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Wednesday, December 1
War Room: Browns at Chargers


Cleveland offense vs. San Diego defense
BROWNS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 29
Pass 29
Tot. Yds. 31
Scoring 31
Int's allowed 11
Sacks allowed 45
   
CHARGERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 12
vs. Pass 26
Total yds. allowed 21
# of Ints. 11
# of Sacks 22
Turnover differential -8
The Cleveland offensive scheme hasn't had much of a chance this season, due to the infidelity of their offensive line. The Browns front line has yielded a league high 45 sacks of rookie QB Tim Couch and have failed to provide RB's Karim Abdul-Jabbar, (2. 8 yards a carry) and Terry Kirby (3. 3 yards a carry) with any room to run.

The Chargers' defense is ranked 12th against the run and 26th against the pass. This should work for Browns' coach Chris Palmer, as he has put a great deal of time and effort into bringing along Couch this year. Couch has thrown 12 touchdowns, versus nine interceptions while ducking and side stepping opposing tacklers.

The Chargers defensive backfield has been riddled with injuries all season long. Pro-Bowler Rodney Harrison and his back up, Greg Jackson, have both been sidelined, leaving the door open for quarterbacks to expose rookie Jason Perry. The Browns will be taking lots of chances up top in the middle of the field, testing the likes of Perry on Sunday.

Cleveland's running game has floundered all season and it won't be rectified on Sunday. While the Chargers defensive line may have trouble rushing the passer, they are skilled at stopping the run. And with help from their talented linebacking corps, shutting down the Brown's running game will not be a difficult task.

The Browns offense is not only outmanned up front, but they're no match for the Charger linebackers either. Cleveland lacks the big blocking back necessary to clear out holes for Abdul-Jabbar. LB's Junior Seau and Eric Hill will be able to beat Cleveland FB Marc Edwards all day, getting to the Cleveland ball carrier before he has a chance to get to them.

Cleveland's passing game has been efficient of late, thanks in large part to the adjustments made by Couch. Couch has become accustomed to the heavy pressure allowed by a weak offensive line. This has led to his near perfection of the timing route and growing rapport with budding WR Kevin Johnson. Palmer has also let Couch work out of a shotgun set comprised of five receivers from time to time, allowing the rookie to use his vision while spreading opposing defenses all over the field.

The Chargers have had trouble figuring out how they want to cover teams this year and it has come back to haunt them. Defensive coordinator Joe Pascale has been forced to use zone coverage too often this year, resulting from secondary-decimating injuries that have created mismatches against three receiver sets and led to successful third down conversions by enemy offenses. Look for Couch to capitalize on this Sunday.

San Diego offense vs. Cleveland defense
CHARGERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 31
Pass 13
Tot. Yds. 26
Scoring 22
Int's allowed 20
Sacks allowed 29
   
BROWNS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 31
vs. Pass 13
Total yds. allowed 29
# of Ints. 7
# of Sacks 20
Turnover differential -8
The Chargers are anticipating the return of injured RB Natrone Means, in hopes that he'll resurrect their anemic running game. Currently the Chargers are dead last in the NFL running the football, averaging just 66 yards per outing. Means was reportedly ready to return for last week's game in Minnesota, but coach Mike Riley wanted to hold off, seeing as the game was on artificial turf.

For the Chiefs, Means return couldn't have come at a better time. The Cleveland defense is last in the NFL in rushing defense, yielding 167 yards a game, so something has got to give. Despite Means' return, San Diego's ailing running game won't be cured overnight. Even when he healthy, Means struggled, averaging a mere 2.6 yards a carry.

However, even with Means surfacing in the Charger lineup, San Diego will still look to throw the ball first. The Bolts have had a great deal of success throwing recently, with Harbaugh passing for 882 yards and four TDs in his last three starts. Led by LCB Ryan McNeil, the Browns are 13th among NFL defenses in stopping the pass, but rank last in NFL in sacks, so Harbaugh will have time to probe the Cleveland secondary and locate second and third options.

Behind veteran OT Jon Jackson, the Chargers have shown improvement up front, but most of their progression has come in their protection of Harbaugh, although the loss of LG Aaron Taylor, who has been hampered by a sore leg, won't help.

Up front the Browns' defensive line is beginning to gel. Last week they kept Eddie George in check, using their speed and athleticism to get upfield and disrupt the Titan blocking schemes. Look for active Cleveland DT's Stalin Colinet and Darius Holland to stunt often in an attempt to rattle fill-in Kendy Jacox. Jacox is a true center and playing guard in Taylor's absence has him exercising poor angles and techniques while trying to pick up slants and rips by opposing DT's.

San Diego QB Jim Harbaugh has done a nice job avoiding blitzing linebackers and penetrating defensive lineman lately, buying time for himself in the pocket. Time in the pocket is significant because, when hurried by the blitz, Harbaugh is forced to throw short to the likes of Kenny Bynum and TE Freddie Jones. Bynum turned a five yard leave from Harbaugh into an 80-yard score last week in Minnesota and Jones is currently second among AFC TE's in receptions (42) and yards (496).

Cleveland's secondary has been using more one-on-one coverage lately, but against Charger WR Jeff Graham this could serve as a problem. Graham has been the beneficiary of Harbaugh's recent roll, catching 11 passes for 224 yards over the past two games. If Graham is pressed at the LOS by the likes of CB Ryan McNeil, he'll use his natural athleticism to get behind the corner and big plays will follow.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category CLE SD
Punt return avg. 27 28
Kickoff return avg. 20 27
Opp. punt return avg. 17 19
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 10 26
Time of possession 31 21
Bynum has brought some life to the San Diego kick return unit, averaging 24 yards per return. Charger punter Darren Bennett has shown he can now put the ball inside of the opponents 20, having done so three times last week. John Carney remains solid as the San Diego PK. Although the Browns coverage on both kickoffs and punts needs significant improvement, Ronnie Powell has been good returning kicks this season, averaging over 20 yards a pop. Chris Gardocki remains one of the NFL's most consistent punters at 44 yards a boom.

Key matchups
  • Browns WR Kevin Johnson vs. Chargers DCs Lewis, Dimry, and Shaw
    Johnson is the only real offensive threat that the Browns have in their passing game. So, although they will move him around in an effort to get single coverage matchups, it is likely that the Chargers will double him with the knowledge that, if they shut him down, it basically shuts down the Cleveland vertical passing game. The Charger corners will have their eye on Johnson all day and will try to prevent him from getting behind the secondary.

  • Chargers WRs Jeff Graham and Mikhael Ricks vs. Browns DCs Daylon McCutcheon and Ryan McNeil
    The Chargers are hard-pressed to muster a lot of offense in the passing game, although they were successful last week versus a suspect Minnesota Vikings defense in a losing effort. Although Cleveland's corners are playing hard, they are not very experienced. Without a strong run game, the Chargers may look to move the ball in the passing game. They must find some big plays somewhere in this offense to take pressure off their defense.

  • Chargers LB Junior Seau vs. Browns QB Tim Couch
    Although the Charger defense is starting to show signs of tiring, Seau is still a one-man wrecking crew and is all over the field. San Diego's defensive scheme allows him to freelance a lot, so don't be surprised if he blitzes Couch all day.

    Cleveland will win if...
  • The Couch-to-Johnson passing combo clicks. The Browns have an offense that is not very explosive and their best chance for making big plays is in their rookie passing combo. They must loosen up the Charger defense with some deep plays in the passing game.

  • They can run the football and wear down a tired Charger defense. They have not been able to do this consistently all season, but it is certainly the right formula for beating the Chargers, as they are really starting to fade.

  • They can control the clock and win time of possession. The Browns are a team that does not score a lot of points, and they really struggle to move the football. They must get positive yardage on first and second down to prevent 3rd-and-long situations against the Charger defense. They need to play very efficient football game utilizing a ball-control passing-game philosophy for Tim Couch.

    San Diego will win if...

  • They can run the football and rest their tired defense. This is the formula that they anticipated they would live by heading into the season, but an injury to Natrone Means and lackluster play at the quarterback position has really diminished their ability to run the football and control the clock. If they can somehow find a run game that will sustain drives, it not only helps them in terms of time of possession, but also takes pressure off their defense, which is still very dangerous when rested.

  • They can create turnovers and give the offense a short field to work with. The Charger defense must be able to give their offense some help by taking matters into their own hands and taking the ball away from the Browns offense. The Charger offense seems incapable of mounting a lot of 80-yard drives and scoring a lot of points.

  • They can get any production at the QB position. The Chargers did have a glimpse of production in the passing game with a 400+ yard passing performance from Jim Harbaugh last week, but it was against a suspect Vikings defense. With a running game that is struggling, they need to make some big plays in the passing game to keep opposing defenses off-balance.

    The War Room edge
    This is not a very attractive football game on paper, as both of these teams are going through dismal seasons. The Charger defense, which started the year as one of the most dominating units in the NFL, is really starting to show signs of fatigue, as they are simply on the field too long. Cleveland on the other hand, has some hopes on offense with QB Tim Couch and WR Kevin Johnson, but do not have enough big play explosiveness on either side of the football to be a serious threat. It is difficult to see where the points will come from in this game, and although it could be very low scoring, the Charger defense should be good enough to confuse and slow down QB Tim Couch. The Chargers win an ugly low-scoring game at home.

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