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Wednesday, October 27
War Room: Cowboys at Colts


Dallas offense vs. Indianapolis defense
COWBOYS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 11
Pass 17
Tot. Yds. 13
Scoring 4
Int's allowed 8
Sacks allowed 7
   
COLTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 15
vs. Pass 25
Total yds. allowed 21
No. of INTs 4
No. of Sacks 15
Turnover differential -10
Dallas QB Troy Aikman threw for 244 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions and ran for a touchdown against the Redskins last Sunday. Part of Aikman's stellar performance can be attributed to the play of the offensive line, which surrendered no sacks in Dallas' 38-20 victory. The Cowboy interior line dominated the Redskin DTs, allowing Dan Wilkinson and Dana Stubblefield a total of two tackles over the course of the game. OC Mark Stepnoski and ROG Everett McIver will have their work cut out for them this week against the Colts' defense, which as a unit is allowing 97.8 yards per game on the ground and is anchored by DT Ellis Johnson and DE Chad Bratzke, who have combined for 8.5 sacks on the season.

With Dallas' passing game hampered by the injury to WR Michael Irvin, look for the 'Boys to establish the run early with RB Emmitt Smith. If Dallas is successful on the ground, the Cowboys will use play-action fakes and look up top to WR Rocket Ismail, who has been a savior for the Dallas offense this season. The Cowboys should also look to get WR Jeff Ogden matched up against Indy RDC Tyrone Poole, and use Ogden's speed downfield for big plays. Irvin will be missed not only for his receiving ability, but also for his blocking, as it is his work against corners and safeties that often allows Emmitt Smith to get free.

The Indianapolis defense has been a pleasant surprise this season. The addition of Bratzke has given the Colts a much needed presence on the end against both the pass and the run, and the constant double-teaming that Bratzke faces has opened things up for his line mates. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has installed a rotation at the DT position, with back-ups Larry Chester and Bernard Whittington seeing considerable playing time. This rotation has kept the defensive line fresher, and has enabled the Colts to hold opponents to an average of less than 100 rushing yards per game.

The Colt front four will be challenged this week by Dallas' massive offensive line, and will need to use stunts and slants to avoid being pushed all over the field. If Bratzke and company can engage the Cowboy OL at the point of attack and not get driven off the football, it will allow the team's linebackers to come up and make plays. One guy who has been making a lot of plays is Indianapolis ROLB Mike Peterson, a rookie, who leads the team in tackles over the last three weeks since becoming a starter. LOLB Cornelius Bennett will be tested this week, as he will line up over Dallas TE David LaFleur, who is starting to come into his own as a receiver.

Indianapolis offense vs. Dallas defense
COLTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 23
Pass 2
Tot. Yds. 6
Scoring 3
Int's allowed 8
Sacks allowed 3
   
COWBOYS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 12
vs. Pass 16
Total yds. allowed 12
No. of INTs 8
No. of Sacks 15
Turnover differential -3
Most fans are looking forward to the highly anticipated match-up between Dallas RDC Deion Sanders and Indianapolis WR Marvin Harrison. Unfortunately for fans though, Harrison typically lines-up on the right side of the Colts' offensive sets, which will put him on the opposite side of the field from Sanders. The majority of the time Harrison will be matched up against Dallas LDC Kevin Smith -- a solid cover guy in his own right. When Harrison is lined up against Sanders, it should be electrifying. Harrison has shown that he can beat the NFL's best, victimizing Patriots' CB Ty Law for a big game earlier in the season, but Sanders is in a class by himself.

When Harrison isn't available, Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning is perfectly capable of finding his secondary receivers -- Manning has completed passes to nine different teammates this season. The Colts need to be effective throwing the football early because SS Darren Woodson will be forced to favor the pass and will be less effective in run support. When Sanders and Smith can play single coverage against opposing wideouts, Dallas' defense is much more effective against the run. With the pass established, rookie RB Edgerrin James could have a huge day against a quick, but undersized Dallas defense.

The Cowboys are a different team defensively with a healthy Deion Sanders in the line-up. With Sanders, the team can load up against the run without having to worry about getting burned deep. That will be a key this weekend, as Dallas has not faced a runner with speed and explosiveness comparable to Colts RB Edgerrin James. Run support will be necessary from both the linebackers and safeties, and this could leave Sanders and LDC Kevin Smith playing on an island. This is a position, however, to which the two have become accustomed over the years.

With RB James also emerging as a viable receiving threat, Dallas' OLBs will have to have solid games. James has shown the ability over the last few weeks to catch a short dump-pass and turn it into a huge gainer.

The play of the Dallas defensive line has surprised many to this point in the season. Converted DE Alonzo Spellman has been dominant at times, as he uses his strength to shed blocks at the line of scrimmage and get into the running lanes to slow down opposing ground games. He has also proven that he is a capable pass rusher up the middle. Second year DE Greg Ellis is also turning into a nice player, proving that he has the strength to stand up an offensive tackle and force running plays to bounce to the outside where his linebackers can make plays.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category DAL IND
Punt return avg. 10 17
Kickoff return avg. 19 16
Opp. punt return avg. 31 27
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 4 17
Time of possession 1 12
Deion Sanders, taken out of Sunday's game with a concussion, returned to seal the game for the Cowboys with a 70-yard punt return for a TD. When he is in the game, he is without question the most dangerous punt return man in the NFL. Colts rookie P Hunter Smith would be advised to kick the ball out of bounds when Sanders is back to return them -- lest he expose Indianapolis coverage units that have been spotty at times this season. Indianapolis rookie Terrence Wilkins hasn't done much on punts but his feet and instinct make him a force on punts. Dallas' punt cover teams are the worst in the league and they will be tested on Sunday.

Key matchups
  • Indianapolis RB Edgerrin James vs. Dallas OLBs Hambrick and Coakley
    James is becoming a legitimate threat as a receiver out of the backfield and the Cowboy OLB's must not only contain him in the run game and turn him inside, but also cover him out of the backfield. He is a very tough one-on-one matchup for them because of his speed and explosiveness.

  • Dallas RB Emmitt Smith vs. Indianapolis defensive front-seven
    The Cowboys continue to employ a ball-control offense with Emmitt Smith getting 25-30 carries per game. The best way to keep the Colts' explosive offense from scoring is to make them spectators in this game, and that's what an Emmitt Smith, ball-control attack will do.

  • Dallas DCs Sanders, Smith, and Williams vs. Indianapolis WR trio
    Indy is using a lot of multiple WR sets, and although the Dallas starting corners match up well, it gets interesting when they have to go to their nickel package. If big play WR Marvin Harrison is locked on to DC Deion Sanders, it should be a classic. Look for the Colts to attack Sanders even though he had a big game last week.

    Dallas will win if...
  • They go after the undersized Colts corners with their vertical passing game. Although the Cowboys are struggling at WR, the Colt DBs are small and can be exploited. Look for Troy Aikman to try to go over the top early in this game, even though the Cowboys will concentrate on Emmitt Smith and the run game.

  • Their secondary holds up in the nickel package. The Colts put a lot of pressure on a defense when they go to 3 WR's, especially if Edgerrin James is in the lineup. Dallas must not give up big plays on third-down and must key on Colts' WR Marvin Harrison.

  • RB Emmitt Smith has a 100-yard day. When Emmitt gets 25-30 carries and 100 yards, the Cowboys control the football, and that's even more important against a quick-strike Colts offense. By running the football successfully, Dallas will limit the Colts' offensive possessions, which really plays into their favor.

    Indianapolis will win if...

  • They go right after the Dallas secondary in their nickel passing game. The Cowboys are not particularly deep in the secondary, and when Indy goes to 3 and 4 WR's, it is a tough matchup for the Cowboys. Look for the Colts to attack DC Deion Sanders and try to get WR Marvin Harrison deep early in this game.

  • They get RB Edgerrin James involved in the perimeter passing game. James is a nightmare matchup RB when he gets outside, and if the Cowboys try to cover him with a linebacker, it's no contest. He needs to start getting the production in the passing game that Marshall Faulk had a year ago in this offense.

  • They stop RB Emmitt Smith and the Cowboy run game. The Cowboys will try to control the football and the clock in this game in an attempt to keep the ball out of the Colts' hands. The Indy defense must force the Cowboys into a lot of 3-and-outs and eliminate a lot of long drives that eat up the clock.

    The War Room edge
    Both of these teams are playing solid football right now, but the Colts have a lot of confidence in their passing game and their home crowd will give them a real boost. Look for Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison to connect again and Edgerrin James to also have a big day, as the Colts beat the Cowboys at home in one of their more memorable wins in recent memory.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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