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Wednesday, October 20
War Room: Lions at Panthers


Detroit offense vs. Carolina defense
LIONS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 15
Pass 19
Tot. Yds. 19
Scoring 10
Int's allowed 6
Sacks allowed 23
   
PANTHERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 30
vs. Pass 23
Total yds. allowed 29
No. of INTs 1
No. of Sacks 15
Turnover differential -6
The Lions got a strong relief effort from Gus Frerotte last week but starting QB Charlie Batch is expected back this week from a bruised throwing arm. One player the Lions might not get back this week is WR Herman Moore, who left last Sunday's game with another leg injury. Detroit's receiver tandem of Johnnie Morton and Germane Crowell played better last week but that was only because the Vikings didn't play much press coverage.

Much like what the Chiefs did to them in Week 3, aggressive Panther DCs Doug Evans and Eric Davis will make it hard for the Lions receivers to release off the line of scrimmage, which could mean the another long day for the Bobby Ross' passing game. Batch's injury might affect his arm strength so look for the Lions to go with a more conservative and shorter passing game.

Two positives the Lions can pull from their last-minute win over Minnesota is the play of No. 3 WR Brian Stablein and TE David Sloan. The pair combined for only five catches and 54 yards but they made plays at crucial times when the offense appeared to be going exclusively through Morton and Crowell.

Carolina blitzed consistently all afternoon last Sunday against San Francisco, pressuring Niner QB Jeff Garcia into a 22-for-45 outing. Though they only sacked Garcia two times, the Panthers' front seven is clearly beginning to make strides and should be able to get to Batch against the Lions' banged up offensive line.

Injuries have robbed Detroit's front of any chance to gel as a unit. While it appeared they were recognizing the blitz a week ago, the lack of execution ultimately did them in.

Ross finally followed through on his promise to give RB Greg Hill a legitimate chance to prove himself and he responded with 67 yards on 11 carries, including a 36-yard romp in the first half. Hill and Ron Rivers should have big afternoon against one of the worst run defenses in the league. Carolina is giving up nearly 145 yards rushing per game but the defensive line is no longer being pushed around at the point of attack. Despite giving up 124 yards on 24 carries last week to the Niners, the Panthers are optimistic that they've turned things around.

The Lions will continue to distribute the carries between all of the backs but look for Hill to get another long look on Sunday because speed backs can get to the corner against the Panthers, especially on the left side of the Panthers' defensive line, where Antonio Edwards will start this week for the injured Jason Peter. Barrett Brooks earns his first start this week at right tackle and he should hold the upper hand in the run game against an edge rusher like Edwards.

Carolina offense vs. Detroit defense
PANTHERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 12
Pass 10
Tot. Yds. 8
Scoring 5
Int's allowed 6
Sacks allowed 16
   
LIONS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 12
vs. Pass 24
Total yds. allowed 19
No. of INTs 4
No. of Sacks 15
Turnover differential -1
In last week's win over the Niners, RB Tsimanga Biakabutuka ran hard in his first feature opportunity of the season, piling up 83 tough yards on 20 carries. The Panthers' offensive line is doing a much better job of opening holes in the run game because they are getting a good feel for where the ball carrier will be on every play. The most important factor in Biakabutuka playing every down is the timing it creates with the pulling guards and FB William Floyd. It becomes clearer every week that each player on the Panthers offense is getting on the same page.

Detroit's run defense held up well last week without MLB Stephen Boyd. Backup Scott Kowalkowski started in the middle and failed to record a solo tackle. The player that raised his game the most in Boyd's absence was SS Ron Rice, who quickly came up to plug the run and ended with a team-high seven tackles. With RB Robert Smith out of the game and the team staked to an early deficit, Viking coach Dennis Green abandoned the running game early and never really tested the mettle of the Boyd-less run defense.

Look for offensive coordinator Gil Haskell to pound the ball early on Sunday to see just how well the Lions will respond with journeyman Kowalkowski in the middle. The Panthers have surely seen plenty of tape from last season when the Lions were shredded for over 150 yards rushing on weekly basis without Boyd in the lineup.

Panther QB Steve Beuerlein made some poor throws last week against the Niners but he repeatedly bounced back and helped his team put points on the board. Beuerlein received better protection from his line last week but the Lions pass rush will be much more formidable, especially with LDE Robert Porcher near full strength. If Beuerlein isn't forced to rush his throws, he should have good success against the Lions' secondary. Detroit reserve DCs Robert Bailey and J.B. Brown played commendably the past couple of weeks but they were exposed for what they are -- backups -- when Jeff George was inserted in the second half.

Carolina No. 3 receiver Patrick Jeffers made an impact last week with starters Mushin Muhammad and Rae Carruth ailing. Carruth will sit on Sunday, leaving the team without a true deep option. Jeffers hadn't done much this season since coming over from the Cowboys but he used his size well last week against San Fran's diminutive corners en route to a six-reception, 93-yard outing. On the heels of last week's performance, look for Beuerlein to show more confidence in Jeffers, who should take advantage of height mismatches over the Lions' secondary.

Detroit could get back starting LDC Bryant Westbrook, who has played in only two games this season, which would at least bring some better size to the unit. Because the Panthers haven't used their backs effectively in the passing game all season, FS Mark Carrier must make sure that TE Wesley Walls doesn't run free down the middle of the field.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category DET CAR
Punt return avg. 12 27
Kickoff return avg. 8 10
Opp. punt return avg. 18 3
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 4 7
Time of possession 13 29
Detroit PK Jason Hansen coolly tied a franchise record with six field goals last week, proving why he is such a valuable member of this team. The Lions have struggled in the red zone without Herman Moore so Hansen could again play a big role if the jump-ball receiver can't play. Carolina's special teams logged their best performance of the season last week, as KOR Michael Bates registered two long returns and some heady play by the punt cover team (recovered fumble) set up another score. Panther P Ken Walter has been inconsistent but he remains among the league leaders with 12 kicks inside the 20. Detroit needs some good field position from KOR Terry Fair if they are to steal this one on the road.

Key matchups
  • Carolina TE Wesley Walls vs. Detroit OLB Alan Aldridge
    Walls is quietly having another fine season and it will be up to Aldridge to contain him. When the Lions go to a zone defense, the LB corps must get good depth to prevent Walls from making the big catch. Without Carruth, the Panthers will use Walls to stretch the field.

  • Detroit OL vs. Carolina DL
    Although they gave up four sacks, the Lions did a much better job in pass protection last week. Detroit will get a big boost this week if starting LOG Tony Semple is able to return to the lineup.

  • Detroit special teams vs. Carolina special teams
    This one could be decided by the kicking game and both teams have quality PK's. Detroit's Jason Hansen broke a franchise-record with six field goals last week and Panther John Kasay always kicks better at home.

    Detroit will win if...
  • They continue to diversify their play calling. The Lions were becoming too vanilla on offense but Offensive Coordinator Sylvester Croom did an excellent job of getting various personnel on the field last week.

  • They improve inside the red zone. Settling for six field goals will not get it done on a weekly basis. This is the area in which the lack of a run game hurts them most.

  • They continue to get contributions from their reserves. Injuries have hit the Lions harder than any other team in the league but they have overcome them through great play from their backups.

    Carolina will win if...

  • The offense takes care of the football. The Panthers were lucky to escape with a victory last week considering how many gifts they handed to San Francisco. The Lions' offense needs all the help it can get, which means QB Beuerlein must be sharp and not provide any.

  • They get after the quarterback. Detroit has struggled in pass protection all season and the injuries continue to mount. John Marshall's defense couldn't ask for anything more.

  • They continue to get contributions from unsung heroes on offense. WR Jeffers stepped up last week and made the Niners pay for doubling Muhammad. Beuerlein does a nice job of spreading the ball around and will get people the ball if they're open.

    The War Room edge
    The Panthers got a huge win last week and Seifert has this group playing with confidence. The one thing Carolina can't afford is a letdown against an emotional Detroit team. Because of injuries, the Lions don't have much offensive firepower so it will be up to their defense to set them with a short field. Look for the Panthers to get a couple of early scores and hang on for another big win.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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