Wednesday, October 20
![](/img/insider/blueline.gif) The War Room
Cincinnati offense vs. Indianapolis defense
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BENGALS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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6
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Pass
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21
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Tot. Yds.
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17
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Scoring
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29
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Int's allowed
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7
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Sacks allowed
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18
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COLTS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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15
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vs. Pass
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28
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Total yds. allowed
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24
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No. of INTs
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5
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No. of Sacks
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10
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Turnover differential
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-10
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Corey Dillon leads the NFL in rushing with 501 yards, but the offensive line is still having major communication problems and teams are now determined to pack it in on the Bengals. With rookie Akili Smith behind center, Cincinnati will be sure to see a lot of eight man fronts with blitzing linebackers and safeties coming from all angles. Smith is just getting the usual rookie treatment until he proves himself capable of handling the pressure by beating the blitz and taking advantage of man-to-man matchups versus his receivers. The individual that will be most effected by this defensive look is Dillon, who is only averaging 17 carries per game because teams have been packing it in against the Bengals.
The Colts had a tough time shutting down the run last week, as Curtis Martin ran for 128 yards on 23 carries. The Jets run a very simple, yet physical and efficient, blocking scheme, similar to the one the Bengals are accustomed to using. This does not bode well for the Colts, considering the way they were manhandled last week. Still, the Colts will get excellent support up front from a linebacking corps that will be walking up all afternoon and occasional help from the safeties in certain blitz packages.
The key to this contest is Akili Smith's ability to handle the pass rush. Indianapolis gets excellent upfield pursuit from its defensive ends, Chad Bratzke and Shawn King, and, with the emergence of WLB Mike Peterson, the Bengals are going to struggle to protect Smith. The brunt of the pressure is going to come from Smith's backside, where Peterson and Bratzke work the left side of the offensive line. Here's how the Colts will look to attack Smith: First, MLB Mike Barber will walk up to the line of scrimmage and make sure to occupy OC Rick Braham so that the center can't pull backside to help with the blitz. Next, Bratzke and Peterson will line up side-to-side and attack OT Rod Jones -- one wide and the other underneath. Jones will get no help from the inside, because LG Matt O'Dwyer will be held up with DT Ellis Johnson. This means that Jones will be responsible for picking up Bratzke on the inside (closest man to the quarterback) and RB Corey Dillon or FB Cliff Groce will be forced to stay in to pick up a blitzing Mike Peterson off the edge. In this scheme, the Colts have the advantage because the back is going to have a tough time picking up Peterson's outside rush, which means that Akili Smith is going to have to be weary of his backside protection all afternoon
Indianapolis offense vs. Cincinnati defense
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COLTS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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18
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Pass
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5
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Tot. Yds.
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5
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Scoring
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4
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Int's allowed
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7
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Sacks allowed
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2
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BENGALS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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16
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vs. Pass
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18
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Total yds. allowed
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15
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No. of INTs
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2
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No. of Sacks
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14
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Turnover differential
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-12
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The Colts offense is nearly impossible to shut down when it's running on all cylinders. Because of the rapid maturity of QB Peyton Manning and the early emergence of rookie RB Edgerrin James, Indianapolis has one of the most balanced attacks in the league. Due to the receivers' ability to stretch the field with three-receiver sets, James has experienced manageable running lanes and has been able to run against an honest defensive set. James, through the first five games of the season, has been able to carry the load (123 attempts) and extremely productive doing so with 468 yards, including three 100-yard games. James has shown an impressive ability to pick a hole and attack it. He runs with good leverage and his 6-foot, 216-pound frame allows him to deliver a blow and wear defenses out as the game progresses.
The Bengals face the unenviable task of protecting themselves against the pass while remaining equipped to stop Edgerrin James on the ground. Cincinnati will be forced into many base 3-4 sets, and play man/zone against the outside receivers. WR Marvin Harrison was close to a non-factor last week when double-teamed, so defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau will take a page out of Bill Belichick's (Jets' defensive coordinator) book. Rookie FS Cory hall, who has improved his diagnose-and-react time immensely over the course of the season, will cheat over to Harrison's side to give help to CB Roosevelt Blackmon in the deep-third. The Bengals are elated with the recent emergence of the 6-1 cover corner, because Blackmon finally puts some stability in the secondary. Across from Blackmon, Artrell Hawkins will matchup man-to-man on No. 2 receiver Jerome Pathon. SS Greg Meyers will then be able to lock on to TE Ken Dilger off the line of scrimmage and their outside linebackers will spy James out of the backfield. At this point, the Bengals are in good shape defensively to stop both the run and the pass, and are free to work within their blitz package.
However, when the Colts bring in No. 3 receiver Terrence Wilkins as a 3rd receiver and move to a 1-back set, the Bengals become exposed. Nickel corner Rodney Heath is a mismatch against Wilkins' speed, but will be forced into single-man coverage. The Bengals are now minus one linebacker in the nickel personnel and are spread horizontally on defense. It is at this point that Edgerrin James will get the ball and pick up his chunks of yardage. The Colts have numbers up front for its blocking scheme and James will make the Bengals pay up front for being undermanned.
Special teams
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NFL RANK
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Category
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CIN
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IND
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Punt return avg.
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18
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13
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Kickoff return avg.
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7
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9
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Opp. punt return avg.
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30
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27
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Opp. kickoff ret. avg.
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6
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16
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Time of possession
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8
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14
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PK Doug Pelfrey is off to a bit of a rough start. Pelfrey is 7-of-12 on the season, and the timing of the whole unit seems to be off. Long snapper Steve Bush is out with a sprained knee, leaving Jay Leeuwenburg to handle the duties. The Punting game also looks to be a potential for disaster with Leeuwenburg punting to Will Brice, who is known to have a slow delivery.
The Colts brought in Danny Kight to give the kickoff unit a boost and also to rest the legs of P Hunter Smith and K Mike Vanderjagt. It seems to be paying off, as Smith averaged 42.5-yards per punt with a long of 57 and landed his only real opportunity to do so inside the 20. Vanderjagt was three-for-three on the day and his leg looks strong with good mechanics.
Key matchups
Cincinnati TE Tony McGee vs. Indianapolis OLB Cornelius Bennett
This is not an ideal matchup for Bennett, but because of the talent and deep speed of WR's Darnay Scott and Carl Pickens, Indianapolis is going to have to keep their safeties deep in coverage to create more of a cover-two look, which will give corners Bennett help behind them. If Bennett is unable to cover McGee down the seams, Cincinnati should be able to dictate its matchups in the passing game.
Cincinnati RB Corey Dillon vs. Indianapolis OLB Mike Peterson
Peterson has made an immediate impact as a rush linebacker and has flashed some very formidable skills as an upfield rusher. Because of Chad Bratzke's ability to rush the passer as well, Cincinnati will be forced to keep RB Corey Dillon in to protect QB Akili Smith on all passing plays that Dillon is not involved in. Dillon is a marginal blocker at best, and has been beaten regularly by rush linebackers that give one good move to the inside or outside.
Indianapolis WR corps vs. Cincinnati secondary
This matchup should dictate the outcome of the game. Because of their severe advantage in talent, size and speed and depth at the position, Indianapolis' receiving corps should be able to work matchups and exploit them all afternoon. The biggest concerns for the Bengals are the matchups of Rodney Heath on Jerome Pathon and nickel corner Tremain Mack on No. 3 receiver Terrence Wilkins.
Cincinnati will win if...
Their middle linebackers, Brian Simmons and Takeo Spikes, are effective attacking the interior line of the Colts via the blitz. The Colts only real breakdowns offensively have come from OGs Steve McKinney, Waverly Jackson and OC Larry Moore. These are three talented offensive lineman with great potential as a unit, but have had trouble adjusting to each other's playing style and have had some breakdowns in communication. In order to get to Peyton Manning, the pressure is going to have be up the middle, and Spikes and Simmons are going to have to find the lanes and attack them when they get the opportunity.
If the offense can simplify the scheme for rookie QB Akili Smith, giving him a lot of quick throws and short routes to work with. Smith has a quick drop and release, so by using a short passing game, the Bengals will be able to neutralize the blitz and take some of the pressure off of the rookie.
The Bengals stay conservative on offense. On top of condensing the passing game, it is imperative for Cincinnati to play ball control football against the Colts, who have averaged 26.6 points per game, and limit their mistakes to keep the Colts offense on the sideline. Being conservative includes running the football 35-40 times and using the running backs and tight end prominently in the passing game.
Indianapolis will win if...
The Colts use a lot of 3 and 4 receiver sets to exploit Cincinnati's secondary. The Colts need to force them into using nickel packages on first and second downs and by doing so should be able to dictate matchups downfield and, as a result, will open up running lanes for Edgerrin James and the run game.
They get help from safeties Chad Cota and Jason Belser in the deep third versus receivers Carl Pickens and Darnay Scott. The coverage may resemble more of a cover-two look, where the corners will press Pickens and Scott on the line of scrimmage and make sure when they release they do so inside, giving the safeties a chance to get to the sideline and cover the receivers downfield.
They get an excellent upfield rush from DE's Shawn King and Chad Bratzke. The Colts have been so effective on defense because of the edge rush ability of King and Bratzke. This upfield rush creates a lot of disruption in opponents' backfields, and should be a real disturbance for rookie quarterback Akili Smith. The defensive end tandem should be able to make an impact in Sunday's game against Willie Anderson Rod Jones, two tough offensive tackles, but slow footed and susceptible to a quick rush.
The War Room edge
If the Colts come to play on Sunday and dedicate themselves to bullying rookie quarterback Akili Smith, this contest could get ugly. The Colts have enough speed and athleticism on defense to get to Smith and punish him all afternoon. Cincinnati head coach Bruce Coslet needs to simplify the offense for Smith and not leave the rookie in the pocket to take the brunt of the punishment. The Bengals have a couple of favorable matchups at the wide receiver position, but the question is how much time will Smith have to get the ball downfield. Too many turnovers and not enough help in the secondary will be the story for the Bengals in this blowout in Indianapolis.
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