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Wednesday, October 27
War Room: Jaguars at Bengals


Jacksonville offense vs. Cincinnati defense
JAGUARS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 3
Pass 21
Tot. Yds. 14
Scoring 9
Int's allowed 4
Sacks allowed 7
   
BENGALS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 14
vs. Pass 20
Total yds. allowed 16
No. of INTs 3
No. of Sacks 15
Turnover differential -13
The bye week probably could not have come at a better time for the Jaguars. Mark Brunell has had time to rest, while the entire offense has been able to go back and look at some film. The Jaguars, originally touted as one of the most balanced offenses and toughest teams to defend against in the league, rank third in the NFL in rushing (133.3 yards per game) and 20th passing (205.5 yards per game). This is the week, however, that the Jaguars will finally put it all together.

Cincinnati would like to play aggressive defensively, focusing on stopping the run with the healthy return of RB Fred Taylor, but the Bengals will have to be careful not to get burnt in doing so. Teams have been able to double team WR Jimmy Smith on the outside without Taylor in the lineup because of Taylor's ability to break contain and pick up so much yardage backside. James Stewart has been extremely effective in Taylor's absence, but Stewart does not have the same game-breaking ability that defenses must protect themselves against.

Now that TE Kyle Brady has proven himself as reliable receivers in the middle of the field, along with Taylor and Stewart out of the backfield, the Bengals are going to have to play more zone coverage underneath instead of rushing the passer.

SS Myron Bell will play closer to the line of scrimmage than usual, but will be there to spy the running back. On passing downs, Bell will be responsible for covering the back out of the backfield, which leaves FS Corey Hall to give help to his corners in the deep third. Seeing that Smith is the bigger deep threat of the two Jacksonville receivers, it would seem natural for Hall to cheat to Smith's side. However, CB Artrell Hawkins, the team's top cover corner, will be matched up with Smith, and the Bengals are going to be forced to give help on the far side to CB Roosevelt Blackmon, who is matched up against Keenan McCardell. Hawkins will have to play off the line of scrimmage, something that he is not accustomed to doing, and give Smith room underneath because he knows he will have little help behind him.

The outside linebacker, Adrian Ross, will be responsible for reading the pass and getting into the flats on crossing routes and short slants. Blackmon, opposite Hawkins, will press McCardell and take away everything underneath, knowing that Hall is rolled over to his side and can help over the top. The key to playing this man/zone is great communication underneath and for Hawkins to give up space underneath instead of letting Smith by him.

Cincinnati offense vs. Jacksonville defense
BENGALS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 6
Pass 23
Tot. Yds. 18
Scoring 29
Int's allowed 7
Sacks allowed 23
   
JAGUARS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 13
vs. Pass 1
Total yds. allowed 1
No. of INTs 8
No. of Sacks 22
Turnover differential +4
A disappointing season for the Cincinnati offense is about to get worse. RB Corey Dillon and QB Akili Smith had to leave last week's game, and will play nicked up versus one of the top overall defenses in the NFL.

On top of heading into Sunday's game with a banged up quarterback and running back, OG Brian DeMarco (elbow) and Willie Anderson (knee) will be out for the Jacksonville game. What this does is add pressure on the young quarterback because the Bengals are going to struggle to run the ball. Ideally, Cincinnati would like to run the ball 35-40 times against the Jaguars to control the clock and keep the Jacksonville offense on the sideline. Instead, the Bengals are going to look to go up top with the ball early on, trying to catch the Jaguars out of position.

Cincinnati has excellent receivers that can make the plays down the field, but have not been productive because of the quarterback situation as well as their inability to run sharp routes and break from man-to-man coverage. Carl Pickens and Darnay Scott will look to stretch the field on Sunday by running a lot of deep slants and post corner routes.

The key for the Bengals will be the ability of Akili Smith to sit in the pocket and wait for his receiver to come out of their breaks. Smith is going to be under tremendous pressure due to the Jaguars ability to get to the quarterback and their lack of respect for the Bengal passing game.

The biggest reason for Jacksonville's turnaround defensively this season has been the pass rush, which now ranks 4th in the league with 22 sacks in six games (one behind the leaders). The difference for the unit this year has been the aggressive style of play. The defensive line is twisting and stunting, while the linebackers are coming on the blitz with great consistency.

DT Larry Smith has been a big boost for the unit. His quickness and moves in pass rush give the team a great presence inside in nickel situations. However, the fact that the corners have been able to play a lot of man-to-man coverage without getting burnt is the reason that Capers' defense has been so effective. CB's Fernando Bryant and Aaron Beasley are dominating most of their matchups off the line of scrimmage and have been able to gamble and play more bump and run because veteran Carnell Lake is behind them in coverage.

The communication of the secondary, for such a young unit, has been extremely impressive. The corners seem to know when they can take risks and when to back off, and in the same breath, Lake always seems to be in the right place at the right time. Of course, this is the design of the scheme, but for such an inexperienced unit to show such great communication is rare.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category JAC CIN
Punt return avg. 18 16
Kickoff return avg. 28 7
Opp. punt return avg. 11 29
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 27 2
Time of possession 3 9
PK Mike Hollis has been close to perfect on the season, nailing 16-of-17 attempts with a long of 50-yards. Brian Barker has also been spectacular, dropping 12-of-32 punts inside the opponents twenty-yard line with an average of 44.3-yards per punt. PR Reggie Barlow has been a bit disappointing, averaging just 8.7-yards per return with a long of just 29 yards. Another concern for the Jaguars is their kickoff coverage unit that is averaging 24.6 yards allowed per return.

Tremaine Mack has burst back onto the scene as a return man, averaging 24.8-yards per kickoff return. The Bengals missed his production, but they have been unable to take advantage of the field position he has offering since returning. Will Brice was forced to attempt another eight punts last Sunday, but averaged just 35.8-yards, landing two inside the twenty-yard line.

Key matchups
  • Jacksonville WR Keenan McCardell vs. Cincinnati CB Roosevelt Blackmon
    Blackmon won the starting cornerback job with his impressive coverage ability, but had trouble last week turning and running with receivers. The Jaguars will try to get McCardell vertical off of the playaction in hopes that the safety will take false step, leaving Blackmon alone in coverage down the field with McCardell.

  • Jacksonville OGs Ben Coleman and Rich Tylski vs. Cincinnati ILBs Takeo Spikes and Brian Simmons
    The Bengals are going to use the inside linebackers to get a heavy rush on the injured Mark Brunell. OC John Wade is going to have his hands full with NT Oliver Gibson, so the OG's are going to be responsible for picking up the linebackers on the blitz. Coleman and Tylski are hard-nosed players with great strength, but quickness is a concern. If Spikes and Simmons are able to beat them off the line on the blitz, the Bengals will get great pressure on the quarterback all afternoon.

  • Cincinnati OT Rod Jones vs. Jacksonville DE Tony Brackens
    Brackens has had a dominating season to this point, collecting six sacks in five games. He has used a combination of strength and quickness to beat opposing offensive tackles, and has been excellent in pursuit. Sunday, Jones will look to cut Brakens off and force him wide to neutralize his speed. The one advantage Brackens has in this matchup is his strength. Jones will be able to reach the defensive end, but he will have trouble locking onto him and riding Brackens out.

    Jacksonville will win if...
  • The offense can run the ball to set up the pass. The Jaguars have been winning games without any balance in their offense, which is supposed to be the strong suit. The Jaguars, 4th ranked run game, should be able to run against the 17th ranked run-defense in the league, and with the healthy return of QB Mark Brunell, Jacksonville needs to be able to run playaction effectively and pick on the Bengals decimated secondary.

  • The Jaguar receivers use their speed to get vertical. Cincinnati's secondary has struggled all season, but especially versus "home run threat" receivers. One way to get the passing game untracked is to connect on a couple of big plays down the field, building everyone's confidence.

  • The defense stays aggressive and attacks the rookie quarterback. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers has done an excellent job of matching his personnel with his aggressive style of coaching. The Jaguars have been getting after opponents with an array of stunts, blitzes and sets up front that have put extreme pressure on team's quarterbacks to make split second decisions with the ball. QB Akili Smith is a talented athlete and quarterback, but still makes mistakes when he is forced to make quick decisions.

    Cincinnati will win if...

  • They take some risks on offense by throwing the ball down field. At this point in the season for Cincinnati, it is time to change up the scheme some and play more aggressive. The Bengals have two excellent receivers that do a great job of getting vertical and making plays in the air. With a rookie quarterback and a 1-5 record, coach Bruce Coslet needs to open things up more instead of playing "not to lose" every week.

  • The defense devotes three and even four men on the blitz on obvious passing downs. Cincinnati has had trouble versus the pass all season because of a weak secondary, so the best way to combat the problem is to get excellent pressure on the quarterback. Mark Brunell is back as the starter, but he is still aching, and needs to be hurried and knocked down.

  • NT Oliver Gibson holds his ground and makes an impact upfront. The Bengals are going to be blitzing the inside linebackers a lot on Sunday to create a solid rush and take some pressure off of the secondary. If Gibson is able to take up OC John Wade's attention and even force some guard help, it will create more lanes for the blitz and cause the Jaguars to keep running backs in to protect Brunell.

    The War Room edge
    The Jaguars could not have picked a better team to face this Sunday as they look to reestablish the balance on offense versus the Bengals much-maligned secondary. Jacksonville will get to rookie QB Akili Smith with regualarity on Sunday and force him into too many costly mistakes. The Jaguar defense is going to put the offense in great position to be aggressive in the passing game and work the ball to its receivers down the field. Brunell is banged up, but this is the perfect opportunity to reclaim himself as the versatile starting quarterback in Jacksonville. This one could get ugly as the Jaguars finally start running on all cylinders offensively.

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