Wednesday, December 1
The War Room
Kansas City offense vs. Denver defense
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CHIEFS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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13
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Pass
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20
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Tot. Yds.
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16
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Scoring
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7
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Int's allowed
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11
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Sacks allowed
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14
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BRONCOS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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13
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vs. Pass
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9
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Total yds. allowed
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7
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# of Ints.
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12
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# of Sacks
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38
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Turnover differential
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-2
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The Chiefs have shown an ability to move the ball this season, especially in their comeback win last week over the Raiders, but consistency has been the biggest problem. The running back position has been a carousel of personnel throughout the year, but Kansas City has been getting it done with mostly a running back-by-committee system.
Now, the Chiefs will head into Denver with two healthy backs, Bam Morris and rookie Mike Cloud, and feel confident about their situation. Morris is back in shape and below 255 pounds, but did not give the offense much production in the first half at Oakland. Cloud emerged last week as the team's new speed back, carrying the ball 11 times for 58 yards.
Denver's run defense got out to a horrific start this season, but the team has rallied around the play of its linebacking corps and now finds itself allowing just 96.3-yards on the ground per game. DT's Keith Traylor and Trevor Pryce have been clogging the middle, allowing linebackers to make plays on the move without having to fight through traffic. Bill Romanowski and Al Wilson are big-hitting linebackers who have created a presence in the middle of the field, while weakside linebacker Glenn plays very conservative and always seems to be in position to make plays.
The key to the Chiefs offensive attack is to run the ball to set up the pass, but against the Broncos it will be no easy task. If Denver keeps up its production up front, it will force the Chiefs to throw the ball to win, which plays into the hands of the Bronco defense.
Elvis Grbac is not an effective drop-back passer, but his ability to work off the play action fake is what makes him a formidable quarterback in this league. Look for the Chiefs to learn a lesson from last weeks win over the Raiders, as they spread the field more in catchup-mode and gave their receiving corps more looks down the field.
Kansas City will still look to establish the run game, but with a more spread out attack, it will put the offense in better position to take chances down field, while simultaneously opening up more room underneath for the running game to work.
The Broncos are confident in their cornerbacks -- Ray Crockett and Dale Carter -- ability to take away Kansas City's receivers on the outside. FS Eric Brown plays a critical role in Denver's pass defense, because he will be assigned to cover TE Tony Gonzalez off the line of scrimmage.
When Gonzalez is productive as a receiver in the middle of the field, it opens up a lot of room on the outside for his receivers to work. He has all the tools and is capable of stretching the defense down the seams. Brown will be forced into a lot of single-coverage situations on the tight end because of his potential as a receiver, which means that the Denver corners will get little help in the deep third.
Denver offense vs. Kansas City defense
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BRONCOS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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16
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Pass
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11
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Tot. Yds.
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12
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Scoring
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14
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Int's allowed
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12
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Sacks allowed
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24
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CHIEFS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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10
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vs. Pass
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19
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Total yds. allowed
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13
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# of Ints.
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18
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# of Sacks
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24
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Turnover differential
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+17
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The Broncos are excited about the way RB Olandis Gary has come along in just his first season. Gary has shown excellent vision as a rookie and has the type of quickness and burst that it takes to be a premier back in this league. This excites the Broncos coaching staff because they know the more they call his number, the less they have to throw the ball. Denver is now rushing the ball for an average of over 107 yards per game, but they face a stiff task this week when Kansas City's dominating front seven comes into town.
The game is going to be won or lost in the interior line, where the Broncos are going to have to clear some lanes for the Denver backs. The key to the Chiefs defense up front is McGlockton's presence and ability to draw a double team. This allows MLB Marvcus Patton to move around more freely in the middle of the field, opening up blitzing lanes in pass rush. McGlockton has all the physical tools, but his effort is spotty. He needs to play on every down Sunday to force the Broncos into the double team.
This could be a disastrous afternoon for young QB Brian Griese. The Broncos are coming off a bye week, which will give Griese more time to prepare and understand his reads, but the Chiefs corner play and aggressive attack is going to be a tremendous challenge for the young quarterback.
The Chiefs will take risks early in the game in order to get to Griese. Expect to see lots of man-to-man coverage on Denver's wideouts on 1st and 2nd downs. Seeing as the Broncos have had very little production from their third receiver spot, it allows the Chiefs to stay in their base set versus three-receiver sets, giving Kansas City better personnel in the blitz package.
The Broncos will be well-prepared for the Chiefs blitz scheme, but it will come down to execution. CB's James Hasty and Chris Dishman play critical roles because they are going to have to hold up with out much support to the inside on hot reads.
WR's Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey are going to be constantly battling press coverage off the line of scrimmage and it is their responsibility to pick up the blitz and find the vacated zone underneath. This has been a problem for the Broncos this season, which leads us to believe that the Chiefs pressure is going to be too much. As well as Griese is prepared for his hot-read assignments, there always seem to be breakdowns when it comes to game time execution.
Special teams
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NFL RANK
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Category
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KC
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DEN
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Punt return avg.
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13
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30
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Kickoff return avg.
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19
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6
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Opp. punt return avg.
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4
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30
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Opp. kickoff ret. avg.
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4
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14
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Time of possession
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13
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11
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Pete Stoyanovich has had a bit of an up and down season thus far, but connected on the game winner over the Buccaneers Sunday to up his field goal total to 18-of-23 on the season. Daniel Pope continues his struggles as the Chiefs punter, averaging just 41.6-yards per punt. Tamarick Vanover has been in and out this season because of injury, but when healthy he has been less of a threat than usual. Jason Elam is having the year that is expected of him as one of the league's top field goal kickers, hitting on 21-of-26 for the season. Tom Rouen is presently third in the league in punting average (45.5), but the concern with Rouen is that he has allowed 35.1% of his punts to be returned. Chris Watson is a threat every time he returns a kick, averaging 25.2-yards per return with a 71-yard long.
Key matchups
Denver RT Matt Lepsis vs. Kansas City DE Eric Hicks
This is a speed on speed matchup that features two undersized and inexperienced players at their respective positions. Hicks has great straightline speed and has been causing teams troubles with his burst off the ball. Lepsis, a converted tight end, has developed as an offensive tackle with his excellent footwork and quickness against the rush. This is not a highly touted matchup, but the outcome of this matchup will dictate how effective each team will be on this side of the ball.
Denver WR Rod Smith vs. Kansas City CB James Hasty
Smith has had a tremendous drop in production this season, but he is still a threat at the wide receiver position. Hasty is one of the league's top cover corners, and this should make for a very important man-to-man matchup on the outside. The Broncos are going to need to take some chances down field in order to keep the Chiefs honest on defense. If Hasty takes Smith out of the game, it will be a huge advantage for the Chiefs, because they will be allowed to cheat their safeties up closer to the line of scrimmage to be more of a presence in pass rush as well as in run support.
Kansas City TE Tony Gonzalez vs. Denver FS Eric Brown
Gonzalez needs to be more productive as a receiver for the Chiefs. He has all the tools and is capable of stretching the defense down the seams. Brown will be forced into a lot of single-coverage situations on the tight end because of his potential as a receiver, which should create more man-to-man matchups on the outside for Kansas City's wide outs. Gonzalez needs to do a better job of getting body position in order to make himself more of an option in the passing game.
Kansas City will win if...
RG Dan Neil cannot handle DT Chester McGlockton without having to turn to the double team. The key to the Chiefs defense up front is McGlockton's presence and ability to draw a double team. This allows MLB Marvcus Patton to move around more freely in the middle of the field and opens up some blitzing lanes in pass rush. McGlockton has all the physical tools, but his effort is spotty. He needs to play on every down Sunday to force the Broncos into the double team.
QB Elvis Grbac makes the throws off play-action. Grbac is the key to this offense. When he is on, the Chiefs play-action pass is one of the most potent weapons in the league. The problem for the Chiefs has been his inconsistency. The Chiefs work hard to establish the running game in order to create man-to-man coverage on their receivers off the play-action fake. If Grbac can consistently connect on play-action, it makes this offense that much more dynamic, allowing them to take more risks in the passing game.
MLB Marvcus Patton is active in the middle versus the run. Patton has done an excellent job of making plays in the middle of the field. The Broncos are going to look to establish the running game early on to take some of the pressure off of Brian Griese, which means that Patton is going to have to be a presence in the middle of the field. When Patton is not as active between the tackles, it forces the rest of the unit to over-commit and takes away from the effectiveness of this aggressive scheme.
Denver will win if...
DT's Trevor Pryce and Keith Traylor clog the middle versus the run. Kansas City's offensive scheme is predicated on their ability to run the ball between the tackles. Traylor and Pryce are big, physical defensive tackles that are capable of shutting down the running lanes and forcing the Chiefs to bounce the run game outside. With Rashaan Shehee sidelined with an ankle injury, the Chiefs are not capable of running the ball effectively outside. If Traylor and Pryce clog the middle if will force the Chiefs to throw the ball to win, something they have proven incapable of doing thus far.
TE Byron Chamberlain gets more involved in the passing game. Since the loss of Shannon Sharpe, Chamberlain has emerged as a huge threat in the middle of the field as a receiver. Chamberlain is a big presence, and causes a lot of matchup problems for opponents because of his size and athletic ability. The Broncos need to get the tight end more involved in the passing game in order to draw attention to the middle of the field, which will create more one-on-one situations for the wideouts.
QB Brian Griese holds up against Kansas City's aggressive blitz package. Kansas City is going to come after Brian Griese. Griese is improving with every start, but he still has a tendency to collapse under pressure and to make some poor decisions with the ball. The Broncos need to implement a passing attack that features a lot of hot reads and dump off passes to simplify Griese's reads against the blitz. If Griese can withstand the early onslaught of the Chiefs blitz package, it will back off the pressure and give him more room to work as the game goes on. However, if he folds early on, it will create a domino effect for this offense and take them out of their rhythm.
The War Room edge
The Broncos have another chance on Sunday to play the role of the spoiler in the AFC West. Denver, after stumbling out of the gates with injury and controversy, has strung together a remarkable run and is playing capable football for a team with so many problems. The Chiefs head into Mile High Stadium after stealing a game in Oakland and now stand just two games behind the Seahawks in the West. The key to this game is going to be the play of the quarterback position. For the Broncos, Brian Griese is going to have to stand up to the pressure that the Chiefs will undoubtedly provide. Denver's success offensively is predicated on Griese's maturity as a quarterback and his ability to make blitz reads. For the Chiefs, Elvis Grbac is going to have to give a consistent performance and take advantage of some man-to-man coverage on his wideouts, stemming from the play-action fake. The Broncos are playing at a high level again, but the Chiefs defensive pressure is going to be too much for the young Bronco offense to handle. Look for the Cheifs to struggle offensively, but steal another conference win on the road by dominating the game on the defensive side of the ball.
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