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Wednesday, October 27
War Room: Buccaneers at Lions

The War Room

Tampa Bay offense vs. Detroit defense

BUCCANEERS OFFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:
Run 5

Pass 29

Tot. Yds. 21

Scoring 25

Int's allowed 10

Sacks allowed 18

LIONS DEFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:

vs. Run 9

vs. Pass 27

Total yds. allowed 20

No. of INTs 5

No. of Sacks 19

Turnover differential -3

The Bucs clearly have problems on offense after posting just two field goals at home against the Bears. QB Trent Dilfer's inability to hit open receivers in the vertical passing game finally landed him on the bench. Coach Tony Dungy will go with Eric Zeier on Sunday and the ex-Raven will bring greater accuracy to this offense. Zeier didn't perform well in limited duty earlier in the season against the Giants but his presence in the huddle alone might make a difference for this unit.

Tampa WR's Jacquez Green and Reidel Anthony consistently got behind coverage last week but the Bucs managed just two completions over 10 yards. Dilfer has never played well in eight career starts against Detroit, throwing just four touchdowns and 11 interceptions, which could be another reason why Dungy decided he'd seen enough.

With defenses ignoring the deep ball, Tampa's short passing game has become overly predictable. Offensive coordinator Mike Shula could get WR Bert Emmanuel back this week but his return could be offset by the loss of Karl Williams.

The Lions' defense is starting to get healthy and it showed last week against the Panthers as they sacked Steve Buerlein four times, including 1+ by LDE Robert Porcher. Now back to near full strength, Porcher will be too much for either ROT Jerry Wunsch or Jason Odom to handle. Like Porcher, RDT Luther Ellis has rebounded from injury and will look to capitalize on struggling LOG Jorge Diaz, who was the unit's only weak link against the Bears. Considering how badly he struggled against Mike Wells, Diaz will be in for a long day against Ellis, who must get deep penetration to prevent RB Mike Alstott from getting a head of steam. Starting LDC Bryant Westbrook should return this Sunday to give the Lions' secondary the physical play on the corner that it has been missing. Detroit has the clear advantage in the passing game because Westbrook's injury allowed Robert Bailey to gain great confidence in a starting role, which he will now take to the nickel package.

RB Warrick Dunn's propensity for losing yards on early downs is killing the Bucs offense. Dunn, who has 18 negative carries and nine others that have gone for no gain, put Dilfer in too many difficult down-and-distance situations. Look for Tampa to establish the running game early, as opposed to last week when Dilfer threw seven passes in eight plays on the team's opening drive. It's getting to the point where coach Dungy cannot afford for Alstott not to carry the ball between 23 and 30 times per game. Led by a healthier front four that could get Dan Owens back this week, the Lions' run defense is giving up just 87.5 yards per game. A key to the Lions' defense has been the well-timed run blitzes called by defensive coordinator Larry Peccatiello. Whether it's OLB Chris Claiborne or FS Mark Carrier, the Lions are holding the point of attack up front and slipping a member of the back seven through a gap.

Detroit offense vs. Tampa Bay defense

	LIONS OFFENSE
	Ranking in the NFL:
	Run	17
	Pass	18
	Tot. Yds.	19
	Scoring	13
	Int's allowed	7
	Sacks allowed	23

	BUCCANEERS DEFENSE
	Ranking in the NFL:
	vs. Run	1
	vs. Pass	11
	Total yds. allowed	3
	No. of INTs	5
	No. of Sacks	20
	Turnover differential	-13

The Lions lost another starter last week when RB Ron Rivers broke his ankle in the first quarter. Greg Hill, who has carried the ball 40 times for 166 yards (4.2 avg.), will assume the starting role and should give the Lions a better outside running game. Hill will run into a Tampa defense that is allowing just 3.1 yards per carry on the season. The Bears tried unsuccessfully to run away from LDE Chidi Ahanotu last week but that strategy backfired once the Bucs figured out their scheme.

Two Lions that came up with huge efforts last week were reserve ROT Barrett Brooks and LOG Kerlin Blaise, who held Carolina's Kevin Greene and Sean Gilbert to just one solo tackle. Detroit will need a repeat performance this week against Ahanotu and Warren Sapp but it's probably too much to ask of backup players at this point in the season. With Rivers out, the Bucs can expect to see the Lions spread the field and run FB Corey Schlesinger out of a one-back set. The Lions had some success with this design in the opener against Seattle but have since gone away from it. In order for Schlesinger to find running room, it's imperative that the Lions can handle Tampa Bay individually because double-teams will leave someone unblocked upfront.

QB Charlie Batch is doing everything the coaching staff is asking from him. Batch is making all the throws, especially the deep out pattern, which is a big reason why the Lions converted a season-high 58 percent (7-of-12) of their third downs last week. Detroit got bad news this week when they found out WR Herman Moore would be lost for another 2-3 weeks. Moore's absence has killed the Lions in the red-zone because his double-teams freed up the middle for guys like WR Germaine Crowell and TE David Sloan.

Expect to see the Lions use third-down back Sedrick Irvin plenty on Sunday, especially inside the 20. Irvin, who set up his own 1-yard touchdown run with a nifty 11-yard screen play last week, will test OLB Derrick Brooks' cover skills in the flat. Despite intercepting two passes last Sunday, Brooks doesn't seem to be diagnosing screen passes as well as he has in the past and he's covering up for his lack of recognition with his speed. The Bucs chose to sit back in zone coverage with seven defenders last week against Bears rookie QB Cade McNown but Batch won't be so lucky on Sunday. Tampa knows that Batch is sharp enough to pick apart a zone if he isn't pressured so look for them to bring six defenders with regularity, which will expose Greg Hill's trouble picking up the blitz.

Special teams

NFL RANK
Category	TB	DET
Punt return avg.	8	12
Kickoff return avg.	17	16
Opp. punt return avg.	7	15
Opp. kickoff ret. avg.	6	3
Time of possession	6	17

Tampa PK Martin Gramatica missed two field goals last week after connecting on his first nine tries and it will be interesting to see how the rookie bounces back. As a rule, inexperienced kickers usually dwell on their misses and are affected into the next game. Tampa's kick coverage has been solid all year but looked susceptible last week without John McLaughlin. Detroit KOR Terry Fair's 57-yard return last week was overshadowed by a costly fumble to start the second half. This could be a low-scoring affair and the Lions' PK Jason Hansen is almost automatic inside the Silverdome.

Key matchups

Detroit TE David Sloan vs. Tampa OLB Shelton Quarles
QB Batch is starting to become more comfortable going to his big tight end and the Bucs must account for him in the red zone. Quarles is arguably the most underrated cover LB in the NFC and his backup, Al Singleton, played great in relief last week.

Detroit DTs Ellis & Jones vs. Tampa interior OL
Not only will the Lions' duo have to deal with Alstott's inside power, they must contend with draws and traps to Dunn.

Detroit FB Corey Schlesinger vs. Tampa MLB Hardy Nickerson
Schlesinger's lead blocking will be pivotal against a player that plays the run as well as Nickerson. Nickerson has looked a bit slower this season but he rarely gives ground at the point of attack.

Tampa Bay will win if...

FB Mike Alstott can take advantage of Detroit MLB Stephen Boyd. Reserves Scott Kowalkowski and Richard Jordan played admirably the past two weeks but the Lions welcome back Boyd this week. Alstott should have clear running lanes when the Bucs go with their multiple-receiver sets and he could catch Boyd a little rusty.

They can pick up the blitz. Detroit defensive coordinator Larry Peccatiello picks his spots to bring people but he normally guesses right. Look for the Lions to target the Bucs' OTs by bringing corners and outside 'backers. Zeier will need extra time in his first start.

They play physical with the Lions' receiving corps. Crowell and Morton are explosive receivers but they are never as effective when defenses jam them at the line of scrimmage and deliver good shots after the catch.

Detroit will win if...

Their defense continues to play aggressive in the red zone. Last week, the Lions did a tremendous job of getting penetration on run downs and OLB Allen Aldridge and SS Ron Rice effectively shut down the tight end.

They can get their outside running game on track. Detroit was unable to do so last week and it won't be any easier against Tampa's speedy LB corps. OTs Barrett Brooks and Ray Roberts and TE Sloan must wall down the Bucs' athletic defensive ends.

Offensive coordinator Sylvester Croom continues to keep defenses off balance. The Lions have dictated the tempo the past few games by getting everyone involved and running just enough to keep opposing defenses honest.

The War Room edge
This is a game the Lions cannot afford to lose and one they typically drop. In this series, the road team has enjoyed great success the past few years. Tampa's defense will make it a long afternoon for Charlie Batch but the Lions' signal-caller will at least take care of the football. The difference in this one will be turnovers by the Bucs offense. Trent Dilfer has played smart football all season but that streak will end in the Silverdome. Detroit's defense is finally beginning to make some impact plays and the offense will win this one with a couple of big plays in the passing game.

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