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Thursday, November 4
War Room: Broncos at Chargers


Denver offense vs. San Diego defense
BRONCOS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 15
Pass 9
Tot. Yds. 9
Scoring 19
Int's allowed 11
Sacks allowed 21
   
CHARGERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 3
vs. Pass 16
Total yds. allowed 10
# of Ints. 9
# of Sacks 15
Turnover differential -9
Things just keep getting worse for this Bronco offense, the latest being the injury to WR Ed McCaffrey who will have to sit out at least two weeks. Brian Griese now faces the challenge of leading his team into San Diego against one of the league's top rated defenses.

San Diego is probably the most aggressive and active defense up front in the league. Defensive coordinator Joe Pascale loves to run a lot of six-men-on-the-line and have his linebackers roam and attack the ball. The interesting aspect of the Charger defense is that they rely heavily on their corners and free safety in coverage. The strong safety plays about seven yards off the ball and is responsible for a running lane on the weak side, which means that he is only able to help in coverage underneath. In most situations, the free safety, Michael Dumas will play as if he is in two-deep zone but will be responsible for the tight end releasing off the line of scrimmage. This creates a lot of room on the outside and leaves CBs Terrance Shaw and Jimmy Spencer in man-to-man situations with the receivers. Because the defensive line does such a good job of clogging up the middle and also because there are essentially four linebackers who are extremely athletic and active, the Broncos are going to find little room to run the ball.

This is going to have to be a game where Denver relies on its sophomore quarterback to win the game. The advantage is that the Chargers are going to score very few points on Denver, which means that the Broncos only have to connect on a couple of big plays. Griese needs to be able to burn the Charger corners on the outside in man-to-man coverage. He is playing without McCaffrey and will have lots of pressure to deal with, but this is the game where Griese needs to prove capable of doing it on his own. TE Byron Chamberlain will play a big role as well, working the seam down the middle of the field and drawing the attention of the free safety.

Denver, in order to connect on the big-strike, is going to have to run a lot of three receiver streaks that spread the field vertically and force one-on-one situations. Because of the heavy pass rush, it will become a timing play down the sideline that makes the difference in this game. If Griese puts the ball in a position where his receivers can go up and make some big plays, the Broncos will be able to beat the Charger's pressure and win the low-scoring game.

San Diego offense vs. Denver defense
CHARGERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 31
Pass 23
Tot. Yds. 28
Scoring 23
Int's allowed 16
Sacks allowed 16
   
BRONCOS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 21
vs. Pass 7
Total yds. allowed 12
# of Ints. 8
# of Sacks 25
Turnover differential -20
It is difficult to describe how poorly this Charger offense really is playing. There is no surge up front in the run game and very little pass protection. The execution is spotty, so when some players actually do make their blocks and get good drive, someone on the other side of the line will miss an assignment.

With Natrone Means out for at least another three weeks, the running game has been handed over to Kenny Bynum and Terrell Fletcher. Bynum, a speedster with little durability, has had trouble finding holes and is not patient enough behind the line of scrimmage waiting for blocks to develop. Fletcher has shown in the past he can carry some of the load, but with his size (5'8", 196 pounds) his body cannot take the punishment over the coarse of a full game.

And finally, the Chargers brought in two veteran quarterbacks to stabilize the position. The thought was that with such a great defense, all the quarterback would have to be is a caretaker, leading the team on some time chewing drives and avoiding turnovers. However, Erik Kramer and Jim Harbaugh have been more erratic than most rookies this season and have been a big part in the collapse of this offense.

With that said, San Diego has a chance to once again to play time-of-possession football and take advantage of some big opportunities hand fed by the defense. The Broncos are going to attack the Chargers offense by playing aggressive up front and showing them a lot of eight- and nine-man fronts. Cornerbacks Dale Carter and Ray Crockett will match up on an island with the Charger receivers, daring San Diego to put the ball in the air. Expect to see SS Darrius Johnson more involved in the run defense. Johnson will walk up close to the line of scrimmage and have the responsibility of clogging up the backside running lane, which allows the linebacking corps to play more aggressive on the strong side and pursuit more freely to the ball.

The Bronco defensive line will be without will be without DE Alfred Williams, who tore his right Achilles' tendon last Sunday. Harold Hasselback will replace Williams. This is not much of a drop off because Denver rotates its defensive lineman on a regular basis. It does, however, take away from the depth on this unit and could hurt the Broncos late in the game if the Chargers have been able to run the ball with any effectiveness.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category DEN SD
Punt return avg. 29 24
Kickoff return avg. 5 27
Opp. punt return avg. 30 18
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 16 29
Time of possession 16 13
Jason Elam has missed 5 of 17 field goal attempts, but he is still striking the ball well and will bounce back because of his great mechanics. Tom Rouen is having another impressive season. The punter is averaging 48.8 yards per punt, but one concern is that teams are able to return his punts 40.9 percent of the time. Darren Bennett has a huge leg, but his inconsistency has hurt the Chargers. He is averaging 42.4 yards per punt, but there is no telling what kind of punt he is going to launch each time out. Chris Penn has been disappointing as a punt returner. He is averaging just 7.9 yards per return with a long of just 18 yards.

Key matchups
  • San Diego OT John Jackson vs. Denver DE Harold Hasselback
    With the injury to Alfred Willimas, Hasselback will take over the starting job and have to play a lot more downs than is is used to playing. Hasselback is a strong defensive end with some good power moves in pass rush, but may wear down against Jackson as the game goes on. Jackson has lost a step, but he is still a crafty offensive tackle with a great understanding of all the angles. This is a critical matchup because the Chargers need every advantage they can get on offense.

  • San Diego OC Roman Fortin vs. Denver MLB Al Wilson
    The Chargers need to be able to run the ball effectively to sustain some drives against the Broncos. Al Wilson, since stepping in for the injured Glenn Cadrez, has been a force in the middle of the field. Fortin is going to be responsible for getting out and chipping Wilson in the run game. If Fortin is too slow or cannot lock on, the Chargers will not be able to run the ball between the tackles.

  • Denver TE Byron Chamberlain vs. San Diego SS Greg Jackson
    Jackson, filling in for Rodney Harrison, needs to do a better job in coverage and filling in against the run. Chamberlain has done an excellent job taking over for the injured Shannon Sharpe, and his ability to stretch the defense has been one of the big reasons that the Broncos offense has shown some life. Chamberlain should be able to muscle Jackson around in the run game as well as in his routes, and could have a big day blocking and receiving in the middle of the field.

    Denver will win if...
  • They get production out of Rod Smith in the vertical passing game. Smith has been nicked up all season, but the offense desperately needs his speed on the outside. If Smith can reestablish himself as a deep threat, it will open up room underneath for Ed McCaffrey and also running lanes for Olandis Gary to work with.

  • SS Darius Johnson gets involved in run defense. The Chargers are going to work diligently to establish a run game. The Broncos are confident that Ray Crockett and Dale Carter can shut down the Charger's receivers in single-man coverage, allowing Johnson to cheat up close to the line of scrimmage and play more like a linebacker against the run.

  • The offense gets production out of RB Olandis Gary in the passing game. San Diego's defense speaks for itself. They are aggressive, smother the ball carrier and get great pressure on the passer. If sophomore QB Brian Griese is going to have a chance to move this offense, he will need Gary to do a better job of making himself an option in the passing game. The running back will be an important outlet for Griese and a good way to beat the blitz.

    San Diego will win if...

  • They can run the ball 35-40 times. It is clear that this offense is incapable of throwing the ball to win. With such a dominating defense, the Chargers need to win the time of possession game by running the football with consistency. The Chargers are physically capable of wearing out the Bronco's front seven, but it is going to take three quarters, and they cannot afford to play catch-up football.

  • DT's Norman Hand and John Parrella protect Junior Seau versus the run. The Broncos are looking to establish a run game to take the pressure off of Brian Griese against the Charger's defense. They will do so by running a lot of downfield plays that allow Olandis Gary to use his speed to the outside. It is crucial that the Charger defensive tackles continue to protect their playmaking linebacker and let Seau run free off the line of scrimmage in pursuit of the ball carrier.

  • The offense capitalizes on turnovers and great field position. San Diego has one of the top-rated defenses in the league accompanied by one of the worst offenses. The defense is going to make turnovers and put the offense in good field position a couple of times on Sunday, as they do most every game. The offense has to find a way to open it up and take advantage of these few opportunities without letting them pass and forcing the defense right back on the field after a three-and-out series.

    The War Room edge
    It's the same story heading into every week for the Chargers. Play great defense, create opportunities and hope that the offense is not too destructive and can take advantage of a couple of big defensive plays. This style is growing thin in San Diego and something has to give. The Broncos are playing as sound as can be expected at this point, and will once again do enough good things to keep themselves in the game in the fourth quarter on Sunday. Brian Griese continues to improve, and his ability to lead the offense and play low-risk football is the difference in this contest. The Chargers create some turnovers, but the Broncos do the same and the difference is that Denver takes advantage.

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