Wednesday, October 20
The War Room
Green Bay offense vs. San Diego defense
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PACKERS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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23
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Pass
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3
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Tot. Yds.
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4
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Scoring
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15
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Int's allowed
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7
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Sacks allowed
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12
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CHARGERS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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1
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vs. Pass
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19
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Total yds. allowed
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9
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No. of INTs
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8
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No. of Sacks
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13
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Turnover differential
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+1
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Brett Favre was not his usual resilient self last week against the Broncos, digging his team into a hole even he couldn't get out from. Favre's 7-for-23, three interception outing resulted in the worst single game rating of his career (9.6). Favre sprayed the ball around the field all afternoon and was rarely in sync with his receivers. Playing without the services of ROT Earl Dotson killed Favre's protection, as Mike Wahle shifted over from his left guard spot and was abused all afternoon. The Broncos didn't blitz nearly has much as the Packers expected they would but the protection was so bad that they were forced to hold RB Dorsey Levens in for blocking purposes. Dotson will play on Sunday, which should shore up some of the OL's problems but look for Green Bay to use Levens more as a dump-off option than an emergency blocker this week if the Chargers start putting pressure on Favre. Offensive coordinator Sherm Lewis desperately needs to find a way to get the tight ends involved in the passing game. Starter Tyrone Davis, who has run some lethargic routes the past couple of weeks, has bruised ribs and might sit in favor of Jeff Thomason. Regardless of who gets the majority of the snaps, Favre can't continue ignoring the position because it will allow the Chargers to ignore the middle of the field and sit on the WR's crossing routes underneath.
Last week, the Broncos embarrassed the Packers up front, holding Levens to just 12 yards on 10 carries. San Diego must take a page from the Broncos game plan and take away Levens' cutback lanes. An interesting matchup to watch in the trenches will be LDT Norman Hand versus ROG Marco Rivera. Hand, who spearheads the No. 1 run defense in the league, was dominant last week against Seattle, registering seven solo tackles while holding Rickey Watters to just 2.6 per carry and a long of seven yards. Rivera is a fighter that usually holds his own against run-stuffing DT's like Hand but his job will be complicated by the Chargers' multiple blitz looks. San Diego suffered a huge blow this week when SS Rodney Harrison was listed out for Sunday's game, which will put even greater pressure on fill-in MLB Tracy Simien to stop the run.
San Diego offense vs. Green Bay defense
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CHARGERS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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31
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Pass
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24
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Tot. Yds.
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28
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Scoring
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11
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Int's allowed
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8
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Sacks allowed
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13
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PACKERS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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26
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vs. Pass
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20
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Total yds. allowed
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25
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No. of INTs
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9
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No. of Sacks
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12
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Turnover differential
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-4
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QB Erik Kramer threw four interceptions last week but he stayed poised and kept his team in the game until the end. After enduring a long afternoon at the hands of the Seattle defense, Kramer responded by going 4-for-4 on the game-winning drive despite no threat of a running game. With little talent on the perimeter, the Chargers are smartly infusing third down RB Terrell Fletcher into the passing game. Look for the Chargers to isolate Fletcher over the middle on MLB Bernardo Harris, who struggled badly in coverage two weeks ago against Tampa's Warrick Dunn. Green Bay's linebacker corps, which has played soft underneath coverage all season, must play tighter this week because the Chargers rarely throw the ball downfield. San Diego's pass protection has been decent considering all the injuries that have occurred across the offensive line. Ex-Packer LOG Aaron Taylor will return this week but they could be without ROT Vaughn Parker, who would be replaced by former starting ROG Raleigh Roundtree. The Packers' front four cannot be concerned with whom they line up across from -- they need to worry about generating a pass rush. RDT Santana Dotson will return from injury this week for the Packers but he will likely only play on passing downs. The Packers inability to get to the quarterback killed them last week against Denver and Defensive Coordinator Emmitt Thomas must start blitzing SS LeRoy Butler to get results. Thomas has greatly scaled back the number of blitzes per game this season and it has resulted in the secondary having to hold coverage too long.
Last week, Green Bay's run defense was the worst it has looked all season, allowing Denver rookie Olandis Gary to run for 123 yards in just his second start. The good news for Thomas' defense is that the Chargers are having similar problems of their own on the other side of the ball. San Diego rested RB Natrone Means against the Lions in hope of having him near full strength last week. That was hardly the case, as the team was held to 49 yards on 21 carries. Means, who is stilling running on tender ankles, has not hit the hole with any authority this season so look for increased roles for Fletcher and perhaps even Kenny Bynum. The Packers wore down last week in the second half and they could do the same thing this weekend after another long flight back to the West Coast. A key for Green Bay on Sunday will be how well they wrap up and tackle the ball carrier. FS Darren Sharper has embarrassed himself the past couple of weeks with careless tackling and a defense cannot afford to have their last line of defense miss open-field tackles.
Special teams
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NFL RANK
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Category
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GB
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SD
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Punt return avg.
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20
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23
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Kickoff return avg.
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28
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31
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Opp. punt return avg.
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20
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21
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Opp. kickoff ret. avg.
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25
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29
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Time of possession
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28
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15
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The Chargers' coverage units started the year slow but they stepped up big last week, holding Seattle rookie PR Charlie Rogers to just three yards on two returns. Green Bay's Desmond Howard is the biggest "sitting duck" in the league right now. After five games, the Packers have yet to correct the problems on their return teams and Howard is paying the price with big hits every Sunday. Green Bay P Louis Aguiar redeemed himself after a miserable showing against Tampa Bay by averaging 51.1 yards on seven kicks. Corey Bradford was a demon last week on coverage, registering four solo tackles against the Broncos. PK John Carney, who nailed the 41-yard game-winner last week, has missed two attempts between 40-49 yards. Green Bay's Ryan Longwell is 10-for-11 on the year.
Key matchups
Green Bay QB Brett Favre vs. San Diego OLB Junior Seau
Favre and the Packers offense never got in sync last week and he must correct things against the league's most physical defense. Seau will frustrate Favre with his many different looks.
Green Bay ROG Joe Andruzzi vs. San Diego LDT Norman Hand
The Packers' offensive woes are attributable to some spotty play up front. Because of injuries and free agent losses, Green Bay has been forced to play too many untested youngsters along the line. Both players are extremely strong so there should be some battles at the point of attack.
San Diego defensive coordinator Joe Pascale vs. Green Bay offensive coordinator Sherm Lewis
Which team gets the most out of last week's Chargers game. San Diego must prepare for virtually the same playbook and Green Bay has the opportunity to see which plays worked for Holmgren's Seahawks.
San Diego will win if...
They get the tight end involved in the offense. Packers TE's have one reception the past three games and teams are beginning to concede the middle of the field when they double the WR's. Tyrone Davis needs run better routes this week against OLB Lew Bush.
The OL and RB's can handle the blitz. The Chargers will go after the Packers' from all angles and the young players on the OL must do a better job of protecting Favre. The blitz has really given Green Bay problems since they lost Chmura because he was Favre's security blanket in those situations.
The defense starts tackling. The Packers have given up far too many yards after the catch and yards after contact this season. The Chargers will have a hard time sustaining drives so they can't afford to give up a fluke big play.
San Diego will win if...
They eliminate costly turnovers. Seattle couldn't capitalize on Erik Kramer's four INT's last week but the Chargers can't afford to give Favre the same help.
They shut down RB Levens and render the Packers offense one-dimensional. The Broncos used this formula to perfection last week and Favre struggled without the threat of play-action.
They find a way to run the football. Kramer is doing a good job of spreading the ball around in the passing game but the Chargers' rush offense is non-existent. RB Means is not at full strength but he needs to help move the chains.
The War Room edge
The Packers must endure another long road trip to the West Coast and they must regroup after last week's debacle in Denver. The Chargers can't move the ball offensively but their defense will keep them in this game. Sunday's game will come down whether San Diego can make Favre pay for gambling. Favre has bailed his team out on many occasions but San Diego's defense will make a couple of impact plays. Look for the Chargers to stay on their roll and pull out a narrow victory at home.
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