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Wednesday, October 20
War Room: 49ers at Vikings


San Francisco offense vs. Minnesota defense
49ERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 14
Pass 23
Tot. Yds. 20
Scoring 12
Int's allowed 8
Sacks allowed 14
   
VIKINGS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 18
vs. Pass 29
Total yds. allowed 27
No. of INTs 1
No. of Sacks 13
Turnover differential -11
Niners' QB Jeff Garcia continues to impress, directing the team with poise and sound decision making. In order to mask some lingering injuries on the offensive line, look for Coach Steve Mariucci to stick with predominantly short drop sequences mixed in with occasional rollouts to take advantage of Garcia's ability to throw on the run.

The Vikings are having a very difficult time generating a consistent pass rush, even with the additions of Chris Doleman and Jerry Ball. Minnesota did register four sacks last week against a patchwork Detroit front but the pressure was far too sporadic and virtually non-existent on the Lions final drive.

San Francisco's desire to play to Garcia's strengths has all but eliminated their vertical passing game. To that point, WR Terrell Owens, who is out at least three weeks due to injury, leads the club with a 12.0 per catch average, with Jerry Rice (10.0) and J.J. Stokes (10.8) threatening to fall into single digits. Though the lack of a big-play element should concern Mariucci, San Fran's revised game plan should work well against the Vikings' struggling corners.

On the Lions' game-winning drive, the Vikings soft coverage allowed backup Gus Frerotte to go 5-of-9 for 48 yards in 1:27 and all of the completions were on slants and quick stop routes in front of soft 8-10 yard cushions. All four of Frerotte's incompletions came on spiked passes to stop the clock. Look for the Niners to work outside receivers Rice and Mark Harris until Minnesota finds a way to stop them.

The Vikings are giving up 102.8 yards per game (3.9 avg.) on the ground and they appear to be particularly susceptible to quick-hitters up the middle. The Niners have plenty of plays designed to take advantage of RB Charlie Garner's slashing style but the key will be getting OC Chris Dalman out on MLB Ed McDaniel. Dalman is playing on a bum knee and might have trouble reaching McDaniel, so look for FB Fred Beasley to play a bigger role than usual on Sunday.

Because of injuries up front, the Niners have been forced to limit the number of plays that demand their lineman to pull. Because of Garner's effectiveness (4.9 per carry), the Niners have slowly fazed Lawrence Phillips out of the run game, which makes it easier for defenses to prepare for their offense.

In light of John Randle's recent struggles, the best player on the Vikings' defense has been SS Robert Griffith. Minnesota's struggles at cornerback have dictated a lesser role for Griffith against the run, as he can no longer play as much near the line of scrimmage. Without Griffith in the box, it is imperative that the Vikings get solid play from DTs Ball and Tony Williams. Ball was shut out and Williams managed only two tackles last week -- a big reason why the Lions' marginal backfield averaged 4.9 yards per carry.

Minnesota offense vs. San Francisco defense
VIKINGS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 21
Pass 4
Tot. Yds. 7
Scoring 16
Int's allowed 10
Sacks allowed 17
   
49ERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 13
vs. Pass 30
Total yds. allowed 26
No. of INTs 9
No. of Sacks 13
Turnover differential -3
QB Randall Cunningham's consistently shaky play, combined with Jeff George's solid performance last Sunday, put Coach Dennis Green in an unenviable position. Green ultimately decided that his backup will get a shot to turn things around for his sagging offense. George played extremely well in relief last week, completing 10-of-12 passes for 214 yards and two scores. George did two things that Cunningham was unable to -- make quick reads and complete big plays downfield.

Coming into last week's game, WR Randy Moss had only one catch over 30 yards and he doubled that total in the second half against Detroit. The Niners' secondary came up with three big interceptions last week but they did give up six catches and 96 yards to WR Mushin Muhammad. The Vikings hold at least a four-inch height advantage with all three of their receivers, so look for plenty of jump-balls and deep go routes downfield. The Niners are having a very difficult time putting pressure on the quarterback, sacking opposing quarterbacks just four times in the past three games. Although Junior Bryant's shift from RDT to LDE didn't pay dividends last week, this unit should start producing more once players like Brentson Buckner get accustomed to an increased role.

Minnesota's running game took a huge blow last week when RB Robert Smith was lost for up to six weeks with a hernia. With Smith out, short-yardage and goal-line specialist Leroy Hoard assumes the starting role. Hoard is not having the type of season he enjoyed a year ago but he will benefit from George's ability to stretch the defense.

The Vikings will now look to No. 3 RB Moe Williams for a change of pace option on third down. Although he's never really found his niche in the Viking offense, Williams has the ability to be an above-average nickel option. With Hoard hammering the ball inside, Williams should get 5-10 touches a game on swing passes and sweeps. San Francisco's run defense has been superior all season, holding opposing runners to just 3.3 yards per carry, but they have yet to face a line that pulls its center as much as the Vikings. OC Jeff Christy is the key to the Vikings' running game and he will be the key player that the Niners must diagnose on run downs, as he leads most plays.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category SF MIN
Punt return avg. 30 29
Kickoff return avg. 11 19
Opp. punt return avg. 8 11
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 31 14
Time of possession 21 23
49er Special teams' coach George Stewart's troops are suffering from a lack of able bodies but he can't use that as an excuse for last week's debacle. Carolina KOR Michael Bates' 74-yard return and a punt return error led directly to two scores for the Panthers. Minnesota's David Palmer hasn't broken anything yet but he is still a huge concern for the Niners' eighth-ranked punt cover unit. Viking PK Gary Anderson seems to be settling down and connected on a would-be game-winning field goal with less than two minutes to play if only the defense wouldn't have allowed the Lions to march down the field and score. San Francisco PK Wade Richey is a perfect 8-of-8 but young kickers rarely fare well in with the Metrodome crowd in their ear. Minnesota P Mitch Berger leads the league with a 49.8 average and his hang-time will make it difficult for McQuarters to get a head of steam.

Key matchups
  • Minnesota FS Orlando Thomas vs. San Francisco passing game
    With the cornerbacks struggling, Thomas must cover a lot of ground. The Vikings' DCs desperately need Thomas' help, especially in the deep third of the field.

  • San Francisco DCs vs. Minnesota WR Randy Moss
    After a slow start, Moss is beginning to regain his rookie form. Moss, who has three consecutive 100-yard games to his credit, poses huge matchup problems for San Francisco's undersized secondary.

  • San Francisco QB Jeff Garcia vs. Minnesota DCs
    Jimmy Hitchcock and Kenny Wright gave the Lions' receivers huge cushions last week, which means Garcia must be patient and move the ball with quick hitters underneath.

    San Francisco will win if...
  • They are able to consistently move the chains with the short passing game. Minnesota's safeties are playing great football so look for the Niners to avoid the middle of the field. Garcia must use all his options, especially his RBs on screens.

  • They play physical football. The Vikings have been outmuscled up front all season and the less talented Niners must take advantage of their shaken psyche.

  • They put consistent pressure on the quarterback. The Vikings can't throw the long ball without time. San Francisco's banged up front four will need help from SS Tim McDonald and OLB Lee Woodall.

    Minnesota will win if...

  • They stick with Jeff George at quarterback. Cunningham's Pro-Bowl season a year ago was nothing more than an aberration. The Vikings have too much talent offensively to struggle the way they did with Cunningham under center. If he can get his teammates to rally around him, George should keep the starting job.

  • They find a way to run the football. Despite last week's second-half explosion, the Vikings have yet to find a consistent ground game. Robert Smith's health is still a big concern, so Leroy Hoard and Moe Williams must get it done.

  • They dictate the tempo of the game. Detroit slowed the game down in the first half last week and forced the Vikings into a defensive struggle. The Vikings are at their best when their offense pushes the issue.

    The War Room edge
    Neither team is playing with the quarterback they started the season with but at least Dennis Green has options. Jeff George is a good short-term fix for a team that simply needs to get back on the winning track. Even without Terrell Owens, the Niners should be able to put points on the board against a struggling Vikings secondary. Minnesota is only a couple of last minute losses away from a respectable start and George will put them over the top this week. Vikings get back on track in a shoot-out.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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