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Wednesday, October 27
War Room: Panthers at Falcons


Carolina offense vs. Atlanta defense
PANTHERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 14
Pass 7
Tot. Yds. 7
Scoring 11
Int's allowed 7
Sacks allowed 20
   
FALCONS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 27
vs. Pass 4
Total yds. allowed 15
No. of INTs 4
No. of Sacks 13
Turnover differential -15
Carolina coach George Seifert has openly admitted that he was out coached last week by Detroit's Bobby Ross, but the Panthers' red-zone struggles can also be attributed to poor execution by his players. Sure, the Panthers should be throwing more fade routes to WR Mushin Muhammad, but there is no excuse for losing 30 yards and committing two turnovers in five trips inside the 5 yard line.

The loss of starting LOG Matt Campbell killed them on two off tackle runs near the goal line. Replacement Bryan Stoltenberg and LOT Clarence Jones allowed too much penetration at the point of attack, and the backs had little time to make defenders miss. Stoltenberg and the entire line must do a better job of picking up the run blitz this week because RB Tim Biakabutuka's ankle injury will force backup Fred Lane into the lineup. Biakabutuka received few practice reps last week and his performance suffered so Seifert will turn to Lane for production.

With Lane in the lineup, offensive coordinator Gil Haskell will use more of an inside running game to take advantage of Lane's vision and quickness through the hole. Carolina had shifted to a wide running game with Biakabutuka but Seifert won't play him if he's not ready.

The Falcons will be in big trouble on Sunday if MLB Jesse Tuggle can't play for the third straight week. Rookie Jeff Kelly had a team-high nine tackles last week against Pittsburgh but he was too slow to the hole and didn't hold his ground nearly as well as Tuggle.

Weak-side backer Keith Brooking returns this week and his presence should stabilize a unit that has struggled badly the past two weeks because of numerous personnel changes. With starters playing out of position and backups forced into significant roles, the Falcons LB corps cannot play any worse.

QB Steve Beuerlein must bounce back from his worst performance of the season last week against the Lions. While the numbers (26-of-47, 299 yds, 1 INT) don't reflect his ineffectiveness, Buerlein must find a way to execute on Sunday with a decimated receiving corps. With Patrick Jeffers and Rae Carruth likely out, veteran Eric Metcalf and sophomore Donald Hayes must find a way to get better separation from the Falcons secondary than the Steelers did last Monday night.

The biggest key to the Panthers passing game will be the involvement of Pro Bowl TE Wesley Walls, who failed to catch a single pass for the first time all season against Detroit. Walls scored a touchdown in both meetings against the Falcons last season because "Sam" linebacker Henri Crockett was caught out of position in the Falcons' zone defense. Atlanta's fourth rated pass defense has done a better job of preventing the big play in recent weeks but they need to start making plays of their own. The Falcons' interception total (4) is the third lowest in the league.

Atlanta offense vs. Carolina defense
FALCONS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 29
Pass 13
Tot. Yds. 23
Scoring 30
Int's allowed 7
Sacks allowed 24
   
PANTHERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 29
vs. Pass 18
Total yds. allowed 27
No. of INTs 2
# of Sacks 15
Turnover differential -7
Atlanta QB Chris Chandler finally made it through an entire game last week but he couldn't hit WR Tim Dwight on a slant route when it counted. Of Chandler's 20 completions against the Steelers, WR Terrance Mathis caught 12. There isn't a team in the league that can win with such tunnel vision in the passing game. The Falcons have three talented tight ends on their roster that have combined for only 17 receptions in seven games. Chandler needs to be conscious on the tight end position now that Dwight is beginning to show promise as a deep threat because a vertical passing game will clear FS Mike Minter from the middle of the field.

Carolina DCs Evans and Davis are giving generous cushions, allowing receivers to make the easy 5-yard catch. In theory this is not a bad defensive philosophy but Evans' inability to tackle people is becoming a lingering problem. Last week, Detroit's Johnnie Morton broke an Evans arm tackle and raced up the sideline to convert a critical third down. This is not the type of effort the Panthers can afford against the Falcons' 13th rated passing offense.

As is the case with every team that faces Chandler, the Panthers must get physical with Chandler. Whether they sack him is not the issue, John Marshall's defense will be gunning for consistent knockdowns. The Falcons' offensive line has given up the third most sacks in the league and the Panthers will target the majority of their blitzes inside because they have had trouble generating pressure with DTs Sean Gilbert and Tim Morabito.

Atlanta Head Coach Dan Reeves has to do something about how predictable his offense is becoming. Of RB Ken Oxendine's 14 carries, twelve came on simple dives up the middle. Ineffective nickel RB Byron Hanspard received only four carries against the Steelers because he no longer has the speed he once did to get to the corner. The Falcons are averaging an embarrassing 68.3 yards per game on the ground and Reeves desperately needs to shake things up a bit.

Veteran LOG Greg Bishop, who got his first start last Monday in place of second-year player Bob Hallen, isn't very athletic but he's a scrappy in-line blocker that fits better with the Falcons' power running game.

The Panthers are giving up over 135 yards per game on the ground and the majority of the blame can be placed on their linebackers. OLBs Michael Barrow and Kevin Greene were slow to react all afternoon last Sunday against Detroit and combined for just one solo tackle.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category CAR ATL
Punt return avg. 28 27
Kickoff return avg. 15 27
Opp. punt return avg. 3 1
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 14 30
Time of possession 28 20
The Panthers' cover teams gave up a 57-yard kickoff return last week but they bounced back to force a fumble on the opening kickoff of the second half. The Falcons have had veteran starters on their roster volunteer to play on coverage teams in order for the situation to improve.

Both sides are struggling on returns so don't look for any game altering plays on special teams. Atlanta PK Morten Anderson is 6-of-7 since missing his first four field goal attempts of the season. The punting of Carolina's Ken Walter and Atlanta's Dan Stryzinski will be pivotal in a game where field position will be essential.

Key matchups
  • Panthers QB Steve Beuerlein vs. Atlanta red-zone defense
    Beuerlein cost his team some points, a lot of points, inside the 10 yardline last week and Atlanta's Ray Buchanan, one of the best red-zone DCs in the league, will battle Mushin Muhammad.

  • Atlanta running game vs. Carolina front seven
    The Panthers were a little soft up the middle last week against Detroit and the Falcons have to get Oxendine and Hanspard room early in order for the intermediate passing game to have seams to exploit.

  • Atlanta DC Ronnie Bradford vs. Carolina No. 2 WR
    Jeffers stepped in for Carruth the past two weeks and caught 11 passes but he might not be able to play this week either. With the Falcons rolling coverage in Muhammad's direction, Jeffers or Donald Hayes must get the job done against man coverage.

    Carolina will win if...
  • They come away with six in the red-zone. The Panthers had three opportunities to jump ahead early last week but shoddy play from the offensive line and Beuerlein's inability to improvise killed this unit. Carolina must be able to run the football inside-the-20 if they are to win on the road this week.

  • The defense plays tough on first down. Carolina found themselves in too many third and short situations last week and were unable to defend the Lions' short passing game. With few big play receivers on Falcons' roster, John Marshall's front four must pressure the Falcons into getting the ball off quickly.

  • They get stronger play from their offensive line. Poor run blocking and an inability to pick up the blitz crippled this offense last week and they'll be facing another strong front four on Sunday. Rookie ROT Chris Terry didn't hold well last week against Detroit's Robert Porcher and he'll have to bounce back versus another Pro Bowler, Atlanta's Chuck Smith.

    Atlanta will win if...

  • They win the battle of field position. Special teams, especially PR Tim Dwight and P Dan Stryzinski, will be counted on to set up a short field for the Falcons offense. Atlanta simply doesn't have the firepower to consistently piece together 70+ yard drives.

  • The play with greater intensity on defense. Defensive Coordinator Rich Brooks' unit has been marred by blown assignments and lackluster play all season but they played with passion in Monday's loss at Pittsburgh. This game is an opportunity to turn things around at home against a offense that struggled to find a rhythm last week against the Lions.

  • They spread the ball on offense and keep the Panthers' defense guessing. Atlanta has looked predictable too often this season and a veteran defense like Carolina's will key on tendencies. Now that they can't control the clock on the ground, the Falcons must be a little more creative.

    The War Room edge
    The will be a hard-fought divisional game, with the more physical team coming out on top. The Falcons have played well below expectations this season but they have too much pride to just lie down. Carolina stumbled badly last week in a game they had to have, which proves they need to score points in order to win. Atlanta may be without Jamal Anderson but this defense remains in tact from last season. Atlanta wins a snoozer.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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