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Thursday, November 4
War Room: Cardinals at Jets


Arizona offense vs. New York defense
CARDINALS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 30
Pass 26
Tot. Yds. 29
Scoring 29
Int's allowed 18
Sacks allowed 18
   
JETS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 24
vs. Pass 27
Total yds. allowed 28
# of Ints. 8
# of Sacks 8
Turnover differential -4
A rotating door along the Cardinal offensive line has placed the Arizona offense in a difficult position. Rookie Lonnie "L.J." Shelton got his first start at LOT last weekend against the Patriots and showed some promise, but the Cardinals' line is playing terribly as a group. ROT Anthony Clement has only been starting at his position for a few weeks, while the interior of the Arizona line is being pushed around by opposing defenses.

The play of the line has prevented the Cardinals from getting either their passing or running games on track. QB Dave Brown, who replaced starter Jake Plummer, was abominable, going 12 of 33 for 107 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions.

This week, the Cardinals need to try and get the team's running game going. The best way to do so would be behind Shelton and Clement, both of whom are capable of dominating at the point of attack. Unfortunately, the Jets, anchored by a solid linebacking corps, are tough against the run and will bring a variety of stunts and blitz packages to keep the inexperienced Arizona tackles confused. To loosen up the Jets backers, Brown needs to find some chemistry with his talented corps of wide receivers. If Brown can throw the ball downfield early, things could open up for the running game.

The Jets played a solid defensive game against the Raiders two weeks ago, but somehow came up on the short end of the score. Breakdowns along the defensive line allowed Raiders QB Rich Gannon to get outside of containment and rack up several huge gains at critical points in the game.

Arizona QB Brown is not nearly as mobile as Gannon, but this is an aspect the Jets must improve upon.

Additionally, the Jets secondary must raise its level of play after giving up 352 yards to the Raiders' air attack -- much of which was accrued while Gannon was scrambling. Because of Arizona's talent at WR, expect Jets defensive coordinator Bill Belichick to use a balanced defense, and at least initially, use the front seven alone to generate pressure on Brown, with the safeties helping the corners protect against the deep ball. If the front seven is incapable, the Jets must begin to take more risks and get the safeties and corners involved with pressuring the QB.

New York DCs Aaron Glenn and Ray Mickens must have good games against a talented receiving corps, but a key role will be played by nickel corner Corey Sawyer, as the Jets will undoubtedly be facing a large number of three-receiver sets.

New York offense vs. Arizona defense
JETS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 6
Pass 25
Tot. Yds. 19
Scoring 21
Int's allowed 11
Sacks allowed 23
   
CARDINALS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 30
vs. Pass 5
Total yds. allowed 16
# of Ints. 8
# of Sacks 14
Turnover differential -12
QB Rick Mirer has been unable to get the Jet offense playing on a level anywhere near where it was playing last season, and this has been one of the main problems for New York. The absence of WR Wayne Chrebet over the first six weeks of the season left Mirer with fewer options. Now that Chrebet has returned, Mirer will have a viable target when big-play WR Keyshawn Johnson is locked up in double coverage. Chrebet has the ability and toughness to catch a pass underneath and turn it into a big gainer.

Against a team like the Cardinals that has a talented secondary, the Jets need to get back to their bread and butter -- running the football. RB Curtis Martin has had a great year thus far, and is on pace to rush for over 1400 yards. The Jets should try to run Martin behind ROT Jason Fabini and rookie ROG Randy Thomas, both of whom are solid run blockers and are capable of dominating at the point of attack. Fabini will be lined up across from undersized rookie LDE Thomas Burke, who has been filling in for Andre Wadsworth, and should have a strong day. With the running attack established, Mirer will be able to use play action and look up top, but expect Parcells to be conservative if the running attack is effective.

Arizona's defense, decimated by injuries, has continued to battle to keep the Cardinals in games, only to see the offense unable to put points on the board. LDE Andre Wadsworth has been battling a gimpy knee and a severe case of turf toe, and only played two series last week against the Patriots. His replacement, rookie Thomas Burke, has been holding his own, but is not the caliber player that Wadsworth is. His lack of size is a liability against the run and his upfield burst when rushing the passer pales in comparison to Wadsworth's.

Starting DT Mark Smith is sidelined following knee surgery and his linemate Eric Swann is limited in the number of plays he can be on the field. This has left the Cards with a defense that can be run against and that is almost certainly what the Jets will try to do this week. With no other way to stop the run than by putting eight men in the box, LDC Aeneas Williams will be given the responsibility of playing New York WR Keyshawn Johnson in single coverage for much of the game. How Williams fares against Johnson will largely determine how close this game turns out to be.

On the other side of the field, LDC Tom Knight has not been playing well in recent weeks and will need some help from the secondary. Expect Arizona to try to use a variety of stunt packages to stop the run and pressure the passer before the team resorts to the blitz, as the Cardinals won't be keen on leaving the weak-side corner in single coverage on very many occasions.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category ARI NYJ
Punt return avg. 9 23
Kickoff return avg. 9 3
Opp. punt return avg. 7 9
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 16 25
Time of possession 27 19
KR Mario Bates has been a bright spot for the Cardinals special teams units, but the coverage units have looked disorganized at times and often seem on the verge of giving up the big play. PK Chris Jacke continues his solid play and seems reliable under all conditions. Jets P Tom Tupa continues to play at a high level, and is particularly accurate in shorter situations. Jets PK John Hall is an asset, particularly on kick-offs, and is almost a certainty from 40 yards and in.

Key matchups
  • New York WRs Keyshawn Johnson and Wayne Chrebet vs. Arizona CBs Aeneas Williams and Corey Chavous
    Much like the Cardinals, the Jets have two big-play WRs in Johnson and Chrebet and they match up well on the Cardinal corners, but can Mirer or Lucas get them the football? If Vinnie Testaverde was healthy, this would be a great matchup.

  • Arizona QB Dave Brown vs. New York defensive coordinator Bill Belichick
    After last week's Arizona debacle, this looks like a real mismatch. Brown struggled in all phases, and as bad as the Jets are playing, Belichick will confuse him with disguised coverages and blitzes, and this could make it a long day for Arizona.

  • Arizona WRs Frank Sanders and Rob Moore vs. New York CBs Aaron Glenn and Ray Mickens
    On paper, this looks like a favorable matchup for the Cardinals, as Moore and Sanders are capable of making big plays versus the smallish Jet corners. However, it is becoming highly unlikely that the Cardinal QBs (Brown or rookie Griesen) can get them the ball.

    Arizona will win if...
  • The front seven forces Rick Mirer to make quick decisions with the ball. Mirer will get the start because Ray Lucas has not recovered from an ankle injury. Mirer's inability to make quick reads could be a liability for the Jets, particularly if he sees a lot of pressure. In order to do so, the Cardinals will have to put their corners on an island and bring a lot of bodies in blitz packages.

  • QB Dave Brown makes the Jets pay for single-man coverage on the outside receivers. The Cardinals have big-play receivers who are capable of taking over a game. Brown must find a way to get those players the ball, particularly in single coverage, if the Cardinals are to have any success on offense.

  • RB Adrian Murrell gets on track, keeping the Cardinals from having to throw the ball to sustain drives. Murrell hasn't been playing as poorly as the piece-meal offensive line that has been playing in front of him, but he needs to have a huge day if the Cardinals are to have any chance. It is only if Murrell finds success running the football that QB Dave Brown will be able to throw the football with success.

    New York Jets will win if...

  • Roman Phifer gets more involved in the pass rush. An inability to get after Raiders QB Rich Gannon proved fatal to the Jets two weeks ago in Oakland. Phifer is one of the few guys on the Jets with a proven ability to get after the passer and will need to use that skill this week to force Dave Brown into some mental mistakes.

  • WRs Keyshawn Johnson and Wayne Chrebet make Rick Mirers' job easier. Chrebet and particularly Johnson have had the dropsies over the last few weeks. With an erratic QB like Mirer in the game, both need to make the catches that they should make, lest they put undue pressure on a developing QB.

  • The offensive line holds up against the Cardinal's tenacious front seven. Although the Cards are banged up, they still have guys with the ability to make plays. The Jets offensive line needs to neutralize the likes of Wadsworth and Swann and concentrate on blocking for Curtis Martin.

    The War Room edge
    These are two football teams with great early-season hopes that are now just trying to finish a nightmare 1999 campaign. Both are without their starting QBs, neither team can move the ball on offense, but they both play pretty good defense. This should be a low-scoring game that may hinge on one or two big plays on defensive mistakes, but it will not be an offensive classic, although it may be "offensive" to the fans watching it. The Jets are coming off a much-needed bye week, and should ride the legs of Curtis Martin to bring them a win at home.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
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