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Wednesday, October 20
War Room: Saints at Giants


New Orleans offense vs. New York defense
SAINTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 16
Pass 11
Tot. Yds. 11
Scoring 20
Int's allowed 6
Sacks allowed 11
   
GIANTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 6
vs. Pass 8
Total yds. allowed 4
No. of INTs 7
No. of Sacks 15
Turnover differential -9
Five games into the season it's hard to decipher the identity of this unit. From looking at their personnel, one would think the Saints would be a ground-oriented offense that uses the pass only to keep defenses from stacking the line of scrimmage. After the team's 1-4 start, it's becoming apparently clear that coach Ditka and his staff might have misevaluated their talent. The Saints are averaging 102 yards rushing per game but RB Ricky Williams managed just 35 yards on 17 carries last week against a undermanned Titan defense. The bulk of the problems come up front, where the offensive line is getting stacked at the point of attack.

A stout Giants run defense, which held the Cowboys to 24 yards on 25 carries, will have their way with the undermanned Saints on Sunday. New York ROLB Jesse Armstead is finally healthy and makes plays all over the field, but it's the contributions from role players like LOLB Ryan Phillips that make this defense special. Phillips has worked his way into the starting lineup this season and is playing aggressive, smart football on a weekly basis. Phillips made a couple of huge plays last Monday night, including one in which he kept contain on the backside and foiled an attempted reverse option. Things just don't look good for Williams on Sunday.

As surprisingly ineffective as they have been in the run game, the Saints OL has been equally effective in pass protection -- a big key considering QB Billy Joe Tolliver's lack of mobility. Tolliver played well enough for his team to win last week but three critical turnovers led to decisive scores for the Titans. WR Eddie Kennison, who again led the team last week with 94 yards receiving, is Tolliver's first option and the Saints must use a lot of motion to prevent him from being pressed at the line of scrimmage by RDC Jason Sehorn. TE Cam Cleeland played hurt last week and his status is in question for Sunday. Blocking specialist Scott Slutzker, who teamed with Cleeland for 11 catches and 147 yards, stepped in and played admirably, but the team loses a dynamic intermediate option if Cleeland can't play. Look for the Saints to test Phillips' ability in pass coverage because he has been on the losing end of some matchups this season. Washington's Stephen Alexander burned Phillips for five receptions, 86 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2.

New York offense vs. New Orleans defense
GIANTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 25
Pass 20
Tot. Yds. 27
Scoring 26
Int's allowed 6
Sacks allowed 15
   
SAINTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 21
vs. Pass 5
Total yds. allowed 11
No. of INTs 6
No. of Sacks 19
Turnover differential -6
New York's offensive production the past three weeks has been just that -- offensive. Jim Fassel's offense hasn't scored a touchdown in 11 quarters, dating back to the first quarter of their Week 4 victory over Philadelphia. As is the case with many teams around the league, the Giants' problems stem from poor play up front. While it is true that RB Gary Brown is running tentatively and with less authority than he did a year ago, the line simply isn't performing. The struggles of rookie LOG Luke Petitgout were somewhat expected but Fassel could not have expected LOT Roman Oben to be outplayed by players like Dallas' Kavika Pittman.

With so many teams stacking eight men in the box, the Giants are having trouble accounting for the extra defender. When the Saints walk SS Sammy Knight up to the line of scrimmage on Sunday, the Giants can either execute their combination blocks better -- where an offensive lineman comes off his initial block to reach a second defender -- or they can opt to single block every defender.

A normally capable Saint run defense was mauled last week by the Titans' 31st ranked rushing offense. New Orleans, whose front four is comprised of quick, undersized players like RDE Brady Smith and LDE Jared Tomich, gave up 155 yards to an offense that was averaging just 66.6 per game on the ground prior to last Sunday. Look for the Saints to keep the pressure on this struggling unit by blitzing a lot on running downs in order to take advantage of the Giants' slow-developing running game.

After last week's Monday night yawner, it's clear that Fassel's offense is out of sync, as can be expected when a team has instability at quarterback. The switch back to Kent Graham was not the success that the team expected last week. The lackluster Giant offense did not reach Dallas territory until midway through the second quarter on a drive that ended in the team's only three points of the half. Graham held the ball far too long waiting for his receivers to get open and as a result was sacked five times. The Saints' fifth-ranked pass defense forced 10 straight incompletions to start the game last week but the secondary had a hard time holding coverage once Neil O'Donnell was given ample time in the pocket.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category NO NY
Punt return avg. 22 3
Kickoff return avg. 21 14
Opp. punt return avg. 1 23
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 3 23
Time of possession 12 19
If the Giant offense continues to languish, PR Tiki Barber might be forced to come to the rescue again on Sunday. Barber's heroics were one of the lone bright spots last Monday but he'll have a tough time repeating that performance against the Saints' No. 1 ranked punt coverage unit. New Orleans PK Doug Brien has fought hard to rediscover his accuracy and it appears he may have done so against the Titans last week, nailing both of his field goal attempts. The Giants boast the second worst kick coverage unit in the league, which should help KOR Dino Philyaw finally break a long one.

Key matchups
  • New York WR Amani Toomer vs. New Orleans LDC Ashley Ambrose
    The Giants need to start going downfield with greater frequency but it will be tough to do on Ambrose, who already has four INT's. Tennessee's Kevin Dyson led the team last week with just three receptions and 41 yards against the Saints secondary.

  • New York LOT Roman Oben vs. New Orleans RDE Brady Smith
    Oben isn't playing near the level he did a year ago and Smith will surprise him with his speed off the edge. Oben has great feet for a big man but often concedes the edge to quick players like Smith.

  • New Orleans ROT Kyle Turley vs. New York LDE Michael Strahan
    Turley struggled in the first few games but he is starting to turn his game around. Turley has struggled picking up stunts so look for Strahan to get help from LDT Keith Hamilton.

    New Orleans will win if...
  • They don't wear down in the fourth quarter. The Saints folded again last week, giving up 17 fourth-quarter points to the Titans. There are many reasons (conservative play, penalties, turnovers) for New Orleans' failure to finish, but Ditka must see to it that it doesn't become a crippling mental block.

  • They find a way to move the ball on the ground. Offensive coordinator Danny Abramowicz is trying to compensate for the lack of a ground game with increased dump-offs to his RBs but there is no substitute for a move-the-chains runner.

  • The defense can force some turnovers. The Giants have been their own worst enemy this season and the Saints need that trend to continue. The front four must get after New York's sagging OL and force the Giants to complete passes under pressure.

    New York Giants will win if...

  • The offensive line does their job. The Giants' inability to run the football stems largely from some poor play up front and this could be the best front four they've faced thus far.

  • They can make a couple of big plays in the passing game. The Giants can't afford to let the Saints walk up a safety to stop the run without the fear of getting burned deep. Toomer and Hilliard must get separation on the perimeter.

  • The defense plays well on first down. The Giants need to force the Saints into plenty of second-and-long and third-and-long situations. Aside from a couple of big plays by WR's Poole or Kennison, the Saints' passing game simply doesn't scare defenses.

    The War Room edge
    The Saints are playing well enough to win and their inability to close out games has been costly. The Giants are playing so poorly on offense that John Fox's defense has to get it done. This one will be a low-scoring contest decided by field position. Neither of these teams are fulfilling their potential but one of them has to win on Sunday. The home field advantage will make the difference for the Giants. Ditka's team will drop another heart-breaker.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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