullets when his own receivers have trouble catching them.

Keeping with the league-wide defensive philosophy of picking on a marked man, look for the Bears to target RDC Ronde Barber on Sunday. Though he probably won't get the hook yet, Barber is close to losing his job to rookie nickel back Dexter Jackson, who brings better matchup size to the secondary. Barber made plays late last season because he was always around the football but his zone has been much too soft the past few games.

Look for the Bears to come out and try to establish the run early against a tough Tampa run defense that is giving up just over 66 yards per game. Though it will be tough, the Bears need to stick with the run game in order to prevent the Bucs from teeing off on McNown. Chicago needs to start varying their playbook, passing more on first down and running more draws in passing situations.

RBs Curtis Enis and Glyn Milburn can have success against the Bucs' 1-gap penetrating defense if they keep the defense guessing. The Bears' OL is playing a very physical brand of ball and Enis must run with patience and not look for the big play on every carry. If the Bears can keep penetration to a minimum it will allow Enis to read the flow of the Bucs' aggressive LB corps, which is exactly what Dorsey Levens did two weeks ago in his 99-yard outing.

Tampa Bay offense vs. Chicago defense
BUCCANEERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 5
Pass 29
Tot. Yds. 25
Scoring 23
Int's allowed 10
Sacks allowed 16
   
BEARS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 23
vs. Pass 27
Total yds. allowed 28
No. of INTs 4
No. of Sacks 20
Turnover differential +1
The Bucs have used the bye week to work on some problems in their passing game and, unlike in the past, QB Trent Dilfer's play was a non-issue. Dilfer has made good decisions, for the most part, all season but he needs some help from his receiving corps. Dilfer's completion rate is above 60 percent (60.9) -- where coach Dungy would like it -- for the first time in his career and that number could be significantly higher if his receivers ran crisper routes and hung onto the ball. With WR Bert Emmanuel out of the lineup, Karl Williams will play a key role on offense.

Offensive coordinator Mike Shula has been spreading the field with multiple-receiver sets to work the short passing game. Chicago was victimized last week by Philadelphia's suspect passing game, but aside from a 57-yard completion to Deitrich Jells, they kept plays in front of them and tackled well.

The Bucs have settled too much for the short timing routes and must start taking some shots deep to Jacquez Green and Reidel Anthony. The Bucs' longest completion of the year to an active player (Emmanuel's long was 39 yards) is just 26 yards, which means Chicago will be able to walk SS Tony Parrish up to the line of scrimmage without fearing their lack of deep help.

A matchup to look for is RB Warrick Dunn working on the Bears' MLB. Starter Sean Harris has missed parts of the last two games due to an ankle injury and he has been replaced with rookie Khari Samuel. Samuel, who had seven tackles in second half last week, has reacted well in the middle, but he's never faced a player like Dunn.

Behind the strong running of FB Mike Alstott, the Bucs are among the top ground teams in the league with a 131 yards per game average. Tampa's success in the run game is even more impressive considering opponents' blatant disregard for the deep passing game. The Bucs are getting solid play up front but it has been Alstott's ability to wear teams down late in games that could be the difference on Sunday.

Through the first five games of the season, Alstott is averaging 7.6 yards per carry in the fourth quarter -- a big discrepancy from his overall average of 4.7 per carry. The Bears are surrendering a hefty 4.5 yards per carry on the ground and their banged up linebacking unit has Coach Dick Jauron concerned.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category CHI TB
Punt return avg. 10 8
Kickoff return avg. 4 16
Opp. punt return avg. 16 6
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 9 1
Time of possession 11 6
The Bears have finally settled their inconsistent kicking problem by signing veteran Chris Boniol. Boniol connected on 3-of-4 attempts last week but his miss was from only 32 yards out. By signing Boniol the Bears are basically conceding everything from beyond 50 yards. On the other side, Tampa rookie Martin Gramatica has yet to miss and the only question regarding his ability is the ability to kick in pressure situations at the pro level. Tampa's return teams have struggled all season but reserve WR Yo Murphy could provide a spark. It will be interesting to see if Tampa's cover teams, both of which are ranked in the top six in the league, can handle Chicago's Glyn Milburn. Milburn's 26.8 kickoff return average places him fourth in the league.

Key matchups
  • Chicago LDT Jim Flanigan vs. Tampa Bay LOG Frank Middleton
    The key to the Bears' defense is the ability of the front four to create pressure. In last week's loss to Philadelphia, Flanigan recorded the team's only sack, which explains Doug Pederson's big day. Mayberry, a hog-type linemen, hasn't fared too well in the past against the quicker Flanigan.

  • Chicago WR Curtis Conway vs. Tampa Bay RDC Donnie Abraham
    Ultimately, the key to this matchup will be Abraham's ability to close on the ball quickly and make Conway pay for catching the football. Although he's not the Bucs' biggest corner, Abraham is physical enough to deter Conway, who's playing at less than full strength, from running crisp routes.

  • Tampa Bay RB Warrick Dunn vs. Chicago MLB Khari Samuel
    One of offensive coordinator Mike Shula's favorite plays is the short screen to Dunn. The Bucs will look to isolate Dunn on Harris after pounding the ball Alstott.

    Chicago will win if...
  • Their DCs hold up in man coverage early, which will allow them to use SS Parrish in run support. The Bears cannot afford to let the Bucs run the football and set up their play-action passing game.

  • Their young WRs can find soft spots in Tampa's zone defense. The Bucs arguably play the tightest zone in the league and it will be tough for inexperienced players like Marcus Robinson and Alonzo Mayes to find room to operate.

  • The offensive line does a better job in pass protection. Although McNown held the ball too long at times last week, the line did give up four sacks to the Eagles. Tampa will be a much stiffer test on Sunday.

    Tampa Bay will win if...

  • They can hit a couple of big plays in the passing game. QB Dilfer has a tendency to give up plays too early but he'll have to stick in the pocket and test a Bears secondary that has surrendered some big plays this season.

  • They overcome the emotional letdown of losing at Green Bay. With the rest of the division struggling the Bucs cannot dwell on the heart-breaking loss. Dungy must guard his troops from coming out flat after the bye.

  • They continue to get solid pass coverage from their LB's. Shelton Quarles has been outstanding on the tight end this season but this group will need to keep an eye on RB Curtis Enis on Sunday. Enis was shutout of the passing game last week but the Bucs have had some trouble with RBs.

    The War Room edge
    The Bears have played inconsistently all season so it's difficult to predict which team will show up. Will it be the team that went into Minnesota and stole a win or the one that flopped last week against Philly? The Bucs have had two weeks to recover from their loss at Green Bay and Dungy will have them ready. Look for the Bucs to win big.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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