Wednesday, October 27
The War Room
San Diego offense vs. Kansas City defense
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CHARGERS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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30
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Pass
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30
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Tot. Yds.
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28
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Scoring
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19
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Int's allowed
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14
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Sacks allowed
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16
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CHIEFS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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6
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vs. Pass
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14
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Total yds. allowed
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10
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No. of INTs
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11
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No. of Sacks
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12
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Turnover differential
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+4
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The struggling Chargers offense received more bad news this week when banged up RB Natrone Means was forced to undergo knee surgery. Means was largely ineffective last week (12 carries, 28 yards) because he failed to run with his eyes and the team might actually be better off with the healthy trio of Kenny Bynum, Tremayne Stephens, and third-down specialist Terrell Fletcher.
In their Week 3 meeting, the Chiefs got an excellent effort from their front four as they held the Chargers to just 2.4 yards per carry. LDT Chester McGlockton continues to get consistent penetration and should be able to handle wide body DeMingo Graham, who was completely manhandled last week against Green Bay. The Chargers need to run the football effectively to set up the play-action passing game but look for them to use Fletcher on screens and quick dump-offs if that doesn't happen early on. San Diego had great success with Fletcher in a receiving role at the end of last season and the Chiefs cannot expect OLB Donnie Edwards to stay with him, regardless of how well he's played this season.
It's back to the drawing board for coach Mike Riley after last week's six-interception debacle. Riley must decide who's the right man to lead his team. Erik Kramer led the team to three straight wins but Harbaugh's mobility compensates for the team's protection problems. Whichever quarterback Riley chooses, the chosen will definitely enjoy something this unit has lacked all season -- a playmaking wide receiver. Charlie Jones, who has missed the entire season with a hip injury, returns on Sunday and should at least bring the threat of an occasional deep pass. San Diego's passing game has become so predictable that the Packers felt all they needed to do was stop TE Freddie Jones.
Kansas City's defense fed off turnovers last week, returning two interceptions for scores. The Chiefs' secondary, especially its top three DCs, is playing outstanding football. James Hasty's influence is noticeably wearing off on nickel back Eric Warfield, who is passing the test every week when opponents target him. Despite three pass interference calls last week, LDC Chris Dishman is playing the type of in-your-face defense that coach Gunther Cunningham wants out of his club. The Chiefs are confident these three players will be able to handle any receiver combination that the Chargers put on the field so look for Cunningham to increase his blitz calls. Kansas City put good heat on Baltimore's QB Stoney Case last week and forced some poor throws but they were held without a sack nonetheless. The guy to watch is MLB Marvcus Patton, whose team-high three sacks have come on delayed blitzes behind McGlockton's upfield push.
Kansas City offense vs. San Diego defense
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CHIEFS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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4
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Pass
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24
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Tot. Yds.
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17
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Scoring
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8
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Int's allowed
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7
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Sacks allowed
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7
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CHARGERS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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4
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vs. Pass
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15
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Total yds. allowed
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8
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No. of INTs
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9
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No. of Sacks
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14
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Turnover differential
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-5
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It might not be the most exciting brand of football but Cunningham's grind-it-out style fits his personnel. The Chiefs' RB-by-committee approach is underscored by the fact that of the team's top four backs, none have less than 163 yards or more than 196. The most impressive aspect of their run game has been the ability of the offensive line to wear down defenses in the second half. Despite some pretty ugly first half numbers (18 carries, 32 yards), the Chiefs stuck to their game plan last week and eventually posted 53 of their 112 rushing yards in the fourth quarter. RB Bam Morris was the main beneficiary of the Ravens' sluggish defense, as he averaged over ten yards per carry on the final drive. Although he's been slowed by a sore hip, look for speed back Rashaan Shehee to get plenty of reps because his 86-yard effort in the first meeting was the closest an opposing RB has come to breaking the 100-yard mark against the Chargers in almost two years.
The Chiefs will have another difficult time against a Chargers run defense that is holding opponents to just 2.9 yards per carry. San Diego's blitz-heavy approach took away from their run defense last week, as the Packers rang up 4.6 per rush. Without the fear of Brett Favre in them, look for Joe Pascale's defense to play straight up this week in their gap-control scheme. San Diego will likely again be without the services of SS Rodney Harrison. His replacement, Greg Jackson, is not nearly as disruptive against the run and ended with only three tackles last week.
Kansas City's low-risk passing game is predicated on smart play from QB Elvis Grbac. Though they went three-and-out on eight of their 12 possessions last week against the Ravens, Grbac made good decisions with the football and he used TE Tony Gonzalez effectively in the red-zone and on third down. The Chiefs cannot afford to fall into the same pass-happy trap they did in their Week 3 contest, in which Grbac completed just 19-of-40 attempts and threw four interceptions. Though the Chiefs' protection has improved markedly since the first meeting, Grbac will make costly mistakes against this defense if he is made the focal point. The Chargers were burned on the blitz often last week because Favre was able to locate the vacated areas with ease. San Diego must get better pressure from their front four so that their back-seven isn't forced to hold its coverage too long.
Special teams
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NFL RANK
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Category
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SD
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KC
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Punt return avg.
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26
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7
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Kickoff return avg.
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29
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21
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Opp. punt return avg.
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21
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4
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Opp. kickoff ret. avg.
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29
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5
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Time of possession
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10
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8
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The battle for field position will be crucial in such an evenly matched game and this one could come down to which team has the fewer breakdowns in coverage. Kansas City has the best all-around coverage teams in the league and they are a big reason the Chiefs are winning the close ones. The Chargers averaged 24.3 per kickoff return last week and Tremayne Stephens had a 94-yard score reduced to just 22 yards by a holding penalty. San Diego must contain return specialist Tamarick Vanover, who had a 28-yard punt return in the first meeting. Both teams have veteran kickers that are used to making the big kick but San Diego's John Carney should ask New England's Adam Vinatieri what it's like to attempt a game-winner in Arrowhead.
Key matchups
Kansas City LOT Glenn Parker vs. San Diego RDE Raylee Johnson
Chiefs' rookie John Tait and veteran Marcus Spears held up fairly well last week against the Ravens' Michael McCrary but Parker will return this week. The Chargers will try to force the issue with Parker by using corner and safety blitzes.
San Diego OLB Lew Bush vs. Kansas City TE Tony Gonzalez
The Chiefs' ground-control attack revolves around crucial third down throws to Gonzalez and Bush can be thrown on. If Gonzalez works the field vertically, Bush must get help from FS Dumas.
San Diego TE Freddie Jones vs. Kansas City OLB Donnie Edwards
If Harbaugh starts at quarterback, Jones will be worked all day. Edwards, who had a huge INT last week against Baltimore, is one of the few linebackers in the league that matches up well with Jones.
Kansas City will win if...
DC's Hasty and Dishman can shut down the Chargers WRs. There is no way the Chargers should be able to threaten the perimeter of the Chiefs defense, which will allow Gunther Cunningham to take some chances with an aggressive scheme.
They don't commit costly turnovers and give the struggling Chargers offense a short field to work with. San Diego has not shown the ability to do anything offensively except throw interceptions.
They get solid play from their interior OL. The Chargers know the Chiefs want to run the football and will load up inside to stop them. Grunhard & Co. must pickup Seau on his inside run blitzes.
Kansas City will win if...
The offense gets better production in the red zone. They were horrible last week against Green Bay, as QB Kramer threw two interceptions. Kramer moved his team between the 20s but the lack of running game killed them when it counted.
They don't take any critical penalties. Between pass interference calls and an illegal block that negated a kickoff return touchdown, the Chargers simply killed themselves last week. With the talent level this team has offensively the margin for error is very small.
Their defense controls the tempo of the game. Playing on the road in Arrowhead is tough on opposing offenses so it is imperative the Chargers' defense stops the run and wins the field position battle.
The War Room edge
This promises to be a low-scoring, physical game between two struggling offenses. While Chiefs QB Elvis Grbac is not winning games for his team, at least he's not losing any. San Diego's passing duo of Kramer and Harbaugh threw six interceptions last week against a relatively soft Packer pass defense. The only difference between these two teams is the ground game. Kansas City is having enough success to win games and the Chargers Natrone Means is clearly affected by his leg injuries. Chiefs take control of the division at 5-3.
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