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Wednesday, October 20
War Room: Jets at Raiders


New York offense vs. Oakland defense
JETS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 13
Pass 25
Tot. Yds. 22
Scoring 25
Int's allowed 10
Sacks allowed 23
   
RAIDERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 4
vs. Pass 26
Total yds. allowed 19
No. of INTs 11
No. of Sacks 17
Turnover differential +2
The Jets finally found an offensive spark in the form of Ray Lucas until the sophomore quarterback sprained his ankle on the final play of last Sunday's game versus the Indianapolis Colts. As of right now, Rick Mirer will resume the role of the starter, but the feeling around camp is that the Jets are unable to win with Mirer behind center.

The Jets offensive woes will continue on Sunday when they face one of the top defenses in the NFL and have to matchup against arguably the best cornerback trio the league has to offer. Mirer will have a lot of man-to-man coverages to work with on his receivers, but for once these matchups present a problem. The Raiders are going to use Eric Allen to cover Keyshawn Johnson and press him at the line of scrimmage, knowing that he will have the coverage rolled to his side. The safeties will leave Charles Woodson alone on an island with Wayne Chrebet knowing that Woodson is fully capable of shutting down the 3rd down receiver on his own. On 3rd down passing situations, Darrien Gordon will come in to cover slot receiver Dedric Ward, and should be able to keep up with the speedy Ward.

The key for the Jets to find success throwing the ball will be to get production out of its TE Eric Green and running backs out of the backfield. The Raiders have had trouble with breakdowns in coverage on third down defensively. The most susceptible part of the Raider defense has been the middle of the field, where receivers have been able to shake the coverage on crossing routes when teams have spread the field. Look for Ward to take sharp angles out of his slot position and take advantage of the man coverage underneath. The reason that the tight ends and running backs need to post a huge afternoon is because they should be able to slip into the open areas underneath where the corners have backed out in single man coverage on the receivers down the field.

The biggest problem the Jets running game faces when Mirer is in the game is that he is unable to take advantages downfield to stretch the defense and make them play honest. Teams are challenging Mirer to throw the ball with eight man fronts and man-to-man matchups outside on his receivers. What this does is allow the safeties to walk up closer to the line of scrimmage and help in run support.

In order to stop the run on the weakside, it is imperative for the SS Anthony Newman or FS Eric Turner to give help because of K.D. Williams' inability to stack up when teams run right at him. Williams is an excellent upfield rush guy, but has trouble playing in a phone booth. The safety will have to play close to the line of scrimmage to meet Curtis Martin in the hole that is created when Williams is forced wide by OT Jumbo Elliot.

Oakland offense vs. New York defense
RAIDERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 1
Pass 14
Tot. Yds. 6
Scoring 14
Int's allowed 4
Sacks allowed 19
   
JETS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 24
vs. Pass 21
Total yds. allowed 23
No. of INTs 7
No. of Sacks 6
Turnover differential -5
The Raiders seem to have realized the key to success with their personnel. The last two weeks, the offense has made a conscious effort to run the ball as often as possible, realizing that with such a good defense all the offense needs to do is win the time of possession battle and take advantage of defense-generated opportunities. Now that the Raiders have established a complimentary duo at the running back position and have proved capable of sustaining drives on the ground, the offense has become a low-risk dream for coach Jon Gruden.

Oakland has simplified its blocking scheme and has been doing a lot more straight ahead power blocking in the run game. This new scheme calls for a lot less zone blocking and is easier for RB's Tyrone Wheatley and Napolean Kaufman to distinguish the hole and move north/south. The biggest beneficiary of the new scheme is reserve OT Barry Sims, who is filling in for the injured Mo Collins. Sims was matched up with Bruce Smith last week and was did a remarkable job of shutting down the veteran because he was able to focus all of his attention on one assignment.

The Jets know that the Raiders are looking to stick with the plan of running the ball 40-plus times on Sunday, and are going to adjust accordingly. The Jets do a good job defensively of clogging the middle and are going to need a huge day out of NT Jason Ferguson if they are to shut down Wheatley between the tackles. Furguson does an excellent job of getting to one side of the offensive center and driving him out into either the A or B gaps. If Ferguson can handle OC Barrett Robbins, ILB Bryan Cox becomes that much more effective versus the run. Cox takes a sharp angle off of Furguson's hip and attacks the emptied space. Cox will then be forced to take on FB Jon Ritchie in the hole. Ritchie's role in the run game is critical, because he is the only man available to kick Cox out of the hole and spring Wheatley into the secondary. If Cox gets the best of Ritchie, Wheatley will be forced to string the ball outside where he is less effective and the Jets do an excellent job of keeping contain.

The Raiders, when they pass, will use a lot of play-action off the run. Rich Gannon will be able to create excellent man-to-man matchup situations for his receivers on the outside if he can get FS Victor Green to take some false steps on the play fake. Green does an outstanding job of reading quarterbacks eyes and getting good breaks on the ball, but has been known to bite on the run fake. If Gannon can freeze the free safety, he will take the matchups of Aaron Glenn and Ray Mickens on his track-star receivers, James Jett and Tim Brown.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category NYJ OAK
Punt return avg. 17 4
Kickoff return avg. 5 29
Opp. punt return avg. 14 26
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 24 21
Time of possession 20 2
The Jets have had excellent punting performances out of Tom Tupa, and have needed it with the stagnant play of its offense. Tupa is averaging 45.3 yards per return and has dropped 11 of his 31 punts inside the opponents 20-yard line. The offense needs some more help from the return units, where Aaron Glenn and Dedric Ward have been marginal this season and have failed to give a spark. K Michael Husted has stumbled out of the gates, missing 5 of his first 15 field goal attempts. His mechanics have looked fine, but his range has been a problem. Darrien Gordon has given the return unit a boost, averaging 12.4-yards per punt return with a long of 78.

Key matchups
  • Oakland TE Ricky Dudley vs. New York OLB Mo Lewis
    Even though it is a bit of a mismatch favoring the tight end, the Jets are forced to use a linebacker to cover Dudley in order to free up its safeties to help coverage in the deep third against the Raiders' speedy receivers, Tim Brown and James Jett. If Lewis is unable to handle the matchup, the Jets will have to get help from their safeties, which will leave the secondary susceptible up top.

  • New York WR Wayne Chrebet vs. Oakland CB Charles Woodson
    If Woodson is able to shut down Chrebet underneath, it not only takes away the Jets top possession receiver who keeps the chains moving on many thirrd downs, but it also allows FS Eric Turner to cheat over and help Eric Allen on Keyshawn Johnson.

  • Oakland QB Rich Gannon vs. New York FS Victor Green
    Green has done an excellent job this season playing centerfield, reading quarterbacks eyes and getting excellent breaks on the ball. Oakland loves to run play-action off of their tough run game, and will look to force Green to take false steps on the play fake in order to open up throwing lanes down the seams.

    New York Jets will win if...
  • They get production out of TE Eric Green and the running backs in the passing game. The Jets are up against one of the top defensive corner trios (Eric Allen, Charles Woodson and Darrien Gordon) in the league, and are going to have to get yardage in the receiving game from the outlet receivers who will work the underneath zone against the linebacking corps of the Raiders who have had trouble in coverage.

  • NT Jason Fergusun is able to dictate his matchup with OC Barrett Robbins. The Jets use Furguson almost as a blocker to push the offensive center to one side, giving Bryan Cox free lanes to come on the blitz or make plays versus the run.

  • They can run the ball effectively and win the time of possession battle. With the quarterback situation as it is, the Jets need to run the ball to sustain drives and avoid many 3rd down and long situations that make the quarterback vulnerable to the pass rush as he looks downfield.

    Oakland will win if...

  • The offense puts WR Tim Brown in motion and vary his starting point off the line of scrimmage to help clear him of tight man coverage. By doing so, Brown should get better matchup opportunities and he has shown to be more effective underneath when he is on the move taking off the line of scrimmage. The Raiders are also effective motioning Brown over to the same side as James Jett to flood the area and force a high/low read that puts the secondary under tremendous pressure.

  • The defensive front seven can create pass rush pressure by stunting the defensive ends inside and bringing outside linebackers on the blitz off the edge. OLB K.D. Williams has been most effective rushing the passer wide when the DE James Harris and DT Russell Maryland run an underneath stunt that draws attention from the right side of the line and give Williams a clear shot at the quarterback.

  • DC's Eric Allen and Charles Woodson can match up man-to-man and take out the Jets receivers without help from the safeties in the deep zone and the linebackers underneath. The Raiders have an explosive front seven that can shut down the run game and get to the quarterback if the linebackers are not responsible for dropping into coverage.

    The War Room edge
    Oakland is playing some of the best football, especially defense, in the league, and it finally paid off in last Sunday's victory over the Bills at Orchard Park. If the play on the defensive side remains dominant and the offense continues to grow as a unit, the Raiders have a chance to control the Jets in every facet of Sunday's game. Just when it looked as if the Jets had found a spark plug for the offense, QB Ray Lucas injured his ankle on the final play of the game last week versus the Colts. Whether it is Lucas or Rick Mirer, the passing game will have little room to work against one of the strongest corner trios in the league. If the Jets are going to stick around in this one, their defense is going to have to make some big plays and even score some points. The Raiders are too strong defensively and will be able to put up enough points with a solid run game and speedy receivers to win this contest by more than ten points.

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