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Wednesday, October 20
War Room: Browns at Rams


Cleveland offense vs. St. Louis defense
BROWNS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 26
Pass 31
Tot. Yds. 31
Scoring 31
Int's allowed 4
Sacks allowed 25
   
RAMS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 3
vs. Pass 12
Total yds. allowed 6
No. of INTs 9
No. of Sacks 13
Turnover differential -2
It is clear that the Browns offense has found a way to move the ball by spreading the field and going to the short passing game as a low-risk approach. Tim Couch is used to running a wide-open offense because of his days at Kentucky, and is most effective as a passer when he can throw a lot of short, timing routes to his receivers. Couch has a very catchable ball and a great knack for hitting the short crossing and flat route receivers in stride.

St. Louis' challenge is to force the Cleveland passing game to become more of a pro-style, downfield attack, giving the front four time to get into their pass rush moves. The linebackers are going to be covering a lot of the flat and underneath areas in order to take away Couch's short to intermediate reads. The Rams are confident that if they force Couch into second and third reads downfield, they will disrupt the timing of the passing game and create enough time for their front four to exploit some of the Browns weaknesses on the offensive line.

Here is how the Rams are going to get to Tim Couch with a four man rush and just one linebacker coming on the blitz: Demarco Farr will shade over so that he is almost head up on OC Dave Wahlebaugh, assuring that RG Scott Rehberg, the team's most inexperienced and most exposed offensive lineman, is left without help. On the left side of the defensive line, Kevin Carter and Ray Agnew will run a lot of stunts that will allow Carter to use his speed and strength advantage on the inside versus Rehberg. Agnew will twist to the outside, where he is not much of a pass rush threat, but the team will blitz OLB Mike Jones in the D gap, forcing OT Orlando Brown to pick up either Agnew or Jones, which means that one of the two will have a free lane into the backfield. At this point, the Browns will either be forced to keep a back in to pick up the extra man in pass protection on the right side, or the rookie quarterback will be forced to get rid of the ball -- throwing off the timing of the pattern.

The simple fact in this matchup is that the Browns are going to have to throw the ball 50-or-more times on Sunday in order to keep up with the Rams. Not only will the Browns be playing catchup football for most of the game, but their insignificant run game stands no chance against the league's third-best run defense, yielding 66.3-yards per game on the ground. The Browns' Terry Kirby is not an every down back, and though he will flash on occasion, he wears down as the game progresses, he fumbles too much and he dances in the hole instead of heading north/south. (Editor's Note: RB Karim Abdul-Jabar was sent to the Browns on Tuesday)

St. Louis offense vs. Cleveland defense
RAMS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 9
Pass 6
Tot. Yds. 2
Scoring 1
Int's allowed 3
Sacks allowed 8
   
BROWNS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 31
vs. Pass 25
Total yds. allowed 30
No. of INTS 3
No. of Sacks 13
Turnover differential -10
The story of the 1999 NFL season continues to be the St. Louis Rams, more specifically Kurt Warner and his maturity as a quarterback with such limited experience in the league. The Rams make it so hard to defense them because if you dedicate too many men to the pass rush, the receiving corps is going to burn you, and if you back off, Warner has time to wait for Eddie Kennison, Az-zahir Hakim and Torry Holt to get open on the outside, or Marshall Faulk to get open in the flats out of the backfield. What the Browns need to do defensively is take risks to try to throw off Warner's rhythm with his receivers.

Cleveland has been able to generate pressure from its UFO defense, which features seven-man fronts, all in two-point stances, giving the offense confusion at the line of scrimmage. The idea behind the UFO defense is to stand the entire defensive front up at the line and fluster the offensive line by dropping some of the personnel in coverage while the rest of the front seven rush the passer. Teams are having trouble with assignments because there is no telling which players are coming and which players are dropping off.

The problem with running this defense against the Rams is that the secondary is left unprotected and will be exploited in man-to-man coverage. The Browns will be limited to running the UFO defense only a handful of times, because the sensible base set against the Rams is to use nickel personnel. Corners Daylon McCutheon, Ryan McNeil and nickel back Raymond Jackson will play bump-and-run close to the line of scrimmage and will need excellent help from the safeties, Marques Pope and Corey Fuller, in the deep third, much like a two-deep look. The biggest mismatch will be OLB Rahim Abdullah trying to spy Marshall Faulk out of the backfield. If Abdullah gets burned, and he likely will, one of the corners will be forced to break off the receiver and cover Faulk in the flats, leaving a 5-10 yard window for Warner to hook up with his outside receiver before the safety can get to the sideline in coverage.

The one advantage to spying Faulk with an outside linebacker is that it leaves seven men in the box to defend the run. The Brown's defensive line has improved every game versus the run and clearly controlled the line of scrimmage last week against the Jaguars. The Browns' linebacking corps has also done a nice job of filling in run support and have been extremely active, flying to the ball. Nonetheless, the Browns rank 31st in the league against the run, allowing 151.8 yards per game on the ground. Marshall Faulk will make the Brown pay for concentrating on the passing game as he did last week to the Falcons when he rushed for 181 yards on 18 carries.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category CLE STL
Punt return avg. 26 2
Kickoff return avg. 26 1
Opp. punt return avg. 13 22
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 18 28
Time of possession 31 9
P Chris Gardocki has handled the punting duties well, especially considering the fact that had to punt 45 times in six games. Gardocki's average is 43.4-yards per game, but he has allowed the opponent to return the ball 32.5 percent of the time. Kickoff return man Ronnie Powell has been disappointing this season with an average of 21.9 yards per return and a long of just 38 yards, but some of the blame needs to go to the return unit as a whole because of the poor blocking and missed assignments.

Because of the offenses' superiority this season, the punter and field goal kicker have had few opportunities in the first five games. Az-zahir Hakim ranks No. 2 in the league on punt returns, averaging 15.5-yards per return with a long of 84 yards and a touchdown. Tony Horne (suspended on Wednesday) has also been an amazing boost to this unit, leading the league on kickoff returns with a 36.0 average and a long of 101 yards and two touchdowns.

Key matchups
  • Cleveland WR Kevin Johnson vs. St. Louis CB Dexter McLeon
    Johnson has established himself as Tim Couch's go-to receiver and only real threat on offense. The Rams understand that if they take Johnson out of the game, they leave Couch very little to work with in the passing game. The Rams will use McLeon to press Johnson at the line of scrimmage and take away the underneath, while safety Keith Lyle will cheat to McLeon's side and give him help if he gets caught jumping on Johnson's first move.

  • Cleveland RB Terry Kirby vs. St. Louis LDE Kevin Carter
    The Rams have been extremely successful this season when stunting their defensive ends inside and rushing the outside linebackers. The Rams are certain to stunt Carter to match him up on pass rush situations with RG Scott Rehberg, who is having a terrible time of it this season. This means that Kirby is going to have to stay in on certain passing situations to pick up either Carter on the inside stunt or OLB Mike Jones when he comes off the edge.

  • Cleveland OLB Rahim Abdullah vs. St. Louis RB Marshall Faulk
    Abdullah is the teams' top cover linebacker, but draws the unenviable task of covering Faulk, one of the league's best receiving backs. Faulk should have a big game as a receiver out of the backfield by dominating this matchup against a slower and less athletic linebacker.

    Cleveland will win if...
  • They take advantage of Tim Couch's field presence by spreading the field. The offense did more of this last week and were successful opening it up because it forces defenses to play honest and gives Couch more time in the pocket to make his reads. Couch is used to a more wide-open offense because of his college career at Kentucky where it was not uncommon for eight or nine different receivers to have a catch.

  • The offense dedicates itself to run the ball just enough to keep the Rams' defense honest. The only way the Browns are going to put points on the board offensively is to throw the ball downfield, but Cleveland needs to run the ball on unexpected downs and try to catch the Rams off balance and force them to play more base sets on defense.

  • The defense does not back off its pressure because of the Rams potent passing attack. The Browns need to continue to run the UFO defense, creating a pass rush with a front seven that will confuse the Rams' offensive line and cause some missed assignments. The tendency against such an effective passing game is to back the linebackers into coverage to protect the underneath area, but Cleveland cannot afford to allow Kurt Warner time in the pocket to make his reads.

    St. Louis will win if...

  • The Rams get good stunt and twist action from their defensive line. The Rams need to attack RG Scott Rehberg, the weak link on the Cleveland line, and force the Browns to keep a back in on passing downs to help protect QB Tim Couch.

  • The Rams continue to run a wide-open offense with three-receiver sets and use RB Marshall Faulk as the fourth receiver out of the backfield. Cleveland's secondary is depleted by injury and has had a difficult time defending against teams with versatile passing attacks. The key for St. Louis is to force the Browns to back their linebackers into coverage, giving QB Kurt Warner ample time to sit back in the pocket and make his reads.

  • The secondary can shut down Cleveland's wide receivers and force the Browns to run the football. Cleveland will try to open it up offensively for Couch with 3-and-4 receiver sets because of their inability to run the ball. The Rams can afford to use their nickel package to defend against the pass and are confident that they can shut down the run with six men in the box.

    The War Room edge
    The magical ride continues for the Rams as the Cleveland Browns head into town for what should be another lopsided victory for St. Louis. As has every other opponent, the Browns are going to have a horrible time trying to slow down the high-powered arial attack headed by QB Kurt Warner. There are too many options in the receiving game, and, with a depleted secondary, the Browns will find it particularly hard to stay within reach. The Browns have decided to open it up more offensively, playing into the strong-suit of QB Tim Couch, but the firepower on offense is not yet there to compete in a shootout.

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