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Wednesday, October 20
War Room: Broncos at Patriots


Denver offense vs. New England defense
BRONCOS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 17
Pass 13
Tot. Yds. 18
Scoring 22
Int's allowed 10
Sacks allowed 9
   
PATRIOTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 17
vs. Pass 16
Total yds. allowed 16
No. of INTs 8
No. of Sacks 20
Turnover differential -4
Ironically enough, QB Brian Griese's last two starts by default were exactly what the sophomore needed in order to grow within the system and gain the confidence of his teammates. Because he was not supposed to start in the last two contests, Griese played with a lot less pressure on his shoulders and was finally able to go out and perform the way he was originally intended.

Griese still makes some mental mistakes, but continues to cut down on them every week and has done a much better job of moving around in the pocket and knowing when to take the sack instead of throwing into coverage. Griese has also proven to defenses that he can go up top, which is forcing the safeties to back off and the linebackers to blitz with less frequency because of their responsibilities in coverage.

The Patriots, however, have been successful with their aggressive style on defense and will not change their philosophy because of one good game out of the Denver quarterback. The Patriots love having eight men close to the line of scrimmage for a couple of reasons, and they are able to because of the exceptional play from their cornerbacks, Ty Law and Steve Israel.

What defensive coordinator Steve Sidwell does is bring hard-hitting SS Lawyer Milloy up tight to generate more of a 4-4 look. Milloy becomes an extra linebacker, which allows Teddy Bruschi to move inside where he can help rookie MLB Andy Katzenmoyer against the run. Milloy has done an excellent job of stacking up around the line of scrimmage and taking away a lot of the cutback lanes where runners are now generating a lot of production. This 4-4 look also gives Sidwell an extra man to bring on the blitz in pass rush situations.

The key for the Broncos passing game will be to get the ball to TE Byron Chamberlain, forcing the Patriot linebackers into coverage. Chamberlain is not a fast tight end, like injured starter Shannon Sharpe, but he does have a knack for stretching the seam and shows excellent hands for his size. The more attention Chamberlain draws off the line of scrimmage, the less personnel New England can bring on the blitz.

Because Greise made some successful throws downfield and the Packers were forced to respect the passing game last week, Denver was finally able to open up some running lanes. Rookie Olandis Gary has taken over for the injured Terrell Davis and Derek Loville, and is taking advantage of his opportunity. Gary has run the ball hard, made some people miss and, more importantly for the Denver team, he has not fumbled. Gary is the type of runner that could have success against New England's defensive front.

The Patriots, because of their lack of depth on at defensive tackle and linebacker, have been wearing down late in games against teams that continue to run at them and are able to sustain drives and keep the defense on the field. Gary proved he can carry the load last week, running the ball 37 times for 124 yards against Green Bay. This is the type of effort that it is going to take in order to hang around in the 4th quarter at New England and have a shot of winning the game against a tired Patriot defense.

New England offense vs. Denver defense
PATRIOTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 27
Pass 1
Tot. Yds. 3
Scoring 8
Int's allowed 4
Sacks allowed 13
   
BRONCOS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 20
vs. Pass 4
Total yds. allowed 10
No. of INTs 8
No. of Sacks 19
Turnover differential -16
Defenses realize that they can send more people after QB Drew Bledsoe without getting burned by the Patriot running game, and it's working. New England has been unable to establish anything on the ground, which was the sole reason for their 31-30 loss last week to the Dolphins. New England is completely incapable of running a 4-minute drill -- when teams get the ball with the lead towards the end of the 4th quarter and run the clock out by picking up a couple of first downs on the ground.

New England still claims to be confident about the future of its running attack because of the return of Kevin Faulk to the lineup and the fact that veteran Terry Allen is getting closer to being in game shape, but the problem lies deeper than just the condition of its running backs.

The team has rotated Max Lane, Zefross Moss, Heath Irwin and Todd Rucci for the last couple of weeks without finding an effective combination. By reshuffling the line each week, offensive coordinator Ernie Zampese is not allowing one unit to gel and get accustomed to playing together, resulting in way too many miscommunication errors and breakdowns in assignment.

Heading into Week 5, the Broncos ranked 28th in the league on run defense, but have mended some of their problems up front. Trevor Pryce and Alfred Williams have been extremely active on the right side of the line -- stunting and twisting to get each other better angles, and working as a twosome to confuse the left guard/tackle chemistry. Meanwhile, rookie MLB Al Wilson and veteran OLB Glenn Cadrez have been focusing on staying home and containing the opposing running back. Expect to see the Bronco linebackers more active on Sunday, rushing the passer, and trying to get in Drew Bledsoe's face to disrupt the timing of the Patriot passing game.

In the second half of last week's game versus the Dolphins, New England finally showed the tempo on offense that they should be using throughout the season. After a stagnant first half offensively, Pete Carroll decided to turn his offense loose and run more of a two-minute drill in the middle of the game. With the talent that New England has at the receiver and tight end positions, coupled with the fact that Bledsoe is one of the top two pure passers in the league, there is no reason to put the clamps on the passing game.

The Patriots are at their best offensively when they throw the ball 45-50 times a game with 3- and 4-receiver sets; TE Ben Coates coming off the line of scrimmage to work the middle of the field and one of its athletic backs out of the backfield working the flat area.

The Broncos are playing more aggressive against the pass and will do so on Sunday until Bledsoe proves he can consistently take advantage of the one-on-one matchups with pressure in his face. Defensive coordinator Greg Robinson is playing more single-man coverage on the outside receivers, allowing his linebackers and even SS Tyrone Braxton to concentrate on the blitz on passing downs. CB's Ray Crockett and Dale Carter have responded brilliantly in the last two games alone on an island, but will need some help in the deep third this week from FS Eric Brown against WR Terry Glenn.

The Broncos will match Carter up with Glenn and look to make this a physical matchup underneath, taking away the quick slant and out routes. Brown will cheat to the right side and give Carter help in the deep third if Glenn breaks free off the line. The key matchup in the equation will be front side, where Shawn Jefferson will have a honest man-to-man matchup against Crockett all afternoon.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category DEN NE
Punt return avg. 31 25
Kickoff return avg. 3 17
Opp. punt return avg. 28 24
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 12 20
Time of possession 18 25
K Jason Elam has been off to a bit of a slow start, missing on 3-of-11 field goal attempts, but his leg is still strong and he has shown good mechanics throughout. Tom Rouen, on the other hand, looks flawless, averaging 47.2 yards per punt while pinning the opponent inside the 20-yard line on 16 of 26 punts. Rookie Chris Watson has been a pleasant surprise for the Broncos, as he is third in the league on kickoff returns with a 27.9 yard per return average.

Besides missing the potential game-winner against the Chiefs, Adam Vinatieri has been solid, connecting on 12-of-15, including two game-winning boots. P Lee Johnson has been outstanding for New England, making the Pats forget about the loss of Tom Tupa with an average of 44.4 yards per punt. New England needs to get better production out of its return units. Troy Brown is last in the league with a 7.6-yard punt return average, and Kevin Faulk is only averaging 22.9 yards per kickoff return.

Key matchups
  • New England WR Terry Glenn vs. Denver CB Dale Carter
    Glenn was ineffective last week versus the Miami double team, but has consistently dominated man-to-man matchups throughout his career. Carter needs to press more at the line of scrimmage to take away the underneath area and will get help from the safety position on Glenn in the deep third.

  • New England SS Lawyer Milloy vs. Denver RB Olandis Gary
    These two players are going to see an awful lot of each other on Sunday. Milloy becomes a 4-4 linebacker in running situations, eliminating Gary's cutback lanes backside. Gary will also be responsible for picking up Milloy on the blitz on passing downs. Milloy has become an effective pass rusher because of his ability to find the seam in the line of scrimmage and get to the quarterback before the running back has time to readjust his angle and pick up the blitzing Milloy.

  • New England TE Ben Coates vs. Denver safeties Eric Brown and Tyrone Braxton
    Coates' skills as a receiving tight end makes it tough for linebackers to cover the him downfield, so the Broncos safeties will be responsible for picking Coates up off the line of scrimmage in coverage. This makes the matchup on WR Terry Glenn that much more important, so that the safeties are free to cover Coates and not have to give help to their corners in the deep third.

    Denver will win if...
  • LB Bill Romanowski can get free to pressure QB Drew Bledsoe. New England has struggled to pick up the blitz and have been forced to keep a running back in to help block on passing downs. If Romanowski can get through the line of scrimmage, it will force the running back to pick up the blitz inside and will leave the Patriots susceptible to the rush off the edge.

  • The offense puts WR Rod Smith in motion and varies his starting position to get Smith open off the line of scrimmage and get him the ball on the move. Smith is going to have trouble getting the ball downfield off his routes because he will matchup with one of the top cover corners in the league, Ty Law. The Browns need to get their playmaker the ball immediately in order to benefit from his ability to run after the catch.

  • Cornerbacks Ray Crocket and Dale Carter can keep New England receivers Terry Glenn and Shawn Jefferson in check to allow the linebackers to concentrate on the pass rush and free up the safeties to cover Ben Coates off the line of scrimmage.

    New England will win if...

  • The offense runs the two-minute drill as its base offensive scheme. After six weeks of tinkering around and trying to establish a running game, it is obvious that this offense is most effective when they open it up and set the tempo by throwing the ball almost every down. The Patriot receivers are too fast to cover every down and Drew Bledsoe is too talented of a quarterback not to run more of a "fast break" offense.

  • Defensive coordinator Steve Sidwell keeps SS Lawyer Milloy close to the line of scrimmage. The Patriots are at their best on defense when Milloy is used as a 4-4 linebacker to stop the run and also come on the blitz on passing downs.

  • The Patriots use the run game as a change up to surprise the Bronco defense and keep them honest. At one point in last week's game versus Miami, the Patriots threw the ball 13 times in a row, then ran the ball with Lamont Warren and had the biggest gain of the day from the running game, 16-yards.

    The War Room edge
    The Patriots are coming off of two heartbreaking losses where their lack of a running game has cost them. The Broncos, on the other hand, have picked up the pieces and turned the ship around, rallying behind the play of sophomore quarterback Brian Griese for big wins over Oakland and Green Bay. For the first time in a while, the Patriots will be favored heading into a game with the Broncos. Decimated by injury and retirement, Denver is left with a shell of its two former Super Bowl teams. The question on Sunday is if New England will finally abandon its conservative offensive playbook for good and run more of a 2-minute drill look to wear out the Broncos in the air. If New England opens it up and never looks back, this could be a one-sided contest. However, if the Patriots decide to establish something on the ground and play close to the vest, Denver still has enough left to hang around and make this a 4th quarter decision.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
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