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Thursday, November 4
War Room: Bills at Redskins


Buffalo offense vs. Washington defense
BILLS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 10
Pass 14
Tot. Yds. 13
Scoring 18
Int's allowed 11
Sacks allowed 16
   
REDSKINS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 23
vs. Pass 9
Total yds. allowed 7
# of Ints. 14
# of Sacks 16
Turnover differential +5
The Bills offensive woes continue with the loss of WR Eric Moulds, as defenses are taking advantage of a less dynamic scheme. Buffalo has been forced to condense the offense because of personnel, and they have been unable to generate any rhythm in the passing game because of it.

The Redskins have finally been getting the kind of play from DTs Dan Wilkinson and Dana Stubblefield that they originally envisioned, which gives them a great chance to shut down the Bills running game on Sunday. The Redskins match up extremely well in the trenches and should be able to control the line of scrimmage against the run. Knowing this, Buffalo is going to try to throw the ball to set up the run game.

The Bills will run a lot of three- and four-receiver sets with TE Jay Riemersma coming in motion out of the slot position. The fourth receiver will be either RB Jonathan Linton or Antowain Smith, lining up inside the wide receiver and running a lot of crossing routes underneath. The Bills have had to pack in their offense with the loss of Moulds, but they realize that in order to get production out of Doug Flutie, the offense needs to be more wide open. By spreading the field and pressuring the Redskins secondary, the Bills force Washington to back players into coverage and rush fewer personnel than they would normally like.

To counter the Bills attack, Washington will run what has come to be known as the "vogue defense." The vogue is a "32" dime or "33" nickel package, giving the Redskins five or six defensive backs in coverage. In order to create a pass rush, Washington will stunt its down lineman and blitz two or three of its linebackers. The vogue defense is so effective because it allows teams to play combination man/zone coverage with its five or six defensive backs, while creating pressure up front because of the confusion it puts on blocking techniques and schemes with a lot of activity from all different angles.

The one twist that the Redskins will throw into the equation is with OLB Shawn Barber. Barber will be responsible for spying Doug Flutie and making sure that he contains the mobile quarterback throughout the game. Teams have been very successful the past few weeks shutting down Flutie because they use a spy defender to follow the quarterback's every move. By containing Flutie and keeping him in the pocket, you take away his ability to turn the corner and force the run/pass option. You also force the undersized quarterback to make throws behind the line of scrimmage, where the throwing lanes are smaller and he has trouble seeing the entire field. Barber is an excellent athlete who should excel in his role as the spy for the Redskins, as he has the speed and instincts to follow Flutie around the field. It actually plays into his strength, because he does a lot better job chasing than he does in coverage or when teams run right at him.

Washington offense vs. Buffalo defense
REDSKINS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 4
Pass 5
Tot. Yds. 2
Scoring 1
Int's allowed 3
Sacks allowed 8
   
BILLS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 9
vs. Pass 31
Total yds. allowed 31
# of Ints. 6
# of Sacks 14
Turnover differential -9
On an offense where so much of the credit is given to the position players, the offensive line is the true MVP. The Redskins face a tough task in the trenches against Buffalo on Sunday and key will be the play of OC Cory Raymer. Raymer will line head up on Ted Washington and will draw responsibility of controlling the 350-pound nose tackle. Raymer is a well-built offensive center who plays with good base and upper body strength. He does a better job against a guy like Washington than he would against a quicker defensive tackle. If Raymer can handle the matchup without help from his guards, it will allow OG's Keith Sims and Tre Johnson to pick up the inside blitz as well as give the tackles help on the inside against Phil Hansen and Bruce Smith.

The Redskins are going to look to establish the run early on in Sunday's game and will do so by running the ball downhill and off-tackle with great frequency. The Ravens proved last week that running the ball at Smith and Hansen is a two-pronged attack. Not only do they exploit the weakness of the Bills defense, but also wear down the Bill's top pass rushers.

RB Stephan Davis is a product of a great offensive line and a receiving corps that stretches the field vertically, but the bottom line is that Davis is running the ball hard and taking advantage of gaping holes up front. Davis has shown excellent vision and change of direction as a runner this year, something that has never been seen before in Davis at the NFL level. Buffalo's linebacking corps has their hands full against the Redskins for a couple of reasons. First, ILB's Sam Cowart and John Holececk are going to have to create a great presence in the middle and string the running game outside. The problem is that Buffalo needs to generate pressure on the outside without having to overextend their linebacking corps. Davis has been burning teams that come with too much personnel on the blitz because he has been picking out the cutback lanes and bursting through them.

The other big matchups to watch will be outside where CB's Thomas Smith and Ken Irving will lock on to WR's Michael Westbrook and Albert Connell. Smith/Westbrook is a targeted matchup for the Redskins on Sunday that should dictate their offensive game plan. If Westbrook can force the Bills to use a safety to help Smith in the deep third, it will not only open up a lot of room for Connell to work on the opposite side, but it will also back the Bills defense off and open up some room underneath for the running game. If Smith can handle the matchup alone, it will give the Bills more personnel to work with in the blitz package.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category BUF WAS
Punt return avg. 6 24
Kickoff return avg. 30 28
Opp. punt return avg. 4 24
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 18 11
Time of possession 15 22
PK Steve Christie is off to an excellent start for the Bills, connecting on 14 of 18 with a long of 52 yards. The Bills have needed his leg to come through because of their troubles converting in the red zone. Chris Mohr's ability to get great hang-time on his punts has been a big advantage for the Bill's punt coverage units. Kevin Williams has been consistent all season as the punt return man, averaging 11.1 yards per return. Because of the 'Skins execution on offense, Brett Conway has only attempted 13 field goals thus far, connecting on eleven of those with a long of 51 yards. P Matt Turk has had a disappointing season to this point, averaging 41.7 yards per punt, only dropping five of those inside the opponent's twenty yard line.

Key matchups
  • Washington OT Andy Heck vs. Buffalo DE Bruce Smith
    Smith has been less effective than usual over the pat couple of weeks, and it is due mostly in part to offenses running right at him on first and second down. Smith is still a top of the line pass rusher in the NFL, but he tends to wear down when he has to play a critical role in run-defense. Heck is a big, physical lineman that doesn't stand much of a chance against Smith unless he uses the running downs to get out and drive Smith.

  • Washington WR Michael Westbrook vs. Buffalo CB Thomas Smith
    This is a targeted matchup for the Redskins on Sunday that should dictate the offensive game plan. If Westbrook can force the Bills to use a safety to help Smith in the deep third, it will not only open up a lot of room for Connell to work, but it will also back the Bills defense off some and open up some room underneath for the running game. If Smith can handle the matchup alone, it will give the Bills more personnel to work with in the blitz package.

  • Buffalo QB Doug Flutie vs. Washington OLB Shawn Barber
    Teams have been very successful the past few weeks shutting down Flutie because they use a spy defender to follow the quarterbacks every move. By containing Flutie and keeping him in the pocket, you take away his ability to turn the corner and force the run/pass option. You also force the undersized quarterback to make throws behind the line of scrimmage, where the throwing lanes are smaller and he has trouble seeing the entire field. Barber is an excellent athlete who should excel in his role as the spy for the Redskins, and has the speed and instincts to follow Flutie around the field. It actually plays into his strength, because he does a lot better job chasing than he does in coverage or when teams run right at him.

    Buffalo will win if...
  • They open it up offensively. Buffalo, even without WR Eric Moulds, needs to open up the offense the way they were early on in the season. The Bills are more effective when they run four- and five-receiver sets and utilize every inch of the field. What this does is force teams to back into coverage, only rushing four guys, and gives Flutie a chance to move around in the pocket and find throwing or running lanes to take advantage of the space.

  • The receiving corps does a better job of coming out of breaks and staying with Doug Flutie when he is on the move. When Flutie is getting out of the pocket and creating second chances, his receiving corps has done a poor job of coming back to the quarterback. With a mobile and imaginative quarterback like Flutie, it is important for the receivers to get out of their breaks and find the quarterback. They need to come back to the ball or take it downfield when Flutie gets to the sideline and has his momentum behind him. Too many times, Flutie has been stranded on the sideline with his momentum taking him out of bounds and no receivers close to him to advance the ball up the field.

  • NT Ted Washington holds his ground at the point of attack. The Redskins have been doing an excellent job of winning the battle in the trenches and gaining valuable yardage between the tackles with Stephan Davis. Ted Washington is the most important player for the Bills in run defense. If Washington is able to create surge at the line of scrimmage versus the Redskin's interior line, it allows his inside linebackers to have more clear shots at the running lane and will give them a chance to make one-on-one tackles in the hole.

    Washington will win if...

  • They run the ball at Buffalo's defensive ends, Bruce Smith and Phil Hansen. Smith and Hansen, last week, proved that they are susceptible when teams run right at them. The defensive ends tend to wear down and become less effective as pass rushers when they have to play a bigger role in run-defense.

  • CB Champ Bailey and Darrell Green hold up in man-to-man coverage. Bailey and Green are one of the best cornerback tandems in the league and will have to prove it again on Sunday when they matchup against the Bills Andre Reed and Peerless Price. Bailey and Green have the speed and coverage skills to dominate this matchup, but they are going to have to have great communication with their safeties and nickel backs against the four- and five-receiver sets. If the Washington corners can handle their man-to-man matchups, it will allow the defense to be a lot more aggressive in its play calling and come after Flutie instead of sitting back in coverage.

  • QB Brad Johnson exploits the Bills vacated areas when they are in their blitz package. The Bills love to play aggressive on defense and come after opponent's quarterbacks with a heavy array of underneath stunting and up-front blitzing. Johnson has a reliable enough receiving corps to make the Bills pay for evacuating their zone responsibilities underneath if he can make the correct recognition and put the ball on his receivers as they make their initial cuts.

    The War Room edge
    Two potentially playoff bound teams heading in the opposite direction, square off on Sunday in a game that should be an accurate measuring device of each others true stance among the league. The Redskins, coming off a dominating performance over the Bears, seem to be hitting on all cylinders as long as they are not playing the Cowboys. Buffalo, however, seems to have lost the formula for dominance on both sides of the ball and have been sputtering through the last three weeks of the season. If the Bills do not find an answer to some important offensive questions early on, the Redskins have the firepower to put this one away early. Expect a physical game upfront on both sides of the ball, but the 'Skins are too tough at home and have too many weapons offensively to be beat by a struggling Bills team.

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