Thursday, November 4
The War Room
Chicago offense vs. Green Bay defense
|
BEARS OFFENSE
|
|
Ranking in the NFL:
|
|
Run
|
24
|
|
Pass
|
6
|
|
Tot. Yds.
|
10
|
|
Scoring
|
22
|
|
Int's allowed
|
11
|
|
Sacks allowed
|
20
|
|
|
|
|
PACKERS DEFENSE
|
|
Ranking in the NFL:
|
|
vs. Run
|
26
|
|
vs. Pass
|
15
|
|
Total yds. allowed
|
21
|
|
# of Ints.
|
15
|
|
# of Sacks
|
17
|
|
Turnover differential
|
-8
|
With starting QB Shane Matthews' status in question, the Bears might be limited in the things they can do offensively. Earlier in the season, Offensive coordinator Gary Crowton lost plenty of chess matches without Matthews in the lineup, as neither of his replacements could get this team to the line of scrimmage in enough time to check out of plays or prevent opponents from shuffling personnel. Look for the Bears to get RB Curtis Enis the ball on plays where he can take advantage of an underachieving Packer rushing defense that was gashed last week by Seattle's Rickey Watters.
Chicago attempted a franchise record 63 passes last week but they must get back to running the ball in order to be successful. Enis has taken heat for not running with the same abandon he did early in the season but the offensive line deserves a good deal of the criticism. Chicago's line came apart last week against Washington and it will need to win more short-area fist fights in the trenches against a rejuvenated Packers front four. Green Bay RDT Santana Dotson returned last Monday against Seattle after an extended period on the inactive list and took about one-third of the snaps. A rusty Dotson will need help on the right side from RDE Vaughn Booker, who has played with a better motor this season than at any time in his career. The Packers will sorely miss the playmaking ability of WLB Brian Williams who is out the rest of the season with a torn patellar tendon. Green Bay has a few options at linebacker but they will most likely start ex-Chief Anthony Davis. Williams' loss will limit the Packers can do blitz-wise because neither Davis nor Jude Waddy has demonstrated the ability to be an effective rush player.
A key for the Packers' secondary will be to never lose track of WR Curtis Conway. Conway returns from an extended time off and he will make Green Bay pay on underneath routes if they give him a generous cushion. Defensive coordinator Emmitt Thomas' young secondary has made a lot of big plays this season but they are struggling with consistency. Over the past two weeks, Thomas has wisely increased SS LeRoy Butler's blitz frequency and he will be forced to use his cornerbacks more in that role in light of Williams' injury. While this move has generated improved pressure on the quarterback, it leaves struggling FS Darren Sharper exposed when the quarterback isn't hurried. Sharper has trouble diagnosing plays and the angles he takes on receivers has been questionable. If the Bears can establish the ground game early it will put a lot of pressure on Sharper in play-action sequences.
Green Bay offense vs. Chicago defense
|
PACKERS OFFENSE
|
|
Ranking in the NFL:
|
|
Run
|
20
|
|
Pass
|
7
|
|
Tot. Yds.
|
8
|
|
Scoring
|
15
|
|
Int's allowed
|
12
|
|
Sacks allowed
|
17
|
|
|
|
|
BEARS DEFENSE
|
|
Ranking in the NFL:
|
|
vs. Run
|
25
|
|
vs. Pass
|
22
|
|
Total yds. allowed
|
26
|
|
# of Ints.
|
5
|
|
# of Sacks
|
22
|
|
Turnover differential
|
-7
|
Aside from his late-game heroics, QB Brett Favre has been very ordinary this season. In last Monday's debacle against Seattle, Favre recorded just the second four-interception game of his career because of his insistence on forcing the ball into coverage. The biggest problem Favre is having is his propensity to lock-on WR Antonio Freeman, regardless of his diagrammed read progressions. After reviewing film of last week's game, Favre threw a costly red-zone interception to Seattle's Shawn Springs when he tried to squeeze the ball to Freeman instead of hitting his first-read-FB William Henderson in the flat could have walked in for an easy touchdown. Favre's injured thumb is giving him more problems than he indicates to the media, which has also contributed to his accuracy problems but that is no excuse for throwing eight interceptions in his last 75 attempts. Look for the Packers to simplify their passing game this week, focusing on getting RB Dorsey Levens and Henderson the ball more out of the backfield. Levens caught only three passes last week and his production will prevent Chicago from sitting back in deep zone coverage.
ROT Earl Dotson's ejection early in the second half all but sealed the Packers fate last Monday and they will need him to rebound this week against the Bears. Green Bay's running game is nowhere near as crisp when Mike Wahle takes over at tackle and Joe Andruzzi plays left guard. Last week, Chicago's front four did not play with the same energy they have in past games. The Bears will give the Packers a lot of different looks up front and they are beginning to utilize DT Jim Flanigan in a zone-blitz capacity on passing downs. After getting slashed by Washington's Stephen Davis for 76 yards on the team's first carry, the Bears settled down and played pretty solid run defense. Chicago must not only tackle, they also must place great emphasis on trying to cause turnovers. RB Dorsey Levens has fumbled four times in 171 carries this season, which is a tremendous drop-off from his last healthy season (1997). That year, Levens touched the ball nearly 300 more times (467) before coughing up the ball four times.
Special teams
|
NFL RANK
|
|
Category
|
CHI
|
GB
|
|
Punt return avg.
|
11
|
22
|
|
Kickoff return avg.
|
8
|
29
|
|
Opp. punt return avg.
|
15
|
13
|
|
Opp. kickoff ret. avg.
|
6
|
21
|
|
Time of possession
|
9
|
29
|
Ray Rhodes made a poor decision when he let PK Ryan Longwell attempt a 50-yard field goal into a stiff wind. The Seahawks busted through the left side of the Packers line to snuff the attempt and the ball was scooped up and returned for a touchdown by Shawn Springs. That one play shifted the momentum in Seattle's favor for the rest of the evening. RS Desmond Howard was more aggressive this week and it paid off with season-long punt and kickoff returns.
Chicago's return teams are steadily falling off. They will need better field position than Glyn Milburn provided last week against the Redskins. P Todd Sauerbrun bounced back to have a solid afternoon but PK Chris Boniol has yet to gain Jauron's confidence. The team has already gone through two kickers and it is doubtful that they will dump Boniol anytime soon. This series has typically been highlighted with close games so the Packers have a definitive edge if the kicking game is the deciding factor.
Key matchups
Green Bay OG Marco Rivera vs. Chicago DT Jim Flanigan
This is a man-on-man matchup between two very physical players who are not overly athletic, but they battle on every down. The Bears are at their best on defense when their defensive tackles penetrate and disrupt the offensive flow, which will be critical in this game.
Chicago WR Curtis Conway vs. Green Bay CB Mike McKenzie
If Conway is healthy, this is an interesting matchup between a speedy veteran and a brash young rookie. McKenzie has done an excellent job in m/m coverage, but Conway is most dangerous in 1999 after the catch, and is running more short, intermediate, and crossing routes than in the past.
Green Bay WR Bill Schroeder vs. Chicago CB Tom Carter
We all know that Antonio Freeman gets a lot of attention from opposing defenses, and because of it, Schroeder gets a lot of single m/m coverage. He has the speed to get deep and get big plays if Favre can find him.
Chicago will win if...
Shane Matthews/Cade McNown gets in a good rhythm in the passing game. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Bears must settle into a comfort zone in the first half. The Packers have struggled in pass protection this season aside from a couple of games (Minnesota and San Diego) where they had success early -- typical for a young unit.
The interior line gets good surge in the run game. Green Bay was overpowered at the point of attack last week by Seattle and it will be important for the Bears to chew up the clock with a ball control offense.
SS Tony Parrish establishes a presence in the middle of the field. The rest of the Bears secondary will surely key on WR Antonio Freeman but Parrish will be responsible for intimidating guys like Schroeder and Bradford. Schroeder has looked unwilling on slants the past two weeks.
Green Bay will win if...
Dorsey Levens takes some of the load off of QB Brett Favre. Favre is coming off a miserable performance and the Packers would like to ease him into this one slowly. If Levens can get on track early instead of the fourth quarter, it will make things much easier for his QB.
The receiving corps picks up the blitz and runs crisp routes off the line of scrimmage. Freeman is not demanding the ball like he should and has thus been shut down for two consecutive weeks. DCs Carter and Harris are good enough to take advantage of sloppy play.
OLB's George Koonce and Davis/Waddy do an excellent job recognizing the pass and get into the flats in coverage. The loss of Brian Williams will undoubtedly hurt this unit. Waddy may start but Davis' starting experience makes him the better option in passing situations. Whoever the Packers select as Williams' replacement must get the job done on Enis.
The War Room edge
Defenses are starting to catch up to the Bears' wide-open passing attack, and they are having trouble moving the football effectively. Green Bay simply has too many offensive weapons, and unless Chicago can somehow run the football, control the clock, and keep Brett Favre on the sidelines, the Packers will eat them alive. Look for Antonio Freeman to have a big day, and for the Green Bay defense to create turnovers and give the Packers identity.
|  |
War Room: Week 9 previews
