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Wednesday, October 27
War Room: Dolphins at Raiders


Miami offense vs. Oakland defense
DOLPHINS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 18
Pass 11
Tot. Yds. 11
Scoring 5
Int's allowed 7
Sacks allowed 12
   
RAIDERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 8
vs. Pass 24
Total yds. allowed 17
No. of INTs 13
No. of Sacks 19
Turnover differential 0
With Dan Marino out indefinitely and looking for second opinions from doctors in California, the Dolphins are forced to settle for Damon Huard as their starting quarterback. Huard has been impressive in the fact that he has not turned the ball over a ton of times and he has been mobile enough to get out of trouble in the pocket. Even more impressive is that Huard will take the sack instead of throwing into coverage. Nonetheless, the Dolphin offense is just a shell of its former self with Huard behind center. It is obvious that Jimmy Johnson is playing it close to the vest, conservatively calling plays that Huard is comfortable with and has executed with success in practice. The problem with this scenario is that defenses understand that Huard is not going to be asked to throw the ball 35 times or throw it much downfield, so coordinators are able to prepare accordingly.

The Raiders should thrive against the conservative Dolphins offense because it allows them to match up their corners, Eric Allen and Charles Woodson, in single man coverage, allowing the Oakland to stack eight men in the box to stymie the run and get after the inexperienced quarterback. Defensive coordinator Willie Shaw will do a lot of interesting things up front to put pressure on Huard and to also diversify his reads. Shaw will run a lot of wide stunts and blitz his linebackers off the edge on the strong side to split the tight end and offensive tackle. The Raiders also love to get WLB K.D. Williams up the field to rush the passer, which will allow Shaw to drop DE's James Harris or Lance Johnstone in coverage out on the flats.

Huard has had some trouble when teams zone blitz, because he has been strictly reading the cornerbacks who have been playing seven-to-eight yards off the receiver. When he sees this he has been signaling to his receiver to run a quick hitch or slant, but what he does not realize is that the scheme is designed to lure him into the quick throw, knowing that either a defensive end or linebacker is going to break for the flat on the snap of the ball.

Because of Huard's troubles reading coverages and making the throws, Miami is going to work diligently to establish the running game, even though the Raiders are prepared to defend against it. Miami is overmatched on the interior line against DT Darryl Russell and Russell Maryland, but the one thing to notice when watching film on the Raiders defense is that their linebackers tend to get out of position. The Dolphins are going to be able to run a lot of counter and cutbacks on the Raiders because their linebacking corps is active to a fault. The outside linebackers, Williams and Richard Harvey, explode upfield and leave cutback lanes as long as the offensive tackles are able to ride them wide. The key for the Dolphins running attack will be to get excellent downfield blocking from the offensive center and the wide receivers, and for the offensive tackles, Richmond Webb and James Brown, to force everything wide and stick with their backside blocks.

Oakland offense vs. Miami defense
RAIDERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 1
Pass 9
Tot. Yds. 3
Scoring 14
Int's allowed 5
Sacks allowed 21
   
DOLPHINS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 3
vs. Pass 8
Total yds. allowed 4
No. of INTs 7
No. of Sacks 13
Turnover differential -5
With RB Tyrone Wheatley out of Sunday's lineup and QB Rich Gannon playing with a broken wrist, the Oakland Raiders are not going to be able to do what has been so successful for them up to this point. Coach Jon Gruden seemingly found the correct personnel to run the smash-mouth type of offense that would sustain drives and take advantage of great field position from its defense. This team is built around a stingy defense, but without Wheatley pounding the ball between the tackles, the Raiders are back to an offense remininscent of a year ago -- marred with inconsistencies and breakdowns.

Gruden is going to have to spread the ball around more offensively and use more of a short passing game as the low-risk approach to the offense. Last week, with Wheatley missing a good portion of the game, the Raiders offense was unable to run down the clock by running the ball effectively inside. Oakland was forced to open things up more and utilize Gannon's mobility and playmaking skills to move the ball down the field. With a broken left wrist, Gannon is going to have to be more conservative, which means the offense needs to find a way to operate without its two most important weapons. The Dolphins are sure to take advantage of the Raiders misfortune by attacking the quarterback with a lot of eight-man fronts. Miami's speed on defense is going to present a lot of problems for the Raiders. With Wheatley out of the lineup, Napoleon Kaufman becomes the premier back again. Kaufman is a speedster at 170 pounds, but his speed will be neutralized against Miami.

The Dolphins will lock their corners onto the Raider receivers in man-to-man coverage, leaving the FS back in the deep zone to give safety support. Up front, the Dolphin DT's Tim Bowens and Darryl Gardener do an excellent job of occupying blockers and allowing MLB Zach Thomas to roam free. Thomas shows an uncanny knack for finding the open blitz lanes and attacking it at the exact time it clears. Rich Gannon is going to have to be able to get rid of the ball on a lot of three-step drops to his hot receivers. James Jett and Tim Brown will do a lot of motioning into crossing routes and quick slants that open up right away. If they get jammed off the line of scrimmage, Gannon will be forced to hit his tight end, Ricky Dudley, off the line of scrimmage, or Kaufman out of the backfield.

The biggest key in this game is the way Gannon is able to deal with the pressure and speed of Miami's defense. Jimmy Johnson knows that the Raiders are hurting on offense and will be looking to exploit their weaknesses. Without a steady inside run game, Oakland is going to have to find a way to use the passing game as a low-risk form of moving the ball down the field and sustaining drives.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category MIA OAK
Punt return avg. 4 9
Kickoff return avg. 2 25
Opp. punt return avg. 26 25
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 20 21
Time of possession 2 4
PK Olindo Mare is off to one of the most impressive seasons a kicker can have. Mare is 22-of-23 on field goal with a long of 53. Through just seven games, Mare has 76 points. Brock Marion has given the return team a boost, averaging 27.8-yards per kickoff return with a long of 93 yards. The concern for the Dolphins special teams is the play of its kickoff return team, which is averaging 22.7 yards per return and has already given up a touchdown.

Mike Husted is having a tough start to the 1999 season for the Raiders, missing 5 of his first 15 field goal attempts. Napoleon Kaufman has been carrying the ball less as a running back so he should be more rested to return kicks, but his production has not been at the level originally expected. Kaufman is averaging just 21.6-yards per return, which is 18th out of 21 return men with 11 or more carries in the league.

Key matchups
  • Miami RB Cecil Collins vs. Oakland FS Eric Turner
    The Raiders defensive scheme is so aggressive on the front side that backs have been able to pick up yardage when cutting back. One thing the rookie Collins has been impressive doing is coming to a halt, seeing the lanes develop and cutting back. FS Eric Turner is responsible for the cutback lane versus the run, and when he is unable to make the play in the hole there is lots of daylight for the back. There will be a few crucial one-on-one tackles that Turner will have to make in order to save the Raiders from giving up a big chunk of yardage.

  • Miami LG Kevin Gogan vs. Oakland DT Darryl Russell
    Gogan is still making the transition from the right side of the line to the left, where he has not played since 1991. It is obvious that Gogan's footwork is off, and he has been giving up one or two big plays each game. Russell, a dominating defensive tackle with great quickness and strength, should be able to take advantage of Gogan's occasional false steps.

  • Oakland TE Rickey Dudley vs. Miami OLB Robert Jones
    Dudley should be able to use his speed and receiver skills to take advantage of this mismatch. Jones is an excellent athlete, but struggles at times in coverage. The Dolphins will be forced to use the linebacker to cover the tight end, for fear that if they use a safety in coverage underneath, the Raiders will use their speedy receivers to exploit the secondary in the deep third.

    Miami will win if...
  • Simplify some of the coverage reads for Damon Huard. Huard has been picked off twice in the last two games when teams back their corners off and drop either a linebacker or a safety into the flat. The Dolphins are going to have to abridge some of the reads on the outside until Huard becomes more familiar with the offense and understands which looks are indicators.

  • Get receivers the ball right off the line of scrimmage. The best way to combat the Raiders excellent corners is to run a lot of motions and to get a lot of quick hits out of the passing game. This will force Oakland's corners to play more aggressive at the line of scrimmage as the game goes on, and may open up some things downfield.

  • Protect MLB Zach Thamas in the middle. The Raiders have been successful running the ball inside the tackles around 20-25 times per game. Miami should stack up well inside, but DT's Darryl Gardener and Tim Bowens need to keep offensive guards and the center from getting a clear shot at Thomas. Thomas is so successful at his position because of his mobility and his adeptness at shedding the blocker, but when lineman are able to lock on the undersized Thomas, his speed and athleticism become neutralized.

    Oakland will win if...

  • The Raider receivers stay active downfield. QB Rich Gannon has done an excellent job using his mobility to create second opportunities for the offense. Tim Brown and James Jett are lightening fast receivers, but need to do a better job of staying with the quarterback and coming back to the ball on broken plays.

  • QB Rich Gannon can use Miami's upfield rush to his advantage. The Dolphins have an explosive defensive front seven that does a remarkable job of getting upfield. Sometimes, however, quarterbacks are able to use that pass rush to create a pocket in the middle, or even tuck the ball and take off with it. Gannon is a veteran quarterback with good mobility and a sense of the rush. He needs to step up in the pocket, creating greater throwing lanes and also giving him a shot to pull the ball down and get up the field with it on the ground.

  • The defense uses an extra man in rush on passing downs. QB Damon Huard has been poised under pressure, but he has also taken a lot of sacks. With such great cornerbacks, the Raiders can afford to use an extra man on the blitz and really attack the inexperienced quarterback. The Raiders will run a lot of zone blitzes, bringing the linebackers and safeties on the blitz while dropping one-or-two lineman in coverage to confuse Huard.

    The War Room edge
    This matchup features two of the top corner tandems in the NFL, which has become undoubtedly the most important position in the league today. The offensive strategy will be to shorten the passing game and get the receivers the ball right off the line of scrimmage, knowing that the defense has the capability to bring the rush with the receivers blanketed in single-man coverage. Oakland has the advantage on Sunday because they have an experienced quarterback who has proven capable of beating the blitz in the air or by tucking the ball and taking off. This will be a low scoring affair, but do not be surprised if the Raider pull the upset because of their experience on offense and ability to handle the pass rush.

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