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Thursday, November 4
War Room: Jaguars at Falcons


Jacksonville offense vs. Atlanta defense
JAGUARS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 1
Pass 19
Tot. Yds. 12
Scoring 5
Int's allowed 3
Sacks allowed 9
   
FALCONS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 27
vs. Pass 8
Total yds. allowed 13
# of Ints. 7
# of Sacks 19
Turnover differential -10
The Jaguars finally established some balance offensively with the return of RB Fred Taylor. Taylor gives the Jaguars a legitimate threat in the backfield, forcing defenses to pull the double coverage off of either Keenan McCardell or Jimmy Smith and devote a safety to run support.

The Falcons have allowed an average of 124.2 yards per game (27th in the league) on the ground, meaning that they are going to be forced to use extra personnel on Sunday to contain Taylor & Co. The Falcon linebacking corps will finally be intact after playing with numerous personnel changes and shuffled assignments for four weeks in a row. Jessie Tuggle is back in the middle and Keith Brooking will be back at weakside linebacker full time now. The Falcons are in desperate need for somebody to step up as the playmaker versus the run. DT's Shane Dronett and Travis Hall must be able to take up more space and clog the middle on Sunday to force Taylor to string it outside. Too many times this season, offensive linemen have been able to get out and chip the linebacking corps in pursuit of the ball carrier.

On Sunday, if the defensive line does not do a better job of protecting its linebacking corps, Jacksonville's offensive line will get out and make the block downfield. Taylor has exceptional vision and change of direction, but he also benefits from a lot of backside lanes created by an offensive line that makes blocks downfield and creates room to run into the secondary.

QB Mark Brunell seems to have his rhythm back after last week, although it was against one of the worst secondaries in the league in Cincinnati. Brunell is the biggest beneficiary of Taylor's return, because it takes pressure off the passing game and creates better matchups downfield. McCardell and Smith are one of the best receiving tandems in the game today, and will eat alive a secondary that does not give them enough respect. Now that Taylor is drawing more attention in the middle, the receivers are finding a lot more space to operate on the outside.

Falcons' corners, Ray Buchanan and Ronnie Bradford are going to have to hold up in man-to-man coverages on first and second down. The Falcons corners will have a lot of pressure on them Sunday to not let up the big play off of play-action where they will get little help to the inside in the deep third. Crockett and Buchanan need to keep everything in front of them and avoid gambling unless the coverage allows for help if they get beat on a first move.

Atlanta offense vs. Jacksonville defense
FALCONS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 29
Pass 13
Tot. Yds. 22
Scoring 25
Int's allowed 7
Sacks allowed 27
   
JAGUARS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 11
vs. Pass 1
Total yds. allowed 13
# of Ints. 10
# of Sacks 26
Turnover differential +7
The Falcons offense is designed to run the football to set up the pass, something that had not happened before Sunday's win over the Panthers. RB's Byron Hanspard and Ken Oxendine combined for 120 yards, which took the pressure off of QB Chris Chandler and gave him more time and room to operate off of the play fake. The Jaguars have been extraordinarily aggressive on defense this season with defensive coordinator Dom Capers, using a lot of stunts and "dogs" to free up his linebackers on the blitz. Now that the Jaguar offense looks to be clicking, expect the defense to gamble even more, knowing that points will be put on the board to offset any big plays allowed.

The trenches are where the Jaguars have been dominating matchups and setting the tone for the defense. Atlanta's offensive line is gong to have to do a better job of holding up at the point of attack and cutting down on blown assignments. Against a team like Jacksonville, making the correct call and taking a good angle is the biggest key. The Jaguars bring so much personnel from so many different angles, that most of the time it is confusion that causes the penetration. FB Bob Christian is also going to have to play a critical role in the blocking scheme, both in the passing and running game. Christian will be responsible for picking up the extra man coming from the blitz. Many times, the Jaguars will send more people in upfield pursuit than the offense has players to block. Christian is going to have to recognize the blitz and pick up the unaccounted-for player that sneaks through the cracks or is waiting in the hole versus the run.

The next step in beating the Jaguar pressure is great communication between Chandler and his receivers. Terrance Mathis and Chandler seem to have a good feel for each other's whereabouts and decision-making process, but Chris Calloway, Tim Dwight and Ronnie Harris seem to be on separate pages. In order to beat the heavy blitz scheme, the receiving corps needs to do a better job breaking press coverage off the line of scrimmage and making themselves available as "hot receivers."

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category JAC ATL
Punt return avg. 17 28
Kickoff return avg. 26 24
Opp. punt return avg. 12 1
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 27 30
Time of possession 3 18
Mike Hollis has been nearly perfect on the season, nailing 18-of-19 with a long of 50 yards. He is currently No. 2 in the league on field goals behind Olindo Mare of the Dolphins. Bryan Barker is also having a stellar season with a 44.3 yard average per punt. Barker has had great hang time on his punts and his directional kicking has been a big boost to the defense, landing 14 punts inside the opponent's twenty yard line. Reggie Barlow has been a disappointment for the Jaguars as a punt return man this season. Barlow is a big-play threat, but has averaged just 8.5 yards per return with a long of just 29 yards.

The Falcons special teams units have been up and down all season long, but P Doug Stryzinski has shown great boom and direction this season and has been doing an excellent job of allowing his coverage units to get down the field. Teams are averaging just 2.7 yards per return, which leads the league.

Key matchups
  • Jacksonville RB Fred Taylor vs. Atlanta SS Marty Carter
    Now that the Jaguars have their home run threat running back, back in the backfield, teams are having to give up double coverage on the outside receivers and play an extra man in the box. Taylor has made a living out of making sharp cuts and taking advantage of backside holes that open up in the running game. Carter is going to have to act as an extra linebacker on the weakside, plugging the backside holes where Taylor will look to make his cutback.

  • Atlanta OT Bob Whitfield vs. Jacksonville DE Tony Brackens
    This is one of the top matchups in the game because of the talent level that will line up across from each other. Brackens has been dominating for most of the season and has benefited from defensive coordinator Dom Capers aggressive style of defense. The Jaguars are doing a lot more stunting and blitzing to free Brackens up to get to the quarterback. Whitfield is one of the few offensive tackles that can matchup with Brackens speed on the outside, the only question will be if he is tough enough on Sunday to handle the strength of Brackens on the rush.

  • Atlanta WR Terrance Mathis vs. Jacksonville CB Fernando Bryant
    This is an important matchup as far as the defensive scheme of the Jaguars is concerned. Bryant is an impressive rookie cornerback with excellent raw skills and has held up well for the most part in his first season, but he will have some trouble with a veteran like Terrance Mathis. The Jaguars will try to get away with single coverage on Mathis, but if it becomes a problem, they will have to use a safety to help in the deep third, which will force Dom Capers to back off some of his pressure on the Falcons up front.

    Jacksonville will win if...
  • QB Mark Brunell takes advantage of some of his receiver's man-to-man matchups. Because of their explosive run game, the Falcons are going to have to use more personnel in the box, leaving his receivers in some single-man coverage situations. Brunell needs to recognize these matchups and take advantage of them when the opportunity arises. His receiving corps has the big-play skill to get down field and make the Falcons pay for the defensive alignment.

  • If OC John Wade gets out and reaches MLB Jeff Kelly in the run game. Wade is a very tough, and physical offensive center with good straight-line speed. On certain situations, Kelly will be in at middle linebacker and is a liability versus the run. If Wade is able to get out and lock onto Kelly, Taylor will have a huge game running the football between the tackles.

  • Take the Falcons wide receivers out of the game in single coverage. Jacksonville's corners, Aaron Beasley and Fernando Bryant are capable of taking Terrance Mathis and Chris Calloway out of the game in single-man coverage. Because the Falcons have little running game to turn to with the loss of Jamal Anderson, Jacksonville will be able to stack eight-men in the box and attack QB Chris Chandler.

    Atlanta will win if...

  • QB Chris Chandler effectively picks up the blitz. It is the same story for Chris Chandler each week. Teams are coming after the oft-injured and immobile quarterback without a run game, and forcing him to make split second decisions to beat the blitz. Chandler is a crafty veteran with a great understanding of the game and his position, but he has not always been on the same page with his receivers, and the Falcons have had a terrible time beating the blitz so far this season.

  • WR's Chris Calloway and Tim Dwight can stretch the defense vertically. Somebody needs to step up as the deep threat opposite Terrance Mathis. Since the loss of Tony Martin to Miami, Mathis has been much less productive as a receiver because opposing secondaries are not having to roll coverage to the opposite side, leaving room underneath for Mathis to work.

  • CB's Henri Crockett and Ray Buchanan keep Keenan McCardell and Jimmy Smith in front of them. The Falcons corners will have a lot of pressure on them Sunday to not let up the big play in man-to-man coverage. Crockett and Buchanan need to keep everything in front of them because they will get little help in the deep third from the safeties because of the concern the Falcons have towards stopping the run.

    The War Room edge
    This will be a frustrating one for the Falcons, as they play a Jacksonville squad that almost mirrors their balance and team strengths of a year ago. With too many injuries and the winning formula missing from this year's version of the Falcons, the Jaguars will be able to control the tempo of this game and pick up yet another road victory over a team that has disappointed this season. The Jaguars seemingly regained their balance on offense last week, albeit versus the Bengals. The return of Fred Taylor at running back opens up this offense and forces teams to play more honest on the outside. The Jaguars defense, dominant all season long, finally gets time to rest and a cushion on the scoreboard allowing them to gamble. The Falcons are simply outmatched and will drop another embarrassing game in front of the home crowd.

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