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Wednesday, October 27
War Room: Vikings at Broncos


Minnesota offense vs. Denver defense
VIKINGS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 19
Pass 3
Tot. Yds. 4
Scoring 10
Int's allowed 11
Sacks allowed 18
   
BRONCOS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 22
vs. Pass 6
Total yds. allowed 11
No. of INTs 8
No. of Sacks 23
Turnover differential -17
The insertion of QB Jeff George paid immediate dividends for the Vikings in his first start, as he completed 15-of-28 passes for 250 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Offensive coordinator Ray Sherman's offense has scored a touchdown in half their series with George, as opposed to once in every five with Cunningham. George's ability to check out of certain plays and read defenses is making life easier on the entire offensive unit. With Cunningham at the helm, Minnesota's offensive line was criticized for not playing up to last year's level but the blame should have fallen partly on the quarterback. Sure, the offensive line was not playing up to its capabilities but Cunningham's propensity to hang onto the football too long was the main reason behind the team's high sack total.

Opponents have blitzed the Vikings heavily all season but don't expect defensive coordinator Greg Robinson to be overly aggressive with George at quarterback. The Broncos will come out with a lot of different looks up front and in coverage in order to rattle George, who was indoctrinated into the Vikings' offense only six months ago. The Broncos, who are holding opponents to a microscopic 172.6 yards per game through the air, will vary up their man and zone coverages but they aren't afraid to leave either of their DCs on an island.

Look for Denver to attack Minnesota the same way they did New England last week. The Broncos will drop as many as seven men into coverage and force George to thread the ball into his receivers. When the Vikings spread the field, look for nickel RB Moe Williams to slip out of the backfield and make a couple of plays. Without Robert Smith in the lineup, Williams is now the team's change-of-pace option and can make some plays if he's isolated on a linebacker, especially one that struggles a bit in coverage like MLB Al Wilson.

RB Leroy Hoard stepped in for Smith and notched his first 100-yard game in nearly three seasons, although an open-field fumble irked coach Dennis Green. The Vikings were forced to play without TEs Jimmy Kleinsasser and Carlester Crumpler last week, which limited their ability to run the football effectively in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Both players will be back this week and should allow George a full compliment of personnel options. Denver's run defense suffered last week with a less attacking scheme. New England's below average running game totaled 133 yards last week, so look for the Vikings to mix it up between Hoard and Williams. One thing the Broncos must keep in the back of their collective mind: the Vikings are 9-2 in games which Hoard has started for Smith.

Denver offense vs. Minnesota defense
BRONCOS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 15
Pass 10
Tot. Yds. 10
Scoring 20
Int's allowed 10
Sacks allowed 12
   
VIKINGS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 16
vs. Pass 29
Total yds. allowed 26
No. of INTs 3
nO. of Sacks 16
Turnover differential -11
Despite their recent injuries on offense, last week's loss to New England cannot be placed on the newcomers. QB Brian Griese was sharp for the second straight week, completing 62 percent of his passes for 913 yards since he reclaimed his starter's job by default from injured Bubby Brister three weeks ago. Griese, who has received tremendous protection from his offensive line (12 sacks in six games), is spreading the ball around well but his go-to guy has been WR Ed McCaffrey.

McCaffrey and fellow wideout Rod Smith should have big afternoons against a Vikings pass defense that has been shredded for 248.3 yards per game. Minnesota is scrambling to find help in their nickel and dime packages because ex-starter Ramos McDonald unexpectedly left the team prior to last week's game against San Francisco and Torrian Gray was put on injured reserve this week.

Of Minnesota's three interceptions, only one is by a member of the secondary -- a stat that underscores how suspect this unit really is. What this means is that the Vikings have been forced to play much more conservative on defense this season without the security of a high-scoring offense. Minnesota's starting cornerbacks combined for 11 interceptions last season and would have to go on a record-setting pace to reach that figure this season.

The Broncos receivers will be working against much larger cushions than they are used to so they must be patient and take what the defense gives them underneath. The only way the Broncos will be able to strike deep on Sunday is if Griese is accurate early on, which might force more aggressive coverage.

The success and running style of RB Olandis Gary hasn't forced offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak to alter his playbook. Although he's clearly not the player that Terrell Davis is, Gary's slashing style is very similar to his predecessor's and the offensive line has had very little adjusting to get used to. Since he took over three games ago, Gary is averaging over a half yard better per carry (3.6) than Davis (3.1).

The Vikings recent bend-but-don't-break defensive philosophy doesn't fit this group of players. They need to start attacking the football the same way they did a year ago, which could happen this week if George and the offense click for a third straight week. It's more than a coincidence that the Vikings haven't allowed an offensive touchdown in the past nine quarters -- six of which were with George leading the offense.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category MIN DEN
Punt return avg. 31 29
Kickoff return avg. 10 5
Opp. punt return avg. 12 30
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 13 12
Time of possession 24 15
Broncos RS Chris Watson is questionable for the third straight week, and while George Coghill and John Avery have done an adequate job, this team needs his big-play ability. No one can blame PK Jason Elam for missing a 59-yarder last week. Minnesota RS David Palmer hasn't provided the spark he has in past years and his 5.4 average on punts is starting to concern the coaching staff. Starting OLB Dwayne Rudd played a huge role in last week's win by blocking a punt that led to a touchdown and drawing a holding penalty in the endzone that resulted in a safety. Vikings P Mitch Berger, who nailed a 75-yarder last week, will enjoy the thin air at Mile High.

Key matchups
  • Minnesota LDE John Randle vs. Denver ROT Matt Lepsis
    Opponents have targeted Lepsis as the weak link of the Broncos' line all season. Randle had been quiet all season despite the additions of Doleman and Ball but his crucial interception helped put points on the board late in the first half last week.

  • Denver WR Ed McCaffrey vs. Minnesota DC Jimmy Hitchcock
    McCaffrey has emerged as Denver's go-to weapon and Hitchcock's biggest responsibility will be to eliminate yards after the catch. Hitchcock, who can't afford to gamble wrong on Sunday, should feel confident after last week's stellar outing.

  • Minnesota RB Leroy Hoard vs. Denver MLB Al Wilson
    A Hoard fumble led directly to a Niner touchdown last week, but he also ran hard between the tackles. Wilson must fill the gaps quickly against a north-and-south runner like Hoard.

    Minnesota will win if...
  • They keep the pressure on the Broncos' secondary. QB George had plenty of time to throw against the Niners last week and he will be more comfortable on Sunday with a game under his belt. Denver's secondary has played better the past three weeks because they are minimizing penalties and getting better man coverage from DC Carter.

  • They run the football as effectively as they did last week. Without Robert Smith, offensive coordinator Ray Sherman called a creative game and got people like Moe Williams and Randy Moss involved in the run game. Denver must get solid play from its front seven because SS Eric Brown will be used primarily as a deep defender.

  • Their secondary eliminates big plays in the passing game. Aside from a 47-yard screen pass, the Vikings did an excellent job of controlling the Niners' three-receiver sets a week ago. They have been victimized by too many big plays all season and players like McCaffrey, Smith, and Chamberlain are tough to bring down in the open field. Limiting yards after the catch will be key for Foge Fazio's defense.

    Denver will win if...

  • They put pressure on George. Denver dropped seven people into coverage with great frequency last week, giving New England's Drew Bledsoe too much time to throw. George will kill them if he has time to sit back and make his reads.

  • RB Gary continues to be productive. Gary's effectiveness the past two weeks has established the play-action pass for Griese and has given the Bronco defense ample rest. Derek Loville returns this week and will spell Gary, who has been overworked the past two games. Denver needs to run the football, control the clock, and keep Minnesota's offense off the field.

  • They render the Vikings' offense one-dimensional. Minnesota is at its best when they establish balance and keep defenses on their heels. Look for Denver to stack the run and blitz early in order to rattle George, who has very little game experience the past two years.

    The War Room edge
    Jeff George has this offense clicking again and it's too early for his head to figure into things. The Broncos are a tough team to figure out because of their inconsistency on defense. One week they'll dominate the Packers and the next they'll be lit up by Terry Allen and the Patriots. One thing is certain; the elements at Mile High Stadium will play a factor. Whichever team can run the football and wear out the opposing defense will prevail. While he is no Terrell Davis, the Broncos are formidable with Olandis Gary in the backfield. Gary outperforms Leroy Hoard. Broncos win a close one.

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