Wednesday, December 1
The War Room
Green Bay offense vs. Chicago defense
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PACKERS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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26
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Pass
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5
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Tot. Yds.
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10
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Scoring
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16
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Int's allowed
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15
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Sacks allowed
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25
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BEARS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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21
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vs. Pass
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30
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Total yds. allowed
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28
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# of Ints.
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8
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# of Sacks
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31
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Turnover differential
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-4
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Brett Favre has had more success the past two games because he is taking what opposing defenses give him. Instead of forcing the ball into coverage, Favre has smartly dumped the ball off to RB Dorsey Levens or thrown the ball downfield in hopes of drawing pass interference calls on WR's Corey Bradford or Bill Schroeder.
An encouraging sign in the win over San Francisco was the involvement of WR Antonio Freeman in the intermediate passing game. Levens' work in the flats has drawn opposing coverage near the line of scrimmage, which will expose DCs Walt Harris and Terry Cousin this week.
The Packers' offensive line also did an excellent job of protecting Favre last week against a sluggish Niners pass rush. This week the Bears will target fill-in LOT Mike Wahle, who still is having a hard time adjusting to the move from guard.
Chicago has given up a number of big plays through the air all season but were not really tested on Thanksgiving Day against Detroit. One area the Bears must improve is defending the pass on third down. On the final drive last week, Dick Jauron's defense allowed three critical third down conversions which allowed Detroit to run out the clock.
Chicago's run defense seems to be getting more aggressive each week and it did a tremendous job of containing Detroit RB Greg Hill last week. DTs Mike Wells and Jim Flanigan must do a good job of occupying the Packers' interior line in order to free up MLB Sean Harris.
With Levens gaining the bulk of his yards outside, the Bears will run into trouble when Harris is forced to fight through trash inside. The biggest key to Levens' success the past two games has been the exceptional lead blocking of FB William Henderson, who has picked up the slack for a shuffled offensive line.
Chicago offense vs. Green Bay defense
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BEARS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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25
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Pass
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3
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Tot. Yds.
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7
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Scoring
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21
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Int's allowed
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16
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Sacks allowed
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27
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PACKERS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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28
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vs. Pass
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10
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Total yds. allowed
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20
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# of Ints.
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21
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# of Sacks
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22
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Turnover differential
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-5
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On offense, the Bears definitely have the advantage in the passing game with their multiple-receiver sets. Green Bay's secondary doesn't matchup well in man coverage against the Bears' athletic receiver corps, which means they'll need a good push up front without blitzing SS LeRoy Butler.
Although the plan to rest DE Vonnie Holliday on a situational basis worked well on Monday night against San Francisco -- as he got consistent pressure on Steve Stenstrom -- the Packers desperately need someone other than Holliday and Keith McKenzie to make a difference against the pass. If they are forced to go with a blitz-heavy scheme, QBs Cade McNown or Shane Matthews (Jim Miller was suspended for the final four games of the season) will pick apart the Packers defense.
Chicago's offense does an excellent job of creating individual matchups with motion and formation variation and they should be able to hurt the Packers underneath with WR Curtis Conway and over the top with Marcus Robinson and Bobby Engram. Robinson was held in check (4 rec., 66 yds.) in the first meeting but the Packers will have a much more difficult time with Conway now in the lineup.
Chicago had great success on the ground in the first meeting between these teams but they have since scrapped their four-back rotation. RB Curtis Enis, who rushed for 88 yards on 20 carries at Lambeau Field, will get the bulk of the work on Sunday.
Green Bay is giving up 129.1 yards on the ground per game and they were gashed by San Francisco last week despite using eight men in the box. Poor tackling continues to be a problem for the Packers, and they must do a better job of keeping contain on the edges. OLB's Jude Waddy and Anthony Davis didn't fare well against the Niners but the team hopes to get back George Koonce this week.
Special teams
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NFL RANK
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Category
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GB
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CHI
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Punt return avg.
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18
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4
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Kickoff return avg.
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31
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14
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Opp. punt return avg.
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15
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11
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Opp. kickoff ret. avg.
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13
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1
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Time of possession
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26
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15
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Green Bay released Desmond Howard on Tuesday, clearing the way for rookies DeMond Parker and Basil Mitchell on kickoffs and Antuan Edwards on punts. Edwards has shown promise, as he did last Monday with a 45-yard return, but neither of the kick return men have shown much this season. The Packers will have a hard time breaking anything against some of the best cover teams in the league. Chicago's swarming coverage teams came up with a huge play against the Lions, as special teams standout Keith Burns recovered a fumbled punt in the second half. RS Glyn Milburn continues to take advantage of seams when they are there. Milburn, who broke free for a 42-yard kickoff return late in the first half against Detroit, was held in check the first time these two teams met and he would like nothing more than to burn the team that cut him prior to the '98 season. Green Bay PK Ryan Longwell connected on field goals of 22 and 23 yards but a missed 30-yard attempt has the team concerned. With Longwell in a mini-slump and Chris Boniol struggling to gain any consistency, this one could get interesting if it stays close late.
Key matchups
Green Bay RDE Vonnie Holliday vs. Chicago LOT Blake Brockermeyer
Holliday has played over 95 percent of the defensive snaps all season and he is beginning to show signs of fatigue. Brockermeyer limited him to just three tackles in the previous matchup between these teams and Holliday needs to make more of an impact this time around.
Green Bay PK Ryan Longwell vs. Chicago PK Chris Boniol
The last meeting between these rivals was decided by a blocked Longwell field goal and this game could easily be decided by the kicking game. Boniol also missed a field goal that could have put the game out of reach in the fourth quarter and he can't afford another costly shank on Sunday.
Chicago LDT Jim Flanigan vs. Green Bay ROG Marco Rivera
Flanigan, who always seems to come up big against his hometown team, recorded a big sack in the first meeting. Rivera has held up fairly well all season but he's struggled the past three weeks in the run game.
Green Bay will win if...
If the offensive line gives RB Levens some room to work. Levens doesn't need much more than a crack to put up big numbers, but recent injuries to the offensive line have limited his effectiveness on the ground. The Bears did an excellent job last time around, holding the Packers to just two rushing first downs and Levens to just 3.0 yards per carry.
The defense does a better job on third down. Green Bay allowed Chicago to convert 6-of-14 (43 percent) in the previous matchup, including a couple of key receptions late in the game.
They don't let the Bears RB corps run wild. Last month, Chicago used a four-back rotation to pile up 160 yards on the ground against a soft Packers run defense. Green Bay's back seven has had tackling problems all season but that could be cleared up if the defensive line gets better penetration and forces Enis & Co. to dance behind the line of scrimmage.
Chicago will win if...
The secondary eliminates the deep ball. Green Bay's receivers, particularly Freeman, have had great success recently in the vertical passing game in Soldier Field. With Schroeder and Bradford starting to come around, the Packers could make it tough on a defensive backfield that has been burned all season. FS Chris Hudson is taking terrible angles in coverage and will be a "marked man" on Sunday.
They win the turnover battle. This is an easy area to point to in every game but turnovers will be especially important in a game where the conditions could play a factor. The Packers are an entirely different team when QB Favre takes care of the football and he appears to be settling into a nice rhythm.
They come out ready to play. The second half of their disappointing loss to Detroit shows what this team is capable of if they play with focus. After spotting the Lions a quick 21-point lead, they battled back nicely to make a game of it. Aside from a miserable first quarter, the Bears deserved to win that football game.
The War Room edge
The Bears always play the Packers tough at Soldier Field and Sunday's contest will be no different. Favre and either Matthews or McNown will have success against a pair of struggling secondaries and this one will again come down to the kicking game. Chicago DE Bryan Robinson won't get to PK Ryan Longwell's game-winner this time around. Packers stay alive in the NFC Central race and the Bears start planning for the draft.
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