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Thursday, November 4
War Room: Bengals at Seahawks


Cincinnati offense vs. Seattle defense
BENGALS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 9
Pass 21
Tot. Yds. 18
Scoring 30
Int's allowed 9
Sacks allowed 27
   
SEAHAWKS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 22
vs. Pass 23
Total yds. allowed 24
# of Ints. 17
# of Sacks 21
Turnover differential +2
QB Akili Smith's turf toe injury could keep him out this week and the team would be better off with Jeff Blake at the helm. With Smith, the Bengals have all but ignored the deep passing game and they aren't doing a good enough job of exploiting the middle of the field. WRs Darnay Scott and Carl Pickens will have a tough time beating Seattle's bump-and-run coverage, which puts a great emphasis on getting TE Tony McGee involved. McGee is a veteran guy has a knack for getting open but he needs to start holding onto the football.

Lack of continuity and injuries along the offensive line will be the Bengals' downfall on Sunday. Blake, who was relatively efficient in the second half last week after taking over for Smith, must make quick reads and get rid of the ball in rhythm for Cincinnati to have a chance. ROT Willie Anderson and ROG Brian DeMarco will not likely play, forcing Jamain Stephens and Jay Leeuwenberg into the fold.

The Seahawks' front four did a tremendous job of getting pressure on Favre last week without relying too heavily on the blitz. RDT Cortez Kennedy, who registered three sacks against Green Bay, and LDT Sam Adams will be too much for the Bengals to handle. It will be imperative for Cincinnati to run the ball well early in order to set up the play-action passing game, which is the only way to slow down Seattle's active duo. The pressure generated up front resulted in four interceptions by defensive backs last week, which underscores the receiving skills of defensive coordinator Jim Lind's ball-hawking secondary.

Cincinnati did not get the type of production they needed from RB Cory Dillon last week, which caused the defense to log too many minutes. Dillon ran 14 times for 32 yards -- 22 of which came on one play -- and his fumble opened the door for a quick Jacksonville score. The Bengals will have success on the ground if Dillon can find the cutback lanes that are created by Seattle's flowing linebackers. Green Bay piled up 125 yards rushing last week against the Seahawks because Dorsey Levens ran patiently and took advantage of over-pursuit. The Bengals don't normally run a lot of misdirection plays so look for them to implement a few backside screens to get Dillon in the open field.

Seattle offense vs. Cincinnati defense
SEAHAWKS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 26
Pass 21
Tot. Yds. 18
Scoring 30
Int's allowed 9
Sacks allowed 27
   
BENGALS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 22
vs. Pass 23
Total yds. allowed 24
# of Ints. 17
# of Sacks 21
Turnover differential +2
Last week, coach Mike Holmgren's offense wasn't overpowering but the level of execution was all he could have asked for out of his young team. The play of the offensive line, especially OC Chris Gray, who made his first start since Kevin Glover was ruled out for the rest of the season, was outstanding. The Seahawks had tremendous success on inside trap plays where RB Rickey Watters was able to bounce outside after clearing the line of scrimmage. Aside from a poor outing last week against the Jags, the Benglas' front seven has done a solid job against the run.

The key for the Cincinnati on Sunday will be to get penetration from NT Kimo Von Oelhoffen. If the Bengals can disrupt Seattle's running game, it will allow them to gear their schemes toward the pass -- an area in which they simply cannot rely upon personnel to get the job done. A huge deficiency all season for defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau's unit has been the lack of run support by the secondary.

One reason for Watters' outburst last week was the blocking he received from WRs Derrick Mayes, Sean Dawkins, and Mike Pritchard. Seattle's receivers are not very physical but they do an excellent job of shadowing defensive backs and they should have the upper hand against a young secondary that isn't crafty enough to slip these blocks.

A recent rash of injuries has left Cincinnati's secondary extremely vulnerable. This was not a talented group to start with but an injury to starting LDC Roosevelt Blackmon will force either Ty Howard or ex-starter Rodney Heath into the lineup. The Seahawks like to target a specific cornerback more than most teams so expect Kitna to look prominently to the left side of Cincinnati's defense. The Bengals cannot afford to give QB Jon Kitna ample time in the pocket because he has the accuracy to feast on this banged-up unit. Look for the Bengals to increase their blitz frequency this week because lack of pressure has only further exposed the suspect secondary. The linebacker corps has played well all season but regressed last week, failing to flow to the ball like in games past. LOT Walter Jones must rebound after a poor outing a week ago against Green Bay's Vonnie Holliday. While he played exceptionally well in the run game, Jones was uncharacteristically beaten for two sacks around the edge. Cincinnati's RDE Jevon Langford, who is sackless at this point, should not pose such a threat.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category CIN SEA
Punt return avg. 15 1
Kickoff return avg. 6 13
Opp. punt return avg. 28 22
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 3 1
Time of possession 11 25
Mike Holmgren's knowledge of Green Bay's personnel paid off in a huge way in last week's victory. By knowing the strengths of Packers PK Ryan Longwell, Holmgren declined a penalty -- that would have given the Packers a second chance to convert a third down -- and opted to let him attempt a 50-yarder into a stiff wind. Seattle's Matt LaBounty and Lamar King collapsed the left side of the Packers line to set up Shawn Springs' field goal return for a touchdown. Aside from that play, the Seahawks did not play particularly well on special teams.

Cincinnati is the kind of team that needs production from its special teams and they didn't get any last week. While they didn't particularly hurt the club, the Bengals special teams needs to provide more impact plays. P Will Brice's struggles are not helping the team in regard to field position and he must get his accuracy problems figured out before he faces Seattle rooke Charlie Rogers, who was held check last week by the Packers.

Key matchups
  • Seattle WR Derrick Mayes vs. Cincinnati CB Roosevelt Blackmon
    The Bengals are really struggling in the secondary, and although Mayes does not have blazing speed, he has become the go-to WR with the absence of Joey Galloway, and if he can get the inexperienced Blackmon on one-on-one situations, it is a huge advantage for Seattle.

  • Cincinnati LG Matt O'Dwyer vs. Seattle DT Cortez Kennedy
    Kennedy is a very physical inside penetrator, and if O'Dwyer does not neutralize him at the LOS, he will be in the Cincinnati backfield all day, not only disrupting the Bengal run game, but putting pressure on QB Akili Smith.

  • Seattle OGs Pete Kendall and Brian Habib vs. Cincinnati ILBs Takeo Spikes and Brian Simmons
    The strength of the Bengal defense (if there is one) is the two young ILB's. They must not only step up and fill versus the run, but they must also have some success blitzing Seattle QB Kitna and forcing him out of the pocket. If the Seattle OG's control this matchup, the Bengals are in real trouble.

    Cincinnati will win if...
  • The secondary holds up against the Seahawk's vertical passing game. Seattle doesn't have many playmakers in the passing game but the system gets guys open. Veterans like Mayes and Dawkins could feast on this banged up unit.

  • Jeff Blake picks up the blitz and delivers the ball to his receivers on the run. If Smith can't play, Blake must connect on a couple of deep balls with his old battery mates. One reason that Pickens and Scott have not made an impact is because they are not getting the ball in position to do anything with it. Seattle's nickel and dime packages are playing extremely well and will make it a long day if Blake isn't accurate.

  • RB Corey Dillon can get the running game on track to take pressure off the passing game. Dillon has to be a factor against this confident defense. Running inside on Kennedy and Adams will be tough so look for the Bengals to take their chances outside, where OLB Chad Brown has been very active. Dillon doesn't need to be spectacular, just efficient enough to move the chains.

    Seattle will win if...

  • Jon Kitna takes advantage of favorable matchups in the passing game. Kitna may not see a softer secondary all season so he must guard against getting overly anxious. Kitna's throws tend to sail when he gets to keyed up which means Holmgren must keep him focused on execution.

  • OC Chris Gray handles his matchup against NT Oliver Gibson, freeing up his offensive guards to pick up the blitz. Gray was outstanding last week against the Packers' formidable interior. Gibson, who is playing the best football of any player on this defense, will be another big challenge.

  • The pass rush gets to the quarterback and forces him to make split-second decisions. The Seahawks tend not to rush more than five defenders for one simple reason: it's not necessary. Seattle's front four is dominant and should take advantage of Cincy's struggling OGs.

    The War Room edge
    The Bengals have absolutely fallen apart, and this could be an ugly game. Although Cincinnati still has formidable offensive weapons, they are the most underachieving team in football, and they seem to play with no passion or pride on either side of the ball. We used to think that they were a dangerous opponent... Now they are just another "W" on the schedule. Seattle will roll in this one at home.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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