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Wednesday, October 27
War Room: Bills at Ravens


Buffalo offense vs. Baltimore defense
BILLS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 7
Pass 16
Tot. Yds. 9
Scoring 17
Int's allowed 8
Sacks allowed 14
   
RAVENS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 10
vs. Pass 5
Total yds. allowed 6
No. of INTs 3
No. of Sacks 13
Turnover differential -6
The loss of WR Eric Moulds is as big a loss as there could be to an offense in this league. Moulds is Doug Flutie's go-to-receiver and the reason the Bills have been so successful spreading the field and running a wide-open offense. Now, with Moulds out of the lineup, the Bills are forced to shorten up the field and play a more condensed version of their offensive scheme. Peerless Price moves to the No. 2 receiver spot, Kamil Loud and Kevin Williams to handle the No. 3 receiver duties. Expect to see RB's Antowain Smith and Jonathan Linton lining up in the slot and running some routes as the No. 4 receiver.

The Bills offensive philosophy is to stretch the defense horizontally and vertically in order to give Flutie room to work. Flutie has been so successful in the past because he is able to get outside the tackles, see the field better and force the defense to defend against the run/pass option. Without his No. 1 receiver, Flutie becomes handcuffed. Teams are able to concentrate on pressuring the quarterback up the middle. They can remove themselves from the edges now that they can get out of the nickel set and cover the No. 3 and No. 4 receivers with linebackers and safeties in a zone.

The Ravens outside linebackers have been doing an excellent job in coverage and will be responsible for matching up with the back out of the backfield and TE Jay Riemersma off the line of scrimmage. This means that FS Rod Woodson will be matched up with either Loud or Williams (the No. 3 receiver), allowing the Ravens to keep base personnel in the game defensively. This gives them a chance to spy Doug Flutie with a defensive end or an outside linebacker, depending on how many receivers are in the game.

The Bills are going to have a tough time establishing the run game against the Ravens front seven. The defensive tackles, Tony Siragusa, Larry Webster and even Lionel Dalton in certain situations, have been doing an excellent job of taking up one or two blockers, allowing MLB Ray Lewis to cover ground and make plays on the move.

The key to the run game is going to be the play of OC Jerry Ostroski. Ostroski is a scrappy veteran, but lacks the great quickness and speed needed to get out and chip the middle linebacker. The Bills, because of their running scheme, will call upon Ostroski to take the angle in pursuit and try to cut down Lewis as he chases the play. Lewis will win this matchup most of the afternoon and should be a big factor in how the Ravens shut down the Bills run game.

Baltimore offense vs. Buffalo defense
RAVENS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 12
Pass 27
Tot. Yds. 14
Scoring 26
Int's allowed 10
Sacks allowed 19
   
BILLS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 11
vs. Pass 12
Total yds. allowed 9
No. of INTs 5
No. of Sacks 11
Turnover differential -7
The Ravens passing game has been non-existent for three reasons. First, QB Stoney Case is not a starting quarterback in this league. Case does not see the field well and he does not have the arm to make NFL throws against coverage. Furthermore, he is too quick to tuck the ball and run instead of waiting in the pocket for his receivers to come out of their routes. Secondly, the wide receivers are not getting off of the line of scrimmage against press coverage and do not have enough natural talent to get open against the top cornerbacks in the league. Finally, the offensive line has been hit hard by injuries and is not equipped to protect the quarterback, especially against defensive front sevens such as the Chiefs and Bills.

Because of Case's ineffectiveness, coach Brian Billick has made the decision to start Tony Banks. Banks is similar to Case in the fact that he will make mistakes, but the advantage of having Banks in the game is that he can throw the ball down the field. Banks' trouble has been the fact that he folds under pressure. Banks has a tendency to throw off his back foot and force the ball into coverage when the rush is in his face.

Buffalo has done an excellent job of rushing the passer, putting enormous pressure on the offensive guards by stunting inside and blitzing the C and D gaps with outside linebackers Gabe Northern and Sam Rogers. The Bills only have eleven sacks on the season, but they have been hurrying and knocking down quarterbacks with great consistency. Pay close attention to the matchup between RG Jeff Blackshear versus RDE Bruce Smith. Because of the loss to LDE Phil Hansen to injury, the Bills are going to attack the left side of the Ravens offensive line, stunting Smith to the inside and allowing OLB Gabe Northern to attack the vacated area.

The Ravens will be almost equally ineffective running the ball against Buffalo simply because the Bills are able to cheat in the game plan. Knowing the Ravens passing woes, Buffalo will stack the line of scrimmage and dare the Ravens to beat by throwing the ball. Thomas Smith and Ken Irvin will line up in single-man coverage, allowing Kurt Schultz to walk up close to the line of scrimmage and play more run support.

The Bills have allowed just 88.1-yards per game on the ground and should be well-equipped to shut down the Ravens tackle-to-tackle run game with an extra man in the box. RB Errict Rhett has been picking up most of his yardage inside the hashes, but teams are now recognizing that he is incapable of bouncing it outside, so the key is to clog the middle. The Bills have one of the top run-stuffing defensive nose tackles in the league, Ted Washington, and should be able to pinch inside with the defensive ends and run-blitz the inside linebackers in order to flush Rhett outside and force him wide to the sideline.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category BUF BAL
Punt return avg. 6 19
Kickoff return avg. 30 14
Opp. punt return avg. 6 10
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 22 8
Time of possession 14 23
PK Steve Christie has been solid for the Bills all season, connecting on 12-of-15 with a long of 52 yards. Chris Mohr is an excellent weapon against PR Jermaine Lewis because of his hang time. The Bills should be able to use Mohr's hang time to get down the field and cut off the run lanes. Kevin Williams has averaged 11.0-yards per return, giving the Bills solid field position most of the season when teams are forced to punt.

PK Matt Stover continues to dig his grave, missing a 37-yard field goal on Thursday night. Coach Brian Billick has been less than impressed with Stover and seems dead set on bringing in a new kicker. Kyle Richardson, on the other hand, has been brilliant for the Ravens. He landed four punts inside Kansas City's twenty-yard line last week, and upped his season punting average to 42.3-yards per punt. The return game has been middle of the pack, but the concern here is the play of punt return man Jermaine Lewis, who has averaged just 8.4-yards per return.

Key matchups
  • Baltimore OC Jeff Mitchell vs. Buffalo NT Ted Washington
    Mitchell will have his hands full on Sunday with the massive nose tackle, but it is critical that he is able to handle the matchup without help from the double team. If the Ravens are forced to double team Washington, it opens up blitzing lanes for the linebackers and will give the Bills inside linebackers clearer paths to the ball carrier.

  • Baltimore WR Jermaine Lewis vs. Buffalo CB Antoine Winfield
    Winfield got burned a couple of times last Sunday when covering the slot receiver. He seems to be expecting help in the deep third, and is letting the receiver get by him off the line of scrimmage. Winfield is going to have to cover Lewis, the Ravens home run threat receiver. Expect to see a couple of big-plays out of this matchup.

  • Buffalo RB Antowain Smith vs. Baltimore SS Kim Herring
    The Ravens defense is designed for the strong safety to make a lot of plays in the run game. Thus far, Herring has been ineffective against the run, and teams are picking up an extra yard or two every time they break into the secondary, because Herring has been missing tackles and getting caught up in traffic. Smith and Linton are going to have to take advantage of getting through the line of scrimmage and make the Ravens pay when Herring is out of position or can not make the play.

    Buffalo will win if...
  • Cornerbacks Thomas Smith and Ken Irvin can shut down Baltimore's marginal receiving corps in single man coverage. FS Kurt Schulz will then be able to walk up close to the line of scrimmage and help in run support more often without concerning himself with the deep third. The Bills concern is that rookie CB Antwain Winfield was burned a couple of times last week in man-to-man, and will likely need some help covering Jermaine Lewis out of the slot.

  • WR Peerless Price is set in motion before the snap. With the loss of Eric Moulds, Price has become more productive and significant within Buffalo's offensive scheme. However, Price has shown some problems with tight man coverage, so by motioning the receiver down the line, you give him a better chance to get open immediately.

  • The Buffalo receivers catch the catchable balls. Buffalo dropped eight of Doug Fluties catches, and completely took the passing game out of rhythm early on in the game. With teams trying to pressure Flutie and take away his throwing lanes, it becomes that much more important for his receivers to make the catch, because of the Bills beat the rush, it will force the defense to back the pressure off and hang in coverage.

    Baltimore will win if...

  • The defensive front seven can get up field, contain and spy Doug Flutie. Seattle did an excellent job last week because they used team speed on defense to not only pressure Flutie, but to also force him to stay within the confines of the pocket. The Ravens are going to stunt their defensive ends inside on occasion while blitzing the outside linebacker in order to get pressure and contain from the outside and creating traffic in the middle to clutter Flutie's vision.

  • Throw the ball on first down. The Ravens have been getting too many third and long situations and need to open it up more on first and second down. Even if there is nothing opening up in the passing game, QB Stoney Case is a productive runner and is capable of tucking the ball and taking off.

  • Attack the left side of the Bills defense. LB John Holececk and DE Phil Hansen are both bothered by injury and even if they play, they are less the 100%. The Ravens should be successful running the football downfield to that side, exploiting the weakness.

    The War Room edge
    The Ravens have had nine days to prepare for the Bills coming into town, but it is not going to matter. Both coaching staffs are scratching their heads at the dismal production from its respective offenses, but the difference is that the Bills will eventually get untracked and the Ravens do not have the personnel to do so. This game will not feature fireworks or offensive explosion, but expect to see a low scoring game with the Bill running away with it in the 4th quarter. Buffalo is going to smother the Raven's offense and force them into too many mistakes and golden opportunities for its offense to take advantage of in Raven territory.

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    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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